ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Buck]

The last couple of frames show a pop up of convection right around (what I'm guessing) is the center. Could this be it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-avn.html

[dexterlabio]

If I were to choose, I'll buy the SE coast hit rather than an emerge to the GOM forecast by the ECMWF. Either way, several models still suggest a recurve, if I am not mistaken.

[Blown Away]

Some deeper convection starting to build near the circulation center tonight!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Cyclenall]

I'm with you on the idea that 97L stays an Atlantic system. At least, I'm hoping that's the case. Seems like they're all curving out to be fish - let's keep the pattern.

I don't think residents in the eastern Caribbean agree.

[Dean4Storms]

The longer this takes to organize the further west it will travel alot like we saw with Earl. If 97L is a mere TStorm by the time it gets close to the NE Carib. islands it could very well be a threat to the SE CONUS!

[boca]

I think 97L is holding its own it doesn't look as ragged as it did earlier.Thunderstorms are starting to pop around its center.I think this will travel further west than Danielle or Earl. The Euro might be on to the synoptic setup down the road.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-avn.html

[Steve]

>>The longer this takes to organize the further west it will travel alot like we saw with Earl. If 97L is a mere TStorm by the time it gets close to the NE Carib. islands it could very well be a threat to the SE CONUS!

I'm not saying it's one way or the other because it has to play out. But what you posted is exactly the opposite of what the 12Z European vs. CMC vs. GFS was showing. Euro showed slower forward speed but was stronger than GEM and GFS. GEM was stronger than GFS at most intervals and also farther west than the GFS (at 120 hours). GEM was weaker than ECMWF and farther east. So all three of the competing models (valid 12z 08/29/10) are in opposition to what your post says. Again, I don't know what's going to happen. I'm just trying to interpret the models saying it's not so much how long it takes to get going as it is timing of certain elements within the evolution of the pattern and relative position of 97L.

[Weatherfreak000]

Refiring convection tonight. I believe it should have a good shot at TD classification tomorrow.

[ROCK]

still entraining the susidence from the north..keeping it in check for now...might be a TD tomorrow...right now it looks broad and enlongated....

Steve nice interpretation of the models from prior runs....I do think its a valid point as to a more westward solution given the lack of organization....

[Steve]

>>Steve nice interpretation of the models from prior runs....I do think its a valid point as to a more westward solution given the lack of organization....

Thanks ROCK. Generally I would agree. It's just that the 12z's didn't like our general point that weaker systems would tend to go west. European was farthest east through 72 and 96 hours but it was stronger than GEM or GFS. After 120, ECMWF was the strongest and farthest west. CMC was the second strongest and was still west of GFS. GFS was the weakest and the most east at that point and getting ready to recurve. So the weakest model ends up staying farthest east while two stronger models respectively ended up more westerly (SC/NC for GEM, LA for ECMWF). We have it down from earlier today, so we can re-visit on Wed. and Thursday to see which of these three had the best handle and where they were going with it.

[ROCK]

0Z CMC likes the Carolinas.....

[ConvergenceZone]

It would be quite something if the USA is able to dodge a direct landfall from Danielle Earl and Fiona....

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting...thought maybe the CMC was following EURO.

[WeatherGuesser]

Pretty good size overall, but cloud cover seems sparse.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion all 97L has to do is get west of where Earl left off and into untapped explosive waters.



Danielle turns and intensifies. Earl gets west of where Danielle left off and bursts, Fiona?

[ROCK]

Interesting...thought maybe the CMC was following EURO.

oh it still might....its all about timing with this one...

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z CMC turns 97L away from the US coast. Now that leaves only the 00Z Euro later tonight to see if it continues West or if it follows the Northward turn from the other models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[CourierPR]

[quote="WeatherEmperor"]00Z CMC turns 97L away from the US coast. Now that leaves only the 00Z Euro later tonight to see if it continues West or if it follows the Northward turn from the other models.

...and we all know that storms always follow what the models depict days in advance of an approach to land.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z CMC turns 97L away from the US coast. Now that leaves only the 00Z Euro later tonight to see if it continues West or if it follows the Northward turn from the other models.

...and we all know that storms always follow what the models depict days in advance of an approach to land.

I didn't say anything about where I think it will go. I am just pointing out what the latest CMC shows. Look at the link and see for yourself what the CMC does.

[Brent]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
1150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.