ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

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[Sanibel]

Systems with that nautilus shape and with the majority of their convection to the south of the eye in the warm tropics sometimes become strong storms.

[bob rulz]

Its visible appearance is impressive but it still looks disorganized on IR. It could reach cat 2 before landfall in the islands though as it's strengthening at a pretty steady, although not yet rapid, clip.

yeah its still being sheared..

I think the northerly shear is starting to abate a little bit though...the banding has improved pretty significantly on the north/northwest side today.

[Aric Dunn]

Its visible appearance is impressive but it still looks disorganized on IR. It could reach cat 2 before landfall in the islands though as it's strengthening at a pretty steady, although not yet rapid, clip.

yeah its still being sheared..

I think the northerly shear is starting to abate a little bit though...the banding has improved pretty significantly on the north/northwest side today.

yeah dont get me wrong the shear less than it was yesterday but its still enough to disrupt the outflow on the NE side ..

[LowndesCoFire]

Folks, check out the forecast for IKE back in 2008. Look how it was supposed to recurve east of Florida and yet the cone had a NW bend to it but the entire cone kept shifting left. Ended up at least 1000 miles west of where it was originally supposed to turn. In this case Hanna's outflow helped to dive Ike WSW, though the ECMWF and GFDL sniffed this out and forecasted Ike to hit Cuba several days prior.

I'm not saying the error will be that bad at all with this one, just saying it has happened:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I remember this well. Went away for about five days where I was out of communication range when Ike was still chugging along through the Atlantic. When I left, Ike was forecast to stay out out to sea, east of Florida. When I got back in communication range, Ike was heading right to Texas and I was coming home to it! Crazy stuff. It wasn't even forecast to head to the Gulf when I left, but by the time I got back it was not only going to the Gulf but heading as far west as Texas.

Hopefully the forecasting has improved since then and the models are more accurate. But Ike wasn't that long ago and it did happen for sure then.

When was Ike 2008 ever progged to remain at sea??

[LowndesCoFire]

Looking a floater imagery, Earl looks to possibly miss upcoming forecast point a hair to the North...unless Im seeing a wobble. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

if you click on that link you will see

[Nimbus]

I think the northerly shear is starting to abate a little bit though...the banding has improved pretty significantly on the north/northwest side today.

Danielle blew out to the NE in a hurry so the anticyclone associated with her is diminishing.

The official track looks good for a couple days, but I'm not sure what would happen if Earl stayed south and rolled into the SE Bahamas or stalled south of 27N. At the moment it looks like a high is trying to build near Florida so the quicker Earl makes the turn to the NW the better.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Dean4Storms]

Prayers to all those in the islands, stay safe!!

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely in a strengthening phase at the moment. How rapid and how much better it gets is the big million dollar question.

[pavelbure224]

Maybe im still hung over from last night but if Earl gets stronger does that mean the more west it goes?

[MortisFL]

Maybe im still hung over from last night but if Earl gets stronger does that mean the more west it goes?

No..

[pavelbure224]

ok

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Maybe im still hung over from last night but if Earl gets stronger does that mean the more west it goes?

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I'd say the opposite considering the over all synoptic pattern that should be in place honestly.

[Dean4Storms]

The fact it has struggled to deepen is what put it threatening the islands now!

[thetruesms]

Sometimes the plus in catching up with a thread is that you get to see the storm's development over several hours without actually having to wait for it to happen in real time. In flipping through the past 10-20 pages (wherever it was I started), the strengthening of the storm is very readily apparent. Which would be really cool if it weren't bearing down on people at the moment

[artist]

Sometimes the plus in catching up with a thread is that you get to see the storm's development over several hours without actually having to wait for it to happen in real time. In flipping through the past 10-20 pages (wherever it was I started), the strengthening of the storm is very readily apparent. Which would be really cool if it weren't bearing down on people at the moment

since it is strengthening do you think that could be better for the islands, i.e. pulling it just a touch further north of them?

[Gustywind]

Prayers to all those in the islands, stay safe!!

Tkanks

[KatDaddy]

Earl is now wrapping up rapidly. I hope the N Leewards and Virgin Islands are ready. I could not believe the nonchalant webcam images earlier from the Virgin Islands.