ATL: FIONA - Models

[Ivanhater]

130 mph approaching New Orleans

[ronjon]

It's way out there folks so it's mere entertainment now. This may be about the furthest south and west it goes and the next run may windshield wiper back some but who knows. The 12Z CMC still looks further north (perhaps a FL hit past 144 hrs),and the other models are still in recurve mode. With the new ECM, we have a potential long term track spread from Bermuda to Cuba...

Note:

I did notice the new BAMD is much further south and west now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Michael, whats your gut tell you about this scenario? You think the Euro will come around to the GFS solution or vice versa. IMO I really believe the later as i have been saying the last couple of days. Just think Earl will pull out quickly once he makes the turn and any weakness left behind will fill in as 97L approaches, then its west she goes.

[GeneratorPower]

Anybody know if the EURO got fed the upper air data from the NOAA flights?

[Ikester]

It's not important to focus on any part of the coast right now, but rather that somebody along the gulf could receive a 'POTENTIAL' catestrophic hurricane around Sept. 9th. Anybody from Brownsville to Panama City needs to keep a close eye now...

[I-wall]

Ivan, how confident are you that Fiona will enter the gulf?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It's not important to focus on any part of the coast right now, but rather that somebody along the gulf could receive a 'POTENTIAL' catestrophic hurricane around Sept. 9th. Anybody from Brownsville to Panama City needs to keep a close eye now...

Indeed, the system doesn't even have a defined llc yet. The model prodictions made at this stage, are of zero use other than to maybe sniff out the general pattern imo.

[artist]

It's way out there folks so it's mere entertainment now. This may be about the furthest south and west it goes and the next run may windshield wiper back some but who knows. The 12Z CMC still looks further north (perhaps a FL hit past 144 hrs),and the other models are still in recurve mode. With the new ECM, we have a potential long term track spread from Bermuda to Cuba...

Note:

I did notice the new BAMD is much further south and west now.

but the BAMD is for a (D) deep storm and is really not very good closer in to the states. I think they say it is better east of 20n and then goes down hill from there. Somebody correct me if I am wrong.

[stormchazer]

It's not important to focus on any part of the coast right now, but rather that somebody along the gulf could receive a 'POTENTIAL' catestrophic hurricane around Sept. 9th. Anybody from Brownsville to Panama City needs to keep a close eye now...

I think I would add peninsular Florida and Puerto Rico/Bahamas too.

[ROCK]

Anybody know if the EURO got fed the upper air data from the NOAA flights?

GP I think it is but no good it will do us right now since we are talking long range....


Ivan, ha we talked about this earlier.. told you might not have to chase too far....

interesting scenario and makes sense with positive NAO and strong ALT ridging.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good thing Earl is out there and will be for awhile, not downplaying anyone potentially getting affected. Otherwise once the media got ahold of runs like this the media hype would be on!

[thetruesms]

Yeah, you're right about the Euro and GFS being different. But how many times has the Euro had to "catch up" to the GFS solution? I can't remember any. Not one time. I remember dozens of times where the GFS finally catches on about 2 days after the Euro sniffs something out correctly.

If you look back at the NHC verification reports, the GFS and the Euro have more or less split the past 4 years.

Where the perceived "huge" superiority comes from is a bit of confirmation bias. GFS tends to favor a more progressive pattern, frequently breaking down strong ridges, generally leading to more storms out to sea. Nobody pays attention to/remembers these storms. ECMWF tends to favor stronger ridges, taking storms further west. When it does better, it tends to affect more people, making the storms more memorable. Since people are more likely to remember storms in which the ECMWF outperformed the GFS, it gets an inflated reputation. In reality, the two have performed much more comparably.

