ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is Slight more west this run.. closer to PR

[Weatherfreak14]

Close up of the outer bands affecting the Leewards and even portions of the southern Windwards
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/op ... SOUFIR.GIF

Where do u get that image, I like that color table?

[msbee]

Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn

hi Lynn
everything quiet here so far.
wind has picked u pa little
and light rain
I think Gusty is getting slammed in Guadeloupe

[BigA]

Those two images show a slightly north of west movement in the last 4 hours.

[HurricaneQueen]

Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn

hi Lynn
everything quiet here so far.
wind has picked u pa little
and light rain
I think Gusty is getting slammed in Guadeloupe

Hey Barb,
Just read your post on the Caribbean thread. Glad things are quiet on the south side. I imagine the northern part of the island will feel stronger effects. Let's hope this things just books out of there.

[cycloneye]

Sunset over Earl.

[abajan]

Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn

As expected, the weather here has been uneventful thus far except that it feels so hot! Of course, we may still get a bite (gusty winds from the SW and a thunderstorm or two) from Earl’s tail later tonight or sometime tomorrow.
Surely Gustywind in Guadeloupe will get more than me.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KatDaddy]

Be safe MsBee. Your Storm2k Texas friends are thinking of you. Earl has a large SW side with a solid feederband over the Islands.

[TheBurn]

Quite the burst near the center towards the end of this loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Earl is intensifying. I would not be surprised if it becomes a major hurricane by tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

[msbee]

Be safe MsBee. Your Storm2k Texas friends are thinking of you. Earl has a large SW side with a solid feederband over the Islands.

thanks katdaddy
much appreciated

[Aric Dunn]

taking into consideration that it may not be the exact center fix but for continuity I picked the obs with the lowest winds so that we know at least we are within a few miles from the center.. first two fixes are showing west motion... will need more fixes to see if its actually wobbled back west.. which is bad for the islands.. and radar seems to showing a westerly motion for the last hour or 2

First pass 17.36N

205730 1736N 05942W 6390 03642 9681 +126 +082 143006 009 024 001 00


second pass 17.36 N

220300 1736N 05957W 6460 03545 9683 +126 +105 191001 008 /// /// 03

[Aric Dunn]

GFS shifted west now threatens mid atlantic up through NE

[Cryomaniac]

http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/5729/lunapic1283047067860272.gif

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac. It is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

Still looks to be moving at 270 or 275 to me, which obviously means that it will have to make a sudden turn to the North to be on the track.

[vbhoutex]

Having watched for a longer period of time now, I have to agree that the West motion may not just be a normal wobble. Based on the radar it appears that Earl will make a direct hit on the Northernmost Islands unless he starts a drastic turn now. We know all of our island friends are always prepared, but know we are praying for your safety during this time.

[Aric Dunn]

Having watched for a longer period of time now, I have to agree that the West motion may not just be a normal wobble. Based on the radar it appears that Earl will make a direct hit on the Northernmost Islands unless he starts a drastic turn now. We know all of our island friends are always prepared, but know we are praying for your safety during this time.

yeah and at least the last two fixes from recon it moved straight west...

[xironman]

How reliable is a center fix at that height?

[Gustywind]

Be safe Gusty. Hopefully the worst will pass to the NE. However thats a very strong feederband over the Islands.

Thanks my friend . Very strong feederband!

[jinftl]

The slight shift east in the forecast track of Earl off of the U.S. East Coast is evident in the latest NHC wind probabilities released at 5pm. The probability of sustained t.s. force winds and hurricane force winds is now higher in Nantucket than in Cape Hatteras.

The probability of hurricane force winds in NYC remains at 0%.

The trend is the friend of folks west and south of Nantucket and Yarmouth, NS. See what happens in future updates.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
The first % is the probability from the 11am advisory today, the 2nd % is the probability from the 5pm update:

YARMOUTH, NS 34KT 3% 13%
YARMOUTH, NS 50KT 0% 4%
YARMOUTH, NS 64KT 0% 2%

NANTUCKET 34KT 14% 25%
NANTUCKET 50KT 3% 10%
NANTUCKET 64KT 1% 4%

NEW YORK CITY 34KT 12% 12%
NEW YORK CITY 50KT 0% 3%
NEW YORK CITY 64KT 0% 0%

ATLANTIC CITY 34KT 14% 13%
ATLANTIC CITY 50KT 4% 3%
ATLANTIC CITY 64KT 1% 1%

OCEAN CITY, MD 34KT 17% 15%
OCEAN CITY, MD 50KT 6% 4%
OCEAN CITY, MD 64KT 3% 1%

CAPE HATTERAS 34KT 25% 20%
CAPE HATTERAS 50KT 11% 7%
CAPE HATTERAS 64KT 6% 3%

WILMINGTON, NC 34KT 11% 7%
WILMINGTON, NC 50KT 3% 0%
WILMINGTON, NC 64KT 1% 0%