ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Well guys you may be right. I do agree the ecmwf is usually better with long-range synoptics but considering the last run has it nearly flattening the se coast of florida with what looks to be a cat 5, maybe I am being a little biased

[ColinDelia]

There's been some dry air surrounding the Northern half of the storm and some shear over the southern portion today.


Looks like the CAPE (Convective available potential energy) will be increasing in the next 24 hours

Current CAPE


Forecast CAPE (24 hours)

[AdamFirst]

It looks like garbage. I expect the percentage to go down at 2 PM.

[Portastorm]

Well guys you may be right. I do agree the ecmwf is usually better with long-range synoptics but considering the last run has it nearly flattening the se coast of florida with what looks to be a cat 5, maybe I am being a little biased

Understandably so, gator. I think we all (or most of us) hope that 240-hr Euro depiction is wrong and this storm curves harmlessly into the open Atlantic.

[ColinDelia]

Excellent vorticity for an invest

[Scorpion]

It looks like garbage. I expect the percentage to go down at 2 PM.

Absolutely not.

[ColinDelia]

Conditions seem quite a bit better as it heads west but sure has lost some convection the past 6 hours.

6 hours ago


Now

[cycloneye]

Convection has to come back before they upgrade,even if the structure looks great.

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ... woudn't that be too close one storm to the other? Maybe Fujiwara

[perk]

Well guys you may be right. I do agree the ecmwf is usually better with long-range synoptics but considering the last run has it nearly flattening the se coast of florida with what looks to be a cat 5, maybe I am being a little biased

Just a little.

[weatherwindow]

72 hours ... woudn't that be too close one storm to the other? Maybe Fujiwara

looks like no more than 600mi...and that little hook on 97l's track may presume some interaction

[perk]

It looks like garbage. I expect the percentage to go down at 2 PM.

Be patient, the structure is well in tack.

[Sanibel]

Anyone else think that since the models were too far right with Earl that they might be too far right with 97L? We could have some alarm bells in the next couple of days if this error trend continues. Or is there another trough due for the East Coast?

[fci]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

[ColinDelia]

Holding at 80%

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

[Scorpion]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

When the most reputable model continually shows a gigantic threat 6 runs in a row its not for nothing

[jinftl]

That scenario could have the opposite result down the road in theory...a weaker system fighting to organize in the wake of dry air/sal now, and increasingly the shear from earl, could continue to head across the atlantic and once earl moves out, 97L might find itself in a more favorable environment for developing, except now she would be in the backyard of the caribbean or s.e. u.s. If a ridge builds in after Earl lifts out, that could steer the newly empowered 97L west toward land. Forecasting the exact timing and location of troughs and ridges a week or more out is a crap shoot.

Anyone else think that since the models were too far right with Earl that they might be too far right with 97L? We could have some alarm bells in the next couple of days if this error trend continues. Or is there another trough due for the East Coast?

[jaxfladude]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

When the most reputable model continually shows a gigantic threat 6 runs in a row its not for nothing

The Great Day after Labor Day Hurricane! I hope that this does not happen at all.

[jlauderdal]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

When the most reputable model continually shows a gigantic threat 6 runs in a row its not for nothing

whats the most reputable model?

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. The 12Z GFS, GFDL, HWRF and UKMET continue to show the NW turn away from the SE Coast. I cant wait to see the 12Z Euro today to see if it continues with it's SE Coast threat or if it will join the aforementioned models.