ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1121 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:11 am

Earl is starting to show up on the French Antilles radar site, and I found an animated flavor at
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?81
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1122 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:14 am

srainhoutx wrote:Already a hurricane ROCK. :wink:



just woke up.... cut me some slack!!! :lol:
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#1123 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:14 am

Uh...i Live 60 Miles North of NYC.SHould i worry? Cause it dosen't look good for me now.
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#1124 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:15 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Uh...i Live 60 Miles North of NYC.SHould i worry? Cause it dosen't look good for me now.



Bro that would be no...we will tell you when to worry.... :D
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#1125 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:17 am

Got it. Thanks Rock.
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#1126 Postby blazess556 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:18 am

earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms
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#1127 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:19 am

Looks like he continues to organize fairly well and race more west... looking for the more prononced wnw turn :roll: :eek: as it approaches too closely Barbuda right now!!! :double:
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Re:

#1128 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:21 am

blazess556 wrote:earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms

:eek: ? Sure that won't be good news for all the Leewards. Any link?
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#1129 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:21 am

blazess556 wrote:earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms


It will take several center passes to determine the exact motion.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1130 Postby terrapintransit » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:22 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

:eek:
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#1131 Postby Cryomaniac » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:23 am

blazess556 wrote:earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms


Hopefully just a wobble.

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and isn't based on any evidence. As such it shouldn't be used for any purpose

The longer Earl keeps moving vaguely west (so between 260 and 280) the more it pushes the cone west, which brings all kinds of possibilities. Even at a very large stretch the chance of it reaching the GOM.
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Re:

#1132 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:24 am

blazess556 wrote:earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms




which is what I dont understand unless the distance between Dee and Earl is such that the ridge has nosed down in front...and is starting to fill....
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Re: Re:

#1133 Postby blazess556 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:24 am

Gustywind wrote:
blazess556 wrote:earl is moving southwest according to recon vdms

:eek: ? Sure that won't be good news for all the Leewards. Any link?

yeah, but it sure isn't moving westnorthwest.
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#1134 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:26 am

Image

Moving west
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1135 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:30 am

He is pretty much trucking it west. When is he supposed to start turning north? I hope he does and soon, follows his sister Dee into the ocean.
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#1136 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:34 am

Wobble or not these things are not well welcomed too close from the Leewards.
Hope no more, that could have some implications on the final track of Earl.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1137 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:35 am

Will a Pro met or someone with a better handle on these steering currents help me out on how and why this will turn WNW then NW? I'm looking at this steering chart and know the patterns are changing constantly but the through that lifted Danielle out is almost due north of Earl. shouldn't it be moving in NW direction now being on the edge of the ridge to it's NE. The upper trough over Cuba doesn't show up on these charts.

Image

If I was guessing and that's all it would be guessing, I would think it would be moving due west to a tad SW then start re curving south of Cuba as the ridge over the Eastern seaboard shifted eastward.

I went back and check the charts for a deeper strom and think I can see what they and the models are counting on.
Image

pretty big difference.
Last edited by tailgater on Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1138 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:36 am

If it doesn't start gaining latitude soon, it will be in the Caribbean Sea and would put Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - at least - in the strongest part of the storm...
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Re:

#1139 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:38 am

CrazyC83 wrote:If it doesn't start gaining latitude soon, it will be in the Caribbean Sea and would put Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - at least - in the strongest part of the storm...



What strengh you put it right now?
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Re:

#1140 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:39 am

CrazyC83 wrote:If it doesn't start gaining latitude soon, it will be in the Caribbean Sea and would put Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - at least - in the strongest part of the storm...


Agreed. He needs to turn and soon if the current forecasts are going to verify. What effect would his path have on 97 aka future Fiona?
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