ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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cwachal

Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1481 Postby cwachal » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:33 pm

xironman wrote:How reliable is a center fix at that height?



the center is stacked perfectly... therefore it is the exact center
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1482 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:34 pm

I am curious as to why Earl apparently isn't feeling the weakness depicted on the steering currents maps posted earlier. It didn't look like the ridge was filling in enough to keep Earl W or WNW. Any thoughts on that or am I just reading them wrong or are they "off"?
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#1483 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:35 pm

Not too bad yet in the islands except for the squalls.

Things should pick up near Barbuda soon.


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weathe ... n=ACXX0001
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1484 Postby TheBurn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:35 pm

Image
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#1485 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:37 pm

From a friend of Antigua: :rarrow: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml
North shore
Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1486 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:41 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I am curious as to why Earl apparently isn't feeling the weakness depicted on the steering currents maps posted earlier. It didn't look like the ridge was filling in enough to keep Earl W or WNW. Any thoughts on that or am I just reading them wrong or are they "off"?



well from what was in the discussion last night it was the upper trough that was going to start the turn. today however they said ( for the 10th time ) that its coming to end of sub tropical ridge.. they have been saying that for days and still it has not turned. So i mentioned it earlier that the upper trough is ( according to the models ) going to have more influence that the large low to mid level ridge to the north and NW of the earl. but I still say the upper trough is too small and weak to cause such a turn. but will see soon enough.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1487 Postby Migle » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:44 pm

Earl looking real healthy right now. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a major tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1488 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:44 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! :D How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn

:) Thanks a lot Lynn, we appreciate your thoughts :wink:
Ttsorm activity has diminished in my area.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1489 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:45 pm

Few more images.... its pretty clear from radar it basically west... if it keeps it up it will pass right over barbuda..

Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1490 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:49 pm

msbee wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! :D How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn


hi Lynn
everything quiet here so far.
wind has picked u pa little
and light rain
I think Gusty is getting slammed in Guadeloupe

Thanks Barbara hopefully things have calm down! We have dealt with a nice feeder band! Interresting to note that Meteo-France report 30 to 40 millimeters and even 90 millimeters from this outer band in just 2 hours...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1491 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:51 pm

Migle wrote:Earl looking real healthy right now. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a major tomorrow morning.


More like tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1492 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:53 pm

abajan wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:Glad to see you are still posting, Gusty and abajan!! :D How are condition there now? I haven't seen anything from msbee or bvigal recently. I image they are getting a lot of rain about now. Please stay safe everyone.

Lynn
As expected, the weather here has been uneventful thus far except that it feels so hot! Of course, we may still get a bite (gusty winds from the SW and a thunderstorm or two) from Earl’s tail later tonight or sometime tomorrow.
Surely Gustywind in Guadeloupe will get more than me.

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Let's not bet with Earl potential Abajan :oops: you want some water really :lol: This feeder band was really well muscled. Let's continue to monitor carefully Hurricane Earl. Be safe all my friend in the Lesser Antilles, be prepared and don't let your guard down especially tonight!
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#1493 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:54 pm

Eye starting to clear out nicely on the above loop. Good symetry and looks to be about 280-285
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1494 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:55 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I am curious as to why Earl apparently isn't feeling the weakness depicted on the steering currents maps posted earlier. It didn't look like the ridge was filling in enough to keep Earl W or WNW. Any thoughts on that or am I just reading them wrong or are they "off"?



well from what was in the discussion last night it was the upper trough that was going to start the turn. today however they said ( for the 10th time ) that its coming to end of sub tropical ridge.. they have been saying that for days and still it has not turned. So i mentioned it earlier that the upper trough is ( according to the models ) going to have more influence that the large low to mid level ridge to the north and NW of the earl. but I still say the upper trough is too small and weak to cause such a turn. but will see soon enough.

I think the ideology behind this is that Earl is coming to the end of the ridge which will make steering currents weak and therefore a subtle feature like the upper level low to it's NW will be enough to kick it slowly north into the weakness. The GFS takes 48 hours from now to lift it away from Puerto Rico which shows you how weak the steering will be.Also, Earl goes so slow it allows 97 to almost catch it. I'm worried for the Islands and possibly PR because it will take awhile for this to be gone and any slight deviations in this weak pattern could make for slight course changes that could make all the difference when a major cane is that close.
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#1495 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:56 pm

Based on a dropsonde, the current pressure appears to be 972mb.
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#1496 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Aug 29, 2010 5:58 pm

Eye starting to clear out nicely on the above loop. Good symetry and looks to be about 280-285
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#1497 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:03 pm

Earl has begun to exhibit cycloid looping. North then West as he stairsteps a little more NW of WNW.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1498 Postby SootyTern » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:06 pm

[quote="CalmBeforeStorm] The GFS takes 48 hours from now to lift it away from Puerto Rico which shows you how weak the steering will be.Also, Earl goes so slow it allows 97 to almost catch it. [quote]

Earl seems to be trucking along quite quickly on radar. Looks like he could be near PR way before 48 hours.
Last edited by SootyTern on Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1499 Postby Tom8 » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:06 pm

Image

Image

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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#1500 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 29, 2010 6:08 pm

SootyTern wrote:[


Earl is expected to slow down before PR, which would be accompanied with a turn to the NW. The question is when (and for others, if) this will actually happen.
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