ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

I'm looking at a somewhat high-res presentation of the hour-by-hour projected wind speeds as Earl passes the NE Caribbean tomorrow. It shows TS winds brushing the northern tip of Guadeloupe island late tonight/early tomorrow morning (about 35-40 mph sustained with higher gusts on the island of Guadeloupe). Continuing west, the outer part of the possible 40 mph wind field brushes the BVI early tomorrow afternoon, staying JUST north of St. Croix. The TS wind field passes just NE of San Juan tomorrow evening, maybe 20 miles NE. Hurricane force winds stay north of the islands on the current forecast track, and Earl may be tracking a little right of the forecast now.

So, good news for the islands, hopefully.

[cheezyWXguy]

Welp it looks like a big convective blow up is about to occur, theres a new tower right over what appears to be the center. With shear slowly decreasing and the pressure continuing to drop, it wouldnt surprise me if this is the burst that allowed earl to really clean up his presentation on IR.

[wxman57]

Eye is about ready to pop open. Major hurricane tomorrow, most likely.

[thetruesms]

since it is strengthening do you think that could be better for the islands, i.e. pulling it just a touch further north of them?

In a general sense, yes - I think it looks to yank just far enough north to keep hurricane-strength winds offshore. But at the same time, it's so close that all it would take is a little left wobble to change that. I think the wisest course of action (and it seems like the one at least most are taking) is to prepare for a hurricane, because it that margin is razor-thin and can quickly disappear.

[chris_fit]

Eye is about ready to pop open. Major hurricane tomorrow, most likely.

57.... Thoughts on forecast track?

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

I'm looking at a somewhat high-res presentation of the hour-by-hour projected wind speeds as Earl passes the NE Caribbean tomorrow. It shows TS winds brushing the northern tip of Guadeloupe island late tonight/early tomorrow morning (about 35-40 mph sustained with higher gusts on the island of Guadeloupe. Continuing west, the outer part of the possible 40 mph wind field brushes the BVI early tomorrow afternoon, staying JUST north of St. Croix. The TS wind field passes just NE of San Juan tomorrow evening, maybe 20 miles NE. Hurricane force winds stay north of the islands on the current forecast track, and Earl may be tracking a little right of the forecast now.

So, good news for the islands, hopefully.

That is good news if the track verifies. But if Earl deepens more than forecast,that windfield expands right?

[wxman57]

Eye is about ready to pop open. Major hurricane tomorrow, most likely.

57.... Thoughts on forecast track?

I think hurricane force winds stay north of the islands, with the possible exception of Antigua and Anguilla, the extreme NE islands. Beyond then, a recurve east of the U.S. appears most likely. Could threaten Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though.

[Swimdude]

Eye is about ready to pop open. Major hurricane tomorrow, most likely.

Or sooner. Depends on a lot of things, but the size of the eye is certainly one of those things.

[HURAKAN]

I would put the intensity at 5 pm at 75-80 knots range and pressure at 973-975 mb range

[Ivanhater]

She is starting to see

[Aric Dunn]

Thats a shadow.. not the eye..

[HURAKAN]

cool pic

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

You can watch Earl on radar here:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure that is a shadow

[wxman57]

I'm looking at a somewhat high-res presentation of the hour-by-hour projected wind speeds as Earl passes the NE Caribbean tomorrow. It shows TS winds brushing the northern tip of Guadeloupe island late tonight/early tomorrow morning (about 35-40 mph sustained with higher gusts on the island of Guadeloupe. Continuing west, the outer part of the possible 40 mph wind field brushes the BVI early tomorrow afternoon, staying JUST north of St. Croix. The TS wind field passes just NE of San Juan tomorrow evening, maybe 20 miles NE. Hurricane force winds stay north of the islands on the current forecast track, and Earl may be tracking a little right of the forecast now.

So, good news for the islands, hopefully.

That is good news if the track verifies. But if Earl deepens more than forecast,that windfield expands right?

The forecast has hurricane force winds extending about 30 miles SW of the center as it passes to your north, Luis. That would be about 90nm north of Puerto Rico. Well to your north. It would take a significant track shift to hit you.

[artist]

I'm looking at a somewhat high-res presentation of the hour-by-hour projected wind speeds as Earl passes the NE Caribbean tomorrow. It shows TS winds brushing the northern tip of Guadeloupe island late tonight/early tomorrow morning (about 35-40 mph sustained with higher gusts on the island of Guadeloupe). Continuing west, the outer part of the possible 40 mph wind field brushes the BVI early tomorrow afternoon, staying JUST north of St. Croix. The TS wind field passes just NE of San Juan tomorrow evening, maybe 20 miles NE. Hurricane force winds stay north of the islands on the current forecast track, and Earl may be tracking a little right of the forecast now.

So, good news for the islands, hopefully.

thanks for that, wxman57. Hopefully Earl will keep away from making actual landfall on the islands as well as not bring too much fast and heavy rain.

[Gustywind]

Waouw i can tell you that the tstorms are becoming very strong in my area! They're bombing nicely since 10 minutes. Ligtnings are pretty frequent and BRIGHT !
Be sincerely aware HUC and the others in the islands. This outer band is very solid
!! I'm close to lose my Internet connexion with each tstorms bombing.
Gustywind