ATL: EARL - Models

[BigA]

Very similar curve in this run to 1954 Edna

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Edna_1954_track.png

[Brent]

That was very disturbing.

[Hurricaneman]

Unbelievable. I really cannot imagine if that verified.

To be quite honest about it, there really isn't much time remaining for things to change drastically. These trends aren't what you want to see 2-4 days out.

I'm not sure how I am going to react if the ECM agrees with the GFS. It is not a pretty picture when you combine the intensity progs with the track featured on the GFS, crazy stuff.

If those 2 models agree, time for even us up here to get prepared

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! at the GFS... very, very close to NC.

[StormGuy]

The latest GFS run takes Earl real close to North Carolina and Virginia as well. I'd say that the east coast from the Carolinas north needs to watch this closely.

[Riptide]

Don't forget about the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821. I doubt Earl tracks that far inland though.

[shah8]

Okay, I've been comparing with the 18z, and it seems this 00z goes north from 78hrs to 102hrs slower than the 18z. The comparable 114hrs from the 18z is fairly far NE.

NB, apologies to all for my crass comment earlier.

[WxGuy1]

Unbelievable. I really cannot imagine if that verified.

To be quite honest about it, there really isn't much time remaining for things to change drastically. These trends aren't what you want to see 2-4 days out.

I'm not sure how I am going to react if the ECM agrees with the GFS. It is not a pretty picture when you combine the intensity progs with the track featured on the GFS, crazy stuff.

If there's any hopeful reminders, they are that (a) this is only one (or two, if the ECMWF agree) run that would show TS+ winds along the east coast and (b) we're still looking a couple of days out. Trends do speak very loudly and mustn't be ignored, but nearly all previous runs of the NOGAPS, CMC, ECMWF, most GFS runs, HWRF, GFDL, etc., have indicated that the brunt of Earl will remain offshore.

In addition, it appears that Earl may be moving rather briskly by the time it approaches the latitude of North Carolina, which makes it likely that the wind field will be quite asymmetric. Considering the storm is likely have a significant component to the north, the west side of the storm is likely to be considerably weaker than the east side (in terms of ground-relative winds, which is what most on land care about). Since every single model run thus far indicates that the eye will remain offshore, it's likely that most land areas won't see particularly strong winds (if we're talking about a Cat 3-4 storm at the time of closest approach).

Of course, usual disclaimers are in order, since we're a few days out, and Earl may get within a few hundred miles of the coast.

[Riptide]

Unbelievable. I really cannot imagine if that verified.

To be quite honest about it, there really isn't much time remaining for things to change drastically. These trends aren't what you want to see 2-4 days out.

I'm not sure how I am going to react if the ECM agrees with the GFS. It is not a pretty picture when you combine the intensity progs with the track featured on the GFS, crazy stuff.

If there's any hopeful reminders, they are that (a) this is only one (or two, if the ECMWF agree) run that would show TS+ winds along the east coast and (b) we're still looking a couple of days out. Trends do speak very loudly and mustn't be ignored, but nearly all previous runs of the NOGAPS, CMC, ECMWF, most GFS runs, HWRF, GFDL, etc., have indicated that the brunt of Earl will remain offshore.

In addition, it appears that Earl may be moving rather briskly by the time it approaches the latitude of North Carolina, which makes it likely that the wind field will be quite asymmetric. Considering the storm is likely have a significant component to the north, the west side of the storm is likely to be considerably weaker than the east side (in terms of ground-relative winds, which is what most on land care about). Since every single model run thus far indicates that the eye will remain offshore, it's likely that most land areas won't see particularly strong winds (if we're talking about a Cat 3-4 storm at the time of closest approach).

Of course, usual disclaimers are in order, since we're a few days out, and Earl may get within a few hundred miles of the coast.

I completely agree, still worried about Earl outrunning the trough or some other warped change in the pressure field that allows for a more damaging and gradual recurve and a potential landfall.

[supercane]

00Z GFS valid 108hr (Fri Sep 03 12Z) showing Earl just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic but also the upper-level trough coming to the rescue (hopefully in time):

[boca]

00Z GFS valid 108hr (Fri Sep 03 12Z) showing Earl just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic but also the upper-level trough coming to the rescue (hopefully in time):

At least the west side is the weaker side if theirs good news with this run.

[TheDreamTraveler]

0z GGEM

[South Texas Storms]

woah it looks like that model spins up a tc making landfall just south of brownsville.

[Recurve]

Unfortunately GFS crashes Earl into Cape Cod after scraping up the East Coast as a fairly powerful storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO rolling

[Wx_Warrior]

72 hours

[Wx_Warrior]

nm

[JTD]

Houston,

We have a problem.

Euro just like 50 miles off shore of Hatteras. HUGE WEST SHIFT.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Brent]

Wow. Just wow.