ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

pcolaman · #1901 Postby **pcolaman** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:23 am

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes
I wobble to the sw ? Not to good .

cwachal · #1902 Postby **cwachal** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:23 am

that is the area of flight level winds of 60 Knts or higher

#1903 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:23 am

Radar still looks due west to me.

ronjon · #1904 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:27 am

CourierPR wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:If it doesn't change it's direction before the 11AM advisory, I see a Hurricane Warning for PR.
I think The Bahamas might be included in watches and warnings in that event.

Wouldn't be surprised to see watches go up soon for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

#1905 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:27 am

deltadog03 wrote:Radar still looks due west to me.

Yes, it looks like that direction.

#1906 Postby **emeraldislencguy** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:29 am

just turned my computer on and I have noticed a shift to the west since last night
can someone give me their opinions of how close it will come to nc
live at emerald isle which is near morehead city
I am starting to get more concerned
thanks

SoupBone · #1907 Postby **SoupBone** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:29 am

pcolaman wrote:http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
I wobble to the sw ? Not to good .

Still due west. No doubt...

#1908 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:31 am

latest visible

pgoss11 · #1909 Postby **pgoss11** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:33 am

emeraldislencguy wrote:just turned my computer on and I have noticed a shift to the west since last night
can someone give me their opinions of how close it will come to nc
live at emerald isle which is near morehead city
I am starting to get more concerned
thanks

It seems like NC might be the most at risk from a direct hit. I think as it's recurving SNE is a near miss, but people in eastern NC should keep a close eye on this storm, especially with the persistent west heading Earl is traveling

Nate-Gillson · #1910 Postby **Nate-Gillson** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:

latest visible

There's the eye.

plasticup · #1911 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:33 am

emeraldislencguy wrote:just turned my computer on and I have noticed a shift to the west since last night
can someone give me their opinions of how close it will come to nc
live at emerald isle which is near morehead city
I am starting to get more concerned
thanks

It's too soon to say. When it starts making the northward turn the forecast track should narrow a bunch. You'll know more tomorrow.

pgoss11 · #1912 Postby **pgoss11** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:33 am

emeraldislencguy wrote:just turned my computer on and I have noticed a shift to the west since last night
can someone give me their opinions of how close it will come to nc
live at emerald isle which is near morehead city
I am starting to get more concerned
thanks

It seems like NC might be the most at risk from a direct hit. I think as it's recurving SNE is a near miss, but people in eastern NC should keep a close eye on this storm, especially with the persistent west heading Earl is traveling

StormGuy · #1913 Postby **StormGuy** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:34 am

HURAKAN wrote:

latest visible

You can see the eye starting to peak through there.

#1914 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:34 am

cycloneye wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Radar still looks due west to me.

Yes, it looks like that direction.

Looks like this is going to be a close call for you Cycloneye and all our friends in PR. Good luck!

#1915 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:35 am

It sure looks like it will miss the projected 2pm point to the south (turn on Trop Pts)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

#1916 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:36 am

Stop quoting pictures. Either remove the IMG tags or delete them from your quotes please.

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

Sanibel · #1917 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:37 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think it's fairly steady 285* and should clip Anegada and miss Puerto Rico with the worst of the core.

plasticup · #1918 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:37 am

N2FSU wrote:It sure looks like it will miss the projected 2pm point to the south (turn on Trop Pts)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

You can see that sharp wobble southwards, but it could wobble back just as easily. If it's going to make this turn we should start seeing evidence of it in the next few hours.

StormGuy · #1919 Postby **StormGuy** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:38 am

JPmia wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Radar still looks due west to me.

Yes, it looks like that direction.

Looks like this is going to be a close call for you Cycloneye and all our friends in PR. Good luck!

Yes, please stay safe, especially around the San Juan area it looks like!

HurrMark · #1920 Postby **HurrMark** » Mon Aug 30, 2010 8:43 am

It looks nearly due west (maybe 280), but it's hard to gauge on just 41 minutes of radar. I think it is too far north now to be a direct hit on PR or the VI, although they are not out of the woods.

The NHC has been missing the forecast points to the south, which is a bit concerning...we would hope that this would reverse itself at some point.

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