ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

When the most reputable model continually shows a gigantic threat 6 runs in a row its not for nothing

whats the most reputable model?

Good question, I guess it depends on where you live and where the model is showing landfall.

[Ikester]

What's really scary is the prospect of this getting into the GOM like the euro ensembles show. Once it gets into the loop current....my God in Heaven.

[CrazyC83]

What's really scary is the prospect of this getting into the GOM like the euro ensembles show. Once it gets into the loop current....my God in Heaven.

Only if the shear relaxes though. If Earl somehow got into the Gulf, then I can't see much strengthening, if anything weakening.

[Ikester]

I'm referring to Fiona. The Euro Ensembles take 'Fiona' into the central gulf. I'm about to write Earl off as a fish/E. Coast problem.

[perk]

What's really scary is the prospect of this getting into the GOM like the euro ensembles show. Once it gets into the loop current....my God in Heaven.

Only if the shear relaxes though. If Earl somehow got into the Gulf, then I can't see much strengthening, if anything weakening.

Care to explain.

[CrazyC83]

What's really scary is the prospect of this getting into the GOM like the euro ensembles show. Once it gets into the loop current....my God in Heaven.

Only if the shear relaxes though. If Earl somehow got into the Gulf, then I can't see much strengthening, if anything weakening.

Care to explain.

Not conducive to development or strengthening at all in the GOM, and hasn't been for weeks.

[TheBurn]

[bob rulz]

Anybody thinking that the combination of shear to come from Major Hurricane Earl and this system's lack of intensification in spite of the forecasts for the past couple of days, that 97L may never amount to much?

The model showing a Cat 5 on 9/7 for Florida, basically eating the state of Florida was frightening but this thing looks like a mess and maybe.........

When the most reputable model continually shows a gigantic threat 6 runs in a row its not for nothing

whats the most reputable model?

He's referring to the ECMWF which is certainly one of the most accurate models at the long-range, but of course that doesn't mean it's always correct.

Interesting. The 12Z GFS, GFDL, HWRF and UKMET continue to show the NW turn away from the SE Coast. I cant wait to see the 12Z Euro today to see if it continues with it's SE Coast threat or if it will join the aforementioned models.

I think you mean NE. You can't turn NW AWAY from the coast unless you're inland.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010082918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 384W, 30, 1006, LO

[Blown Away]

TAFB updated, looks like the NE Caribbean will feel the effects of back to back systems

[wxman57]

Shear in the Gulf is only slightly above normal now (not that I think the Euro's 12Z track is likely yet).



Caribbean and tropical Atlantic shear are well below normal:

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...



TUE-SUN...(MODIFIED)
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THRU MID-WEEK
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
(700-500MB) WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THU OVERNIGHT LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO RECURVE EAST OF FL
MIDWEEK BUT WILL APPROACH CLOSER THAN DANIELLE. IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN PERIPHERAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TO AFFECT THE SURF ZONE AND ENHANCE THE RIP THREAT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND "EARL"
BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING VERY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20%. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF KEEPING THE NEXT TROPICAL LOW
BEHIND "EARL" FARTHER SOUTH WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS IS PERSISTENT IN
TURNING IT NORTH SIMILAR TO "EARL". TPC/HPC APPEAR TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED ON THE DAY 7 PROGS.




&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY

[artist]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...



TUE-SUN...(MODIFIED)
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THRU MID-WEEK
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
(700-500MB) WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THU OVERNIGHT LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO RECURVE EAST OF FL
MIDWEEK BUT WILL APPROACH CLOSER THAN DANIELLE. IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN PERIPHERAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TO AFFECT THE SURF ZONE AND ENHANCE THE RIP THREAT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND "EARL"
BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING VERY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20%. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF KEEPING THE NEXT TROPICAL LOW
BEHIND "EARL" FARTHER SOUTH WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS IS PERSISTENT IN
TURNING IT NORTH SIMILAR TO "EARL". TPC/HPC APPEAR TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED ON THE DAY 7 PROGS.




&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY

anyone know what the TPC's/HPC's accuracy is?

[HURAKAN]

Lets see what D-MAX can do.

[Weatherfreak000]

This trend of weakness can spell action for the islands if it keeps future fiona trending westward....

[thetruesms]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2010AL97_4KMIRIMG_201008292015.GIF[img]

Lets see what D-MAX can do.

Looks a little bit like

[Vortex]

HPC day 7 going with "fiona" moving West into the bahamas...


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...



TUE-SUN...(MODIFIED)
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THRU MID-WEEK
WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
(700-500MB) WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THU OVERNIGHT LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO RECURVE EAST OF FL
MIDWEEK BUT WILL APPROACH CLOSER THAN DANIELLE. IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN PERIPHERAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TO AFFECT THE SURF ZONE AND ENHANCE THE RIP THREAT. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND "EARL"
BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING VERY WEAK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20%. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES ITS TREND OF KEEPING THE NEXT TROPICAL LOW
BEHIND "EARL" FARTHER SOUTH WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS IS PERSISTENT IN
TURNING IT NORTH SIMILAR TO "EARL". TPC/HPC APPEAR TO BE LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF BASED ON THE DAY 7 PROGS.




&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY

anyone know what the TPC's/HPC's accuracy is?

900 miles this far out, lol..lets evacuate everyone from charleston to brownsville just so we can practice

[Cryomaniac]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2010AL97_4KMIRIMG_201008292015.GIF[img]

Lets see what D-MAX can do.

Looks a little bit like

It does a bit

[BigB0882]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2010AL97_4KMIRIMG_201008292015.GIF[img]

Lets see what D-MAX can do.

Looks a little bit like

LOL! You are right, I see it!