Since the recent changes to the GFS, though, there has been a more significant gap between the two, with the ECMWF doing somewhat better. It seems like the GFS still makes plausible scenarios, and then goes and does something funky with them (i.e. its stubborn insistence on a lead CV storm's stalling out in order to devour the trailing storm; and yet, it still seems to be verifying better than NOGAPS ). This is where things get complicated, though, as for now the GFS seems to be more with the group than the more reliable Euro, which is behaving more like an outlier at the moment - though both are on the left side of the guidance envelope.

While for now, 97L appears to be more of an east coast issue, the Euro clearly shows what stronger ridging could do to this storm, and is a possibility to be very strongly aware of. In the short term, we need to be looking at how 97L's development proceeds, Earl's strength/speed/track, and the mid-latitude wavetrain evolution to see how things will develop.

[Brent]

130 mph approaching New Orleans

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nds240.gif

[Ivanhater]

Hey Michael, whats your gut tell you about this scenario? You think the Euro will come around to the GFS solution or vice versa. IMO I really believe the later as i have been saying the last couple of days. Just think Earl will pull out quickly once he makes the turn and any weakness left behind will fill in as 97L approaches, then its west she goes.

I always look at the ensembles, and they have been in great agreement with the Operational with the ridge building in and pushing Fiona west. Now the Canadian is latching on..

[ROCK]

the GOM has gone nuclear..... any thing making landfall in here is in a world of hurt...of course all thing being equal....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Canelaw99]

Yeah, you're right about the Euro and GFS being different. But how many times has the Euro had to "catch up" to the GFS solution? I can't remember any. Not one time. I remember dozens of times where the GFS finally catches on about 2 days after the Euro sniffs something out correctly.

If you look back at the NHC verification reports, the GFS and the Euro have more or less split the past 4 years.

Where the perceived "huge" superiority comes from is a bit of confirmation bias. GFS tends to favor a more progressive pattern, frequently breaking down strong ridges, generally leading to more storms out to sea. Nobody pays attention to/remembers these storms. ECMWF tends to favor stronger ridges, taking storms further west. When it does better, it tends to affect more people, making the storms more memorable. Since people are more likely to remember storms in which the ECMWF outperformed the GFS, it gets an inflated reputation. In reality, the two have performed much more comparably.

Since the recent changes to the GFS, though, there has been a more significant gap between the two, with the ECMWF doing somewhat better. It seems like the GFS still makes plausible scenarios, and then goes and does something funky with them (i.e. its stubborn insistence on a lead CV storm's stalling out in order to devour the trailing storm; and yet, it still seems to be verifying better than NOGAPS ). This is where things get complicated, though, as for now the GFS seems to be more with the group than the more reliable Euro, which is behaving more like an outlier at the moment - though both are on the left side of the guidance envelope.

While for now, 97L appears to be more of an east coast issue, the Euro clearly shows what stronger ridging could do to this storm, and is a possibility to be very strongly aware of. In the short term, we need to be looking at how 97L's development proceeds, Earl's strength/speed/track, and the mid-latitude wavetrain evolution to see how things will develop.

Thanks for this. As someone who doesn't follow the models closely, it's nice to get a sense of how they've faired over the last few years.

[Blown Away]

EURO is the outlier for sure, but there is a trend brewing!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

the GOM has gone nuclear..... any thing making landfall in here is in a world of hurt...of course all thing being equal....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Lets not forget though ROCK, there have been numerous opportunitys for something to get going in the gulf this year and everything has fallen apart SO FAR, besides Alex. Not to say it will again but it is definately something to keep in the back of our minds.

[thetruesms]

[img]http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/4519/97lp.jpg[img]

EURO is the outlier for sure, but there is a trend brewing!

When it's something outdated like LBAR, or a BAM outiside of 20N doing things like this, it's very easy to toss . . . even when it's NOGAPS doing it, it's not too difficult to ignore. But when the Euro does it, yes, it certainly make you pause and go . . . "hmm, now what would happen to cause this, and how does that compare with what the others are telling me, and what's been happening to this point?"

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody please post a link to the Long Range Canadian? The model page I use only goes out to 144 hrs. Thanks.