Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

:eek: Guadeloupe has had 119 mm of rain, that could be very dangerous, my best wishes are with all the affected islands tonight. I remember the nights of Agatha, the night of November 8 last year and the nights of Stan and how hard it was to sleep with the noise of the heavy rains but I wish you could sleep as good and safe as possible.

Thanks for this info but 199mm of rain? Sure??? Where is your source Macrocane? I knew that given Meteo-France the feeder band of the afternoon brang 30 to 40 mm of rain and 90 mm in localized areas. Let's see what happens tonight.
BE SAFE ALL.

[Macrocane]

Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.6C 85F 119.0mm

Tropicana posted this info on the previous page.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

.UPDATE...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. EARL IS STILL MOVING ON A JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST TRACK. LATEST TPC/NHC ADVISORY REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE...JUST A TAD SOUTH AND WEST...AND CONTINUES TO BRING
THE CENTER OF EARL JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

OUTER BANDS FROM EARL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM EARL WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND WESTWARD AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR WAS RETURNED TO
SERVICE AT 2228Z.

[Gustywind]

Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 29.6C 85F 119.0mm

Tropicana posted this info on the previous page.

Oh yeah damnnn i'm amazed

[Gustywind]

PURPLE CODE is in effect for the Northern Leewards that means TS or H winds are expected in less than 3 hours! STAY SAFE AND DRY MY FRIENDS MSBEE, PATTI...

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...
SOUTHEAST...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...
PONCE AND VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9N...LONGITUDE 61.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 260 MILES EAST
OF SAINT THOMAS VI...OR ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF SAINT CROIX VI.
THE STORM WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE HIM ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND FAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO MONDAY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD TRIGGER FLASH
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EASTERN PASSAGES AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 330 AM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ002-012-013-VIZ001-002-300845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHEAST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PROBABILITY OF WINDS AND WINDS SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO
16 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 76 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF DRY
GUTS...SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MID MORNING
MONDAY AND INTO VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE... AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF
NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES AT:

MAGENS BAY...1:45 PM AST MONDAY AT 1.3 FEET.
CHRISTIANSTED...2:18 PM AST MONDAY AT 0.7 FEET.


$$

PRZ001-003>011-300845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PROBABILITY OF WIND SECTION WAS UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 48 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

...INLAND FLOODING...
OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE EARL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT. ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

$$

AMZ712-715-722-725-732-735-300845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PROBABILITY OF WINDS SECTION WAS UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 35 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 94 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAT 34 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND NOON TOMORROW. WATERS
NORTH OF ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONGER
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET ARE
EXPECTED.

$$

AMZ710-300845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PROBABILITY OF WIND SECTION WAS UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 64 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 98 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.


...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS
WATERS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 63 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL
APPROACHES... STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
TODAY. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT. SEAS WILL VARY GREATLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH MAXIMUM SEAS RANGING FROM
15 FEET ALONG LONGITUDE 67 WEST TO UP TO 25 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF EARL.


$$

AMZ741-742-745-300845-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1237 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
PROBABILITY OF WINDS SECTION WAS UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 29 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICATION DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE
TRACK OF THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WATCHES
MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. SEAS WILL VARY
GREATLY WITH 4 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND UP TO 2 FEET
OVER PROTECTED WATERS.

[msbee]

good morning
how is everyone?
nothing much to talk about on st maarten so far

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here we are waiting for the first big band to move thru Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

WTNT32 KNHC 301147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[msbee]

only thing working here for me is my generator and my internet
be grateful for something I guess
something hit our water line
no water now
very strong winds
not much rain
trees down everywhere
island in total blackout

[alanstover]

Take care all in the islands, I wish you the best.

I found this board back in June when we were getting hit by TS Agatha, and have been very grateful for all the info I have found here.

Sorry to see that my new friends in the islands are getting hit so soon.

[HUC]

We are all praying for all of you that are now in the worst..Stay safe please

[caribepr]

Thinking of all of you on the various islands...sounds like the power is out on St. Croix, they aren't sure why but WAPA often turns it off before a storm...everywhere else I'm hearing about the rain bands and wind starting. Hard to fathom up here in Maine with this perfectly blue sky sunny morning. Wish I was home

[cycloneye]

Power restored here but it may go again.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

PRZ001-003>011-310215-
/O.EXB.TJSJ.FF.A.0009.100830T1404Z-100831T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...
ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...
VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...HATILLO...
QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...
HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...LAJAS
1004 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING...CULEBRA... VIEQUES.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* OUTER RAIN BANDS OF HURRICANE EARL HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND BY TONIGHT. AS THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE PASSES ALONG TO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WITH RAPID RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[msbee]

a little video for you all
still howling here
http://barcann.livejournal.com/190757.html

please be safe everyone,,this is a bad storm

[Macrocane]

Looking at the webcams on the first post of the thread I can see that the islands are having a hard time with the rough seas and the strong winds, I hope everyone is OK.

[msbee]

we are hanging in there
think the worst is over now.
we got hammered though.
wondering about PR, VI and BVI now

[x-y-no]

we are hanging in there
think the worst is over now.
we got hammered though.
wondering about PR, VI and BVI now

Glad you're OK ...

I doubt PR will get hurricane force winds, but VI and BVI are clearly being hit pretty hard.

[tropicana]

Regional High Temperatures and Rainfall
Mon August 30, 2010 ( rainfall 8pm Mon to 2pm Tue ET)

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.2C 94F 10.0mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.5C 89F 16.5mm
Crown Point, Tobago 32.6C 91F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.2C 90F
Rockley, S. Barbados 33.1C 92F

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.5C 91F
Hewannora, St Lucia 33.3C 92F
Vigie, St Lucia 33.4C 92F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 33.1C 92F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.5C 87F 11.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.1C 82F 97.0mm
West End, Anguilla 29.3C 85F 322.8mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.8C 84F 167.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F 35.0mm
St Maarten, Virgin Islands 29.0C 84F 80.0mm

-justin-

[Gustywind]

Things are heating islanders....
000
WTNT33 KNHC 302042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG