WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[supercane]

6-hr vis loop:

Microwave:


Dvorak classifications:
SAB:
30/0232 UTC 23.1N 132.0E T4.0/4.0 KOMPASU
29/2032 UTC 22.7N 133.1E T3.5/3.5 KOMPASU

TXPN22 KNES 300331
SIMWIR

A. 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 30/0232Z
C. 23.1N
D. 132.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...HINTS OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN PARTIAL TMI PASS AND RECENT
VIS LOOP. THIS SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED CENTER IN LG FOR DT OF
4.5 AND HAS NICE OUTER BANDS THAT ON VIS WRAP 1.4 THOUGH BROKEN...MET
IS 3.5. PT IS 4.0. FT BASED ON PT AS DT IS NOT WELL DEFINED (VIS CDO
METHOD WOULD BE 4.0 AT BEST)...SO PT IS CHOSEN AS A COMPROMISE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
29/2208Z 22.5N 132.7E AMSU

...GALLINA

JMA at 3.5
880
TCNA21 RJTD 300600 CCA
CCAA 30060 47644 KOMPASU(1007) 10233 11318 12244 235// 93208=
LIONROCK(1006) 09208 11167 13234 235// 90000=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Very versatile, Typhoon Hunter! Hope you get great footage in Indonesia.

Thanks mate!

T numbers continue to creep up:

TPPN12 PGTW 300623

A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU)

B. 30/0532Z

C. 23.4N

D. 131.8E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A CF OF 4.0. ADDED .5
FOR BANDING TO YIELD A DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 4.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[Chacor]

Could we get a change of topic title to STS? Thanks.

Interesting to see JMA also going for direct hit on Okinawa. Rarely get such good agreement on landfall, if you will, from JMA and JTWC.

[StormingB81]

Wonder if it will be enough to bump it up to Typhoon Status at the 5pm advisory.

[Infdidoll]

Could we get a change of topic title to STS? Thanks.

Interesting to see JMA also going for direct hit on Okinawa. Rarely get such good agreement on landfall, if you will, from JMA and JTWC.

I was thinking the same thing...I remember one where the agencies were split almost 180° - Can't remember what storm that was, though. I'm also shocked and pleasantly surprised that they are all agreeing for once.

Storming - Latest wind analysis had it at 62 kts - I think it's 64 kts to upgrade to typhoon isn't it? If so, then it will probably be upgraded. My husband said he was told we'd probably go to TCOR 1 about 7 p.m. local time. That sounds about right, meaning we'd be about 12 hours out from the possibility of 50 kt + winds.

[StormingB81]

yep and the ysay we should be in E with winds over 58 mph from about 7 am tomorrow until 8pm tomorrow night

[Infdidoll]

JTWC site must be extremely busy. Can't even get on it...but Weather Underground has it as a typhoon now and I think they base their forecasts off JTWC data:

[StormingB81]

Also JTWC is down...nice seeing everyone is trying to get the latest advisory

[Infdidoll]

Latest advisory map from JTWC....I don't have the individual link to the data page, so I can't get the prognostic reasoning, bulletin, etc. but looks like they are now calling it a typhoon, no surprise there:

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 23.3N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 28.2N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 34.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 39.8N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 42.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 131.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
(TCB). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATE FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED
SOUTH OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
OVER OKINAWA INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA BEFORE RECURVING TOWARDS THE
KOREAN PENINSULA AFTER TAU 48. DURING THIS SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS. BY TAU 72, TY 08W
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, CROSS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE
KOREAN PENINSULA, AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, AFTER
WHICH THE MODELS SPREAD OUT SLIGHTLY, WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A WIDER
RECURVE INTO NORTH KOREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09W (NINE) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interestingly, JTWC have slowed down the forward track speed a lot, only 5kts now. I hope for the sake of aesthetics this hits during daylight hours so we can get some nice video form the eyewall!

[Infdidoll]

Interestingly, JTWC have slowed down the forward track speed a lot, only 5kts now. I hope for the sake of aesthetics this hits during daylight hours so we can get some nice video form the eyewall!

Oooh! You're right... I didn't even think about getting video from the eyewall. I'm suddenly excited over the video prospects and the chance to use my new camera. A slow in the forward motion might also give it more time to intensify. I guess I'd better get off my butt and get back to getting prepared. My dinner break has lasted over an hour now.

Looks like it's now not expected to make full landfall here until about 3 p.m. tomorrow.

[senorpepr]

TCNA20 RJTD 300900 CCA
CCAA 30090 47644 LIONROCK(1006) 09208 11168 132/4 2//// 90000=
KOMPASU(1007) 10235 11315 122/4 2//// 93108=

Kompasu at 23.5N 131.5E. Being a 09Z SAREP, no intensity assigned.

[StormingB81]

Think about it..now they say it wont be here till about 12-3 tomorrow....it was supposed to hit orig at 3 am with 75 mph winds...it is now going to hit 9-12 hours later PLUS the winds are alreasy surpassign what they were orig supposed to be..i wonder what kind of winds we can see tomorrow.

[supercane]

SAB Dvorak continues to increase:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/0832 UTC 23.5N 131.4E T5.0/5.0 KOMPASU
30/0232 UTC 23.1N 132.0E T4.0/4.0 KOMPASU
29/2032 UTC 22.7N 133.1E T3.5/3.5 KOMPASU

TXPN22 KNES 300910
SIMWIR
A. 08W (KOMPASU)
B. 30/0832Z
C. 23.5N
D. 131.4E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE SEEN IN MI PARTICULARLY
THE AMSRE PASS. 0801Z VIS SHOWED NASCENT EYE STARTING TO DIMPLE IN THE
CDO PATTERN BEFORE STRONG BURSTING AT THE CENTER OBSCURED IT ONCE MORE.
STILL CENTER LOCATION HAS HIGH CONFIDENCE SO USING EMBEDDED CENTER .7
DEGREES IN BLACK YIELDS DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 4.5 FT BASED ON
DT PARTICULARLY GIVEN MI.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
30/0417Z 23.2N 131.9E AMSU
30/0456Z 23.4N 131.9E AMSRE
...GALLINA
=

CI5.0 would correspond to 90kt, which is probably too high.

[StormingB81]

WOW! If it does come abck say at the next advisory at 11pm and says its 90 knots WOW is it going to be crazy heere tomorrow afternoon!

[StormingB81]

Latest from Military weather and I am so glad the yare on Board. 80mph sustained..105 gusting the worse will eb between 5-8 pm however since it had slowed down that number can rise. We shall see tomorrow.

[StormingB81]

NWS GUAM States that winds here can be 95MPH!!! WOW!!!

[HURAKAN]

NWS GUAM States that winds here can be 95MPH!!! WOW!!!

This system is so small, weird for the WPAC but what has been normal this season? lol , that it will probably need to hit you directly to get those winds. Any deviation north or south and you may get nothing.

[StormingB81]

True the track has bee nanywehere from 5-8 nm away from here but a little wobble can change that big time