ATL: FIONA - Models

[blazess556]

216..957 mb

cape verde season is still open with the ridging over the Atlantic

[CYCLONE MIKE]

216..957 mb

Katrina 2005 Part II The good thing is it is so far out chances of this happening are about 1%. BUT the trend as has been for a couple of days is further south and west. This trend is not our friend this go around.

[Ivanhater]

[bob rulz]

Isn't the GFS designed as more of a mid-range model anyway?

[South Texas Storms]

where does the euro have it making landfall at? Around lake charles?

[GeneratorPower]

Ok. So the Euro clearly makes Cream of Chicken soup out of the remnants of New Orleans. The fact is, though, even the Euro can't resolve the final landfall point so far in advance. It's the general idea of a GOM hit that is interesting.

[Ivanhater]

939 mb (actual will be lower) turning NW into the weakness forming along the northern gulf

[johngaltfla]

Ivan, I hope those model runs do not bear out even close to that. A 950ish mb storm in the Gulf of Mexico would be a dangerous event for our region right now. Ah well, Earl has my attention for now...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well Mike it is better to go ahead and get it over with now, because we all know by tomorrow it will be further east or west more than likely. Still though this will get some peoples attention in a hurry!

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, I hope those model runs do not bear out even close to that. A 950ish mb storm in the Gulf of Mexico would be a dangerous event for our region right now. Ah well, Earl has my attention for now...

Global showing 939 mb will likely be in the single 900's

[Dean4Storms]

Good Lord, let's hope this solution is wrong!

[Migle]

Good thing I am a GFS hugher

[Ikester]

I just updated my facebook. LOL!

[WeatherEmperor]

I can't wait to see which model will change first. Will the GFS change it's solution to match the Euro's or will the Euro change it's solution to match the GFS? I know that some of the non GFS based models like the Ukmet and Nogaps turn it North and keep it away from the US but the battle between the GFS and Euro is on.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

where does the euro have it making landfall at? Around lake charles?

Probably between Intracoastal City and Morgan City.

[Ivanhater]

Notice the trends when the Ensembles come out, the operational shifts to their solution next run. Ensembles showed mostly Central Gulf last night, and the operational followed.

[Vortmax1]

Yep...the ECM is now forecasting what I mentioned and was thinking earlier...further South and West:

[weatherguy2]

whoa:

[SFLcane]

Will be watching this one....

[Vortmax1]

Ensembles showed mostly Central Gulf last night, and the operational followed.

Yes...Bingo!
There it is!