ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HUC]

On the high resolution Gpe radar appears to travel due west at this time!!!Perhaps Gusty can send a image of what wee are seeing on this radar???

[BatzVI]

Not a very comforting thought....shutters up, food bought, good to go...

[HURAKAN]

Bad graphic created by me!! But explains what we're trying to tell.

The big red dot is the center while the small black dot is the center fix. If you follow the center fix, then the system is moving WNW but in reality, the eye is moving W.

You shouldn't use just two fixes to tell track.

[Stephanie]

:uarrow:
Not a very comforting thought....shutters up, food bought, good to go...

Good to hear you're prepared!

[jinftl]

Great graphic...totally illustrates the point!!!

Bad graphic created by me!! But explains what we're trying to tell.

The big red dot is the center while the small black dot is the center fix. If you follow the center fix, then the system is moving WNW but in reality, the eye is moving W.

You shouldn't use just two fixes to tell track.

[emeraldislencguy]

if it moves 30 miles further west wouldnt that have some implications down the road if it moves due north

[cheezyWXguy]

Bad graphic created by me!! But explains what we're trying to tell.

The big red dot is the center while the small black dot is the center fix. If you follow the center fix, then the system is moving WNW but in reality, the eye is moving W.

You shouldn't use just two fixes to tell track.

Thank you, that was exactly the point i was trying to make.

[artist]

On the high resolution Gpe radar appears to travel due west at this time!!!Perhaps Gusty can send a image of what wee are seeing on this radar???

can you keep us posted on what is happening there in the one started here as well? We have you guys on our thoughts. Stay safe!

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109178

[Stephanie]

if it moves 30 miles further west wouldnt that have some implications down the road if it moves due north

It could, but we'd have to see how strong or weak the trough coming through the Great Lakes will be.

[BatzVI]

Unfortunately I think there may be a lot of people that aren't as prepared as they should be....I kept hearing "it's going north of us" all week...glad I have storm2k to keep me up to date....

[TheBurn]

[HURAKAN]

Eye trying to see

[jinftl]

Assuming all other conditions are assumed to be kept constant....but let's say the trough that is going to swing down from the Great Lakes is moving at 20 mph when it takes shape later this week, and let's say the current forecast models are factoring that trough moving at 15 mph into what the forecast track is.

In that scenario, the trough moving in quicker means the storm won't get a chance to move as far nw or even north before it turns east. Since it is forecast to be far enough offshore at that time, it won't matter too much if Earl turns northeast 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras or or if turns northeast 175 miles east of Cape Hatteras.

Or what if the models are forecasting earl moving nw at 14 mph in a few days but he actually moves nw at 12 mph. Over the course of 24-hours, that is a 48 mile difference in forecast point just from a 2 mph reduction in forward speed. Over 3 days, that is now a 150 mile difference in forecast point!

In other words, 5-days out, there are so many unknown variables that could go one way or the other in effecting the location of the storm. It is the infinite combinations and outcomes of current factors like speed and intensity with atmospheric conditions in constant flux that are forecast to evolve that ultimately determine the outcome track. This is what makes the job of forecasters so complicated....it requires merging the present data with forecast future data and both are alway in flux! Location now or in the short-term (24-36 hours out) is just one factor in the forecast down the road....not the only factor.

if it moves 30 miles further west wouldnt that have some implications down the road if it moves due north

[gatorcane]

What a rapidly developing system. Stay safe those in the northern leewards and puerto rico.

[UpTheCreek]

Keep an eye on the speed, that's when it'll initiate it's turn. Well, according to NHC anyway! Hey Emerald Isle, long time, no see!

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wondering-will all the OBS be posted here? or in the Carribean thread?

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks new bern guy
we r getting anxious here

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/07L.EARL/tmi/tmi_85v/20100829.1305.trmm.x.tmi_85v.07LEARL.65kts-985mb-171N-577W.32pc.jpg

Latest microwave

Still looks ragged as recon has suggested, but this thing is forming up fast. I wouldnt be surprised to see the eye really peek out in a few hours.

[tailgater]

http://freeuploadimages.org/images/ntzrgkkmuu8ygf2a4mh.jpg

Bad graphic created by me!! But explains what we're trying to tell.

The big red dot is the center while the small black dot is the center fix. If you follow the center fix, then the system is moving WNW but in reality, the eye is moving W.

You shouldn't use just two fixes to tell track.

That is true but this center is not that broad as seen in your other map


Might just be a jog but it was definitely north of west.