ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Recon just reported a pressure of 978mb extrapolated.

That's what 8mb down in the last 2-3 hours?

Down 7mb the last 3 hours.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Recon just reported a pressure of 978mb extrapolated.

That's what 8mb down in the last 2-3 hours?

Down 7mb the last 3 hours.

Impressive

[cycloneye]

Crazy,you think 75kts now?

[HURAKAN]

Should be a Cat 2 when it reached the Leeward Islands

[CrazyC83]

Unless higher estimates come in on the next pass, I would put the intensity at 70-75 kt for the intermediate advisory - with 65 kt SFMR in the SE quad, there would surely be stronger winds in the NW quad.

[Brent]

Not surprised by recon, looks really good on visible.

[AdamFirst]

The Canadian in the central bahamas before it lifts out...

That is a bit of a westward shift. I'll save the crow if the Euro verifies.

[scogor]

Can anyone post a good link to radar for St. Kitts? Thanks.

[MGC]

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles. 7mb in 3 hours??? RI?....MGC

[Stephanie]

The early models were wrong with Earl. Antigua and Anguilla should get a strong swipe or even direct hurricane hit. Anegada in the British Virgins is under the gun if the recurve doesn't happen as sharply as predicted.

Look at the hazy look to Earl and better structure. It is telegraphing an intensity increase.

That's the scary thing. Not only would this catch off guard the citizens of those islands, but even the travellers. Nothing suggested a stronger storm than a Cat 1 in earlier models, nevermind a hit.

[CrazyC83]

I'd at least go up to 70 kt based on the pressure drop and SE quad report, however I would wait to see what comes out of the NW quad to see if a higher intensity is warranted.

[MortisFL]

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles.....MGC

That sounds about right. Exactly why you really cant trust a forecast path outside of 48-72 hrs.

[jlauderdal]

well the 12Z CMC is makes it to the central bahamas before starting to turn...quite a bit farther west then the 00z .. yeah its the cmc.. lol

dont rip the cmc, its been good the last few years so has the euro...if you want to rip something than go after the gfs and all its little buddies like the hwrf and gfdl

[emeraldislencguy]

how would a stronger storm effect the track

[gatorcane]

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles. 7mb in 3 hours??? RI?....MGC

As I mentioned earlier, the latest 11AM advisory they actually shifted the cone track right some when we can clearly see it is moving just a bit north of west.

CMC just ran and it shifts west quite a bit actually with it passing directly over some of the extreme SE bahama islands as a major hurricane. That cone should have been shifted left a tad I thought at least through 72 hours to account for the westward movement.

[jlauderdal]

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles.....MGC

That sounds about right. Exactly why you really cant trust a forecast path outside of 48-72 hrs.

yep, what we do know is if you are in the crosshairs outside 72H you can be very confident you arent taking a direct hit

[jlauderdal]

No westward shift? On Thursday the NHC forecast Earl to be near 17.8 54.0 today....actual 17.2 58.4. A westward error of 4.4 degrees or about 270 nautical miles. 7mb in 3 hours??? RI?....MGC

300 miles of error is about right by their own admission

[CrazyC83]

Seems the strongest winds were missed this pass, as the highest estimates are about 60 kt in the NW quad (weaker than the left-rear SE quad which supported 65 kt!). I'd go up to 70 kt thinking the strongest winds in the north side were not sampled based on the SE quad observation, plus the pressure drop.

[gatorcane]

Folks, check out the forecast for IKE back in 2008. Look how it was supposed to recurve east of Florida and yet the cone had a NW bend to it but the entire cone kept shifting left. Ended up at least 1000 miles west of where it was originally supposed to turn. In this case Hanna's outflow helped to dive Ike WSW, though the ECMWF and GFDL sniffed this out and forecasted Ike to hit Cuba several days prior.

I'm not saying the error will be that bad at all with this one, just saying it has happened:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[cyclonic chronic]

pressure is down. if the winds dont respond to the pressure drop the islands could escape sustained hurricane force winds. but we,ve seen storms with a lower than usual pressure, compared to their winds, have their winds catch up in a hurry. i hope all in the islands have been watching this for the past few days and arent running around like chickens with their heads cut off today. good luck. all of us in the s.w. u.s., even florida, need to watch how far west it goes.
on a positive note it looks on the newest radar frames that its not moving as fast. maybe this is the slow-down before the turn to the n.w.