ATL: EARL - Models

[artist]

not from me! i have friends in DC area.

Indeed, I'm with Earl every step of the way from this point onwards I'll update my Weather Blog twice a day (or more as each land area comes under the gun):

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

yeah, we have to get our friends in the Caribbean through this first and then on to the ne it looks like.

Having friends in both places as well as sitting here in south Florida, this can be nerve racking!

[AdamFirst]

NAM 30HR

headed right for Puerto Rico



Take it for what it's worth though.

[Danny MD]

Did that puerto rico strike from the NAM model just come out?

I live in DC by the way and have not let my guard down. I don't trust this thing recurving just yet.. To many variables/uncertainties to write this one off already.

[xironman]

Nah, Danny, Adam said take it for what it is worth because the NAM is not a tropical model.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Seems they've moved the track more East.

[Evil Jeremy]

Nah, Danny, Adam said take it for what it is worth because the NAM is not a tropical model.

No, but it is good at forecasting ridging I believe.

[pgoss11]

Seems they've moved the track more East.

They still are thinking it will recurve well offshore of the EC

[xironman]

Yeah it can forecast a ridge, but it is terrible with tropical systems interacting with it. Here the SW is coming down to push Earl NE, but look where 97L is. Doesn't make sense, hence you can't trust it.

[BigA]

18GFS about 50-100 miles SW of 12Z GFS at 78 hours (I used 78 for 18z and 84 for 12z)

[xironman]

If that Bermuda high can strengthen Earl will shoot north with the approaching SW

[Brent]

Hello.

[perk]

Hello.

No Fiona ?

[TwisterFanatic]

Hello.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

No Fiona ?

The GFS has never developed Fiona. They are doing horribly with Fiona so far.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Hello.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

No Fiona ?

The GFS has never developed Fiona. They are doing horribly with Fiona so far.

So far the GFS is right on 97L as it has not yet developed.

[fci]

Hello.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

No Fiona ?

The GFS has never developed Fiona. They are doing horribly with Fiona so far.

Since there is no Fiona nor a TD yet, I'd say it has done a very good job

[plasticup]

1200 GFDL shows a Cat 5 Earl in two days, then holds that strength for two more. Scary stuff.

[RL3AO]

The GFS has never developed Fiona. They are doing horribly with Fiona so far.

How? If it hasn't developed a storm that hasn't developed, how is it doing bad?

[TwisterFanatic]

The GFS has never developed Fiona. They are doing horribly with Fiona so far.

How? If it hasn't developed a storm that hasn't developed, how is it doing bad?

Sorry, i meant that about the GFS merging Earl and 97L when no other model has been doing that. If you recall the GFS tried to do the same with Danielle and Earl.

[invest man]

I just looked at the 18z gfs and the 00z euro and it appears that both of them have shifted considerably back to the west to just off the outer banks of nc. Does anybody else read this that way if not, feel free to straighten me out!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 300023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100830 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100830  0000   100830  1200   100831  0000   100831  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  60.4W   19.1N  62.9W   20.3N  65.5W   21.1N  68.2W
BAMD    17.7N  60.4W   18.5N  62.4W   19.7N  64.0W   21.4N  65.6W
BAMM    17.7N  60.4W   18.9N  62.7W   20.3N  64.7W   21.6N  66.8W
LBAR    17.7N  60.4W   18.8N  62.5W   20.1N  64.4W   21.2N  66.1W
SHIP        75KTS          87KTS          97KTS         102KTS
DSHP        75KTS          87KTS          97KTS         102KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100901  0000   100902  0000   100903  0000   100904  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.5N  70.0W   24.8N  71.4W   32.2N  71.8W   38.9N  64.0W
BAMD    23.4N  67.5W   28.5N  72.0W   33.7N  74.0W   39.4N  65.2W
BAMM    22.8N  68.6W   26.8N  71.6W   33.1N  72.4W   39.3N  63.5W
LBAR    22.6N  67.7W   27.4N  70.7W   34.1N  70.7W   42.7N  65.2W
SHIP       105KTS         103KTS         101KTS          88KTS
DSHP       105KTS         103KTS         101KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.7N LONCUR =  60.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  17.1N LONM12 =  57.7W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  16.5N LONM24 =  54.6W
WNDCUR =   75KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   65KT
CENPRS =  972MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  150NM RD34SE =  120NM RD34SW =   90NM RD34NW = 120NM