ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looking rather fishy I must admit (may be a close call for the islands again though).......

Actually I'm really wondering if it is going to develop or whether it will get too close to Earl and experience too much outflow that will prohibit it from organizing. The GFS has been indicating this will happen run after run.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks ragged to me, not well structured.

[HenkL]

The 'centre' of 97L is passing near buoy 41041. Highest windgust was 21 kt from the north. Wind east now, pressure 1009 hPa.

[HURAKAN]

The 'centre' of 97L is passing near buoy 41041. Highest windgust was 21 kt from the north. Wind east now, pressure 1009 hPa.

Long time no see you. Hope everything is going well!

[Vortex]

IMO, I think it makes a run at td/ts status prior to reaching the islands.. Not much more. At that point the outflow from Earl should take its toll...However, if it does as some models are hinting at and thats a near stall north of PR then all bets are off. Earl moves out and the environment becomes very conducive for re-development...IF this scenrio plays out then where she stalls will be critical as ridging would likely turn her back w/wnw...

[Blown Away]

TAFB's prediction.

Convection is building this morning and IMO we will see a TD today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010083012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 452W, 25, 1007, LO

[ColinDelia]

Newest SHIPS. Maxes at 61 knots on day 5. Using OFCI for track this time.
Note the decreased shear at day 5. Not sure where the OFCI track goes though.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 51 53 55 55 57 61
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 51 53 55 55 57 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 51 56 59 60 57 56

SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 9 17 23 26 30 25 32 25 11

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking rather fishy I must admit (may be a close call for the islands again though).......

Actually I'm really wondering if it is going to develop or whether it will get too close to Earl and experience too much outflow that will prohibit it from organizing. The GFS has been indicating this will happen run after run.

OKAY. You think all the storms will be fishes. Honestly, do you really need to reiterate this opinion EVERYWHERE? EVERYDAY?

We get it. Seriously, we do. No offense...but days and days have gone by.

[AdamFirst]

It can't be a fish if it's not even developed...it can't be anything.

Perhaps the GFS hasn't been that wrong in saying 97L won't get off the ground.

[tolakram]

I wish the word fish was banned from these forums, it's really really annoying.

'Looks like it might recurve or turn north once it develops' sounds a lot better and does away with whatever fish implies.

[Gustywind]

Looking rather fishy I must admit (may be a close call for the islands again though).......

Actually I'm really wondering if it is going to develop or whether it will get too close to Earl and experience too much outflow that will prohibit it from organizing. The GFS has been indicating this will happen run after run.

Meteo-France Guadeloupe in their latest weather forecast 6AM today have anticipated Wednesday a TD or even a TS close to Guadeloupe or the NE carib or just more east than Earl. That's pretty rare for them to be so early bullish on a feature a bit far away from the islands. So, hope this time that will be wrong, that's enough with Earl in the NE islands. We will see but the far west it continues to travel the higher chances it has to churning closely towards the Lesser Antilles. Following it closely...

[GeneratorPower]

I wish the word fish was banned from these forums, it's really really annoying.

'Looks like it might recurve or turn north once it develops' sounds a lot better and does away with whatever fish implies.

I second your motion. I hate that term.

[SoupBone]

Looking rather fishy I must admit (may be a close call for the islands again though).......

Actually I'm really wondering if it is going to develop or whether it will get too close to Earl and experience too much outflow that will prohibit it from organizing. The GFS has been indicating this will happen run after run.

OKAY. You think all the storms will be fishes. Honestly, do you really need to reiterate this opinion EVERYWHERE? EVERYDAY?

We get it. Seriously, we do. No offense...but days and days have gone by.

You need to learn how to ignore posts you don't like reading. It's a fairly simple thing to do. He has just as much a right to his opinion as you do here.

I wish the word fish was banned from these forums, it's really really annoying.

'Looks like it might recurve or turn north once it develops' sounds a lot better and does away with whatever fish implies.

I really don't understand what happened to this forum. Don't you guys have bigger things to worry about than someones choice of words?

When I don't care for a post there is a neat little icon to report it. You guys should use it if you feel that strongly about it.

That being said 97L has a long way to go before even being considered a "fish". Personally I like to wait until a system is more developed till I even begin to trust the models.

[HURAKAN]

Looks upgradable

[boca]

I think the NHC will upgrade at 5pm even though it already looks like it has depression status.

[ROCK]

maybe upgradable....like to see a SCAT pass and make sure its closed.....didnt look to healthy last night...

[HurricaneBelle]

I think the NHC will upgrade at 5pm even though it already looks like it has depression status.

They're probably waiting to write off Danielle so they won't have to do three advisory packages at once.

[dexterlabio]

Some pro-mets might think otherwise. IMO this one can be upgraded anytime soon.

[Blown Away]

97L is closing in on Earl and it will be interesting to see how the two systems interact.