A Strong Wave Forecast to Exit Africa Aound Sept 4

[Ivanhater]

Wow...the pre season forecast may not be far off if the GFS is correct and spitting that many systems out. September could be really active.

[BigA]

Wow...the pre season forecast may not be far off if the GFS is correct and spitting that many systems out. September could be really active.

Especially with La Nina, which causes the Cape Verde season to shut down a little later (I think) and increases development chances late in the season in the W. Caribbean.

Also, the 384 is fictitious, but note how around September 14 the weakness around 60 west is gone. Sept 5-25 could be the time we get a long tracker fairly low, a la Georges

[KWT]

I don't think its so out of the question BigA, just a few hints again from the models the troughing is going to reduce and we go back into a slightly blockier pattern.

Anyway the GFS sure does keep spitting things out, reminds me of the 2nd half of August 1995!

[LaBreeze]

I feel like each wave will get closer and closer, with this one having the best shot of a coastal impact if not Fiona.

"coastal impact" - which coast? Atlantic, Gulf?

[theworld]

Both

[TheBurn]

[StormClouds63]

This system exiting off Africa should be future invest 98L, and perhaps later on, Gaston.

Unlike the previous wave train, this one would appear to have the better opportunity to ride the southern route at least into the eastern Caribbean. We'll see how strong the ridge rebuilds after Earl and 97L.

[Wx_Warrior]

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. Still reaches the coast on Sep 4.

[GCANE]

Looks like it may take its time to transition to a warm core.

[GCANE]

The current wave that just came off the coast is tagged 38L.

Models are pretty much dismissing this one.

Currently convection is north of the vorticity and moderate shear is hampering development.

Forecast shows it will remain in high shear.

[alienstorm]

Looks much better organize this afternoon won't be surprise to see it at 8PM TWO....

[Migle]

Looks much better organize this afternoon won't be surprise to see it at 8PM TWO....

I dont think they will yet. and I am not sure if your talking about the same thing since the title says it wont exit Africa to September 4.

[TheBurn]

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-edit: Is this the same as this? viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109208

[GCANE]

The ITCZ has lit up just about across the entire continent.

[LaBreeze]

The ITCZ has lit up just about across the entire continent.

Tropical Train full speed ahead!

[Migle]

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-edit: Is this the same as this? viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109208

nope, this wave hasn't left Africa yet I think.

[ColinDelia]

6z GFS. 144 hours. Near Cape Verde Islands

[ColinDelia]

Doesn't do much with it after that.Not even around at 180 hours

[ColinDelia]

I believe this is PGI40L. We should get some pics, etc soon. Still 5 days inland.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#