ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[sevenleft]

This little wobble south means the PR is going to get roughed up a bit.

Recon shows that the eye has moved further north, not south, since the previous fix.

Recon can take over an hour to run a plot, you might want to take a look at the last few radar frames...

The recon data is near real-time, 10-15 minutes old. I'd also trust it over radar observations. The motion over the last ~3 hours is ~290-295 degrees.

[CJPILOT]

Overall movement looks about 280' to me and this is kinda starting to remind me of Floyd?getting close to FL then to the OBX.

Concur, there was a slight wobble south that coincided with a large burst of convection on the northern tower. That convection probably caused a tilt and thus the wobble. On the last few frames convection burst is wrapping around to the west and thus giving Puerto Rico a strong lashing. In my opinion, we will see another shift west in the NHC track at 1400.

[AdamFirst]

The motion over the last ~3 hours is ~290-295 degrees.

Despite that the NHC says the motion has remained at 285.

[Dean4Storms]

Earl is gaining a bit more latitude currently than earlier this morning.

[sevenleft]

The motion over the last ~3 hours is ~290-295 degrees.

Despite that the NHC says the motion has remained at 285.

They use longer time periods to smooth out the motion. I'm just referencing the three center fixes from the AF recon mission, which have been in the last 3 hours.

[AdamFirst]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

If you switch to the close-range radar the southwestern part of the eyewall is coming into range.

[Air Force Met]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

Jeanne and this storm are apples and oranges. Jeanne was progged...from the beginning...to slow down on day 5. The islands tore it up...which messed up the steering flow (thus the models).

The steering currents were weak from the beginning. It was nothing like the established steering currents we have with Earl. There was no dominating ridge with Jeanne...just a weak area b/w the ridges that messed up the steering for a weakened system.

Earl and Jeanne are not at all in the same league...intensity wise or pattern wise. Floridians need not worry.

Remember...every case is different. You cannot say "because X did this...I will worry about Y"...unless the patterns are the same...and in this case...they are not.

[GCANE]

Feeder-band hot-towers continuing to fire.

[CJPILOT]

The recon data is near real-time, 10-15 minutes old. I'd also trust it over radar observations. The motion over the last ~3 hours is ~290-295 degrees.

Recon time stamp for a position report is realtime in that the time it was posted is recent, but flying a dogbone to develop the plot usually takes WELL over an hour. Looking at the radar/IR/VIS images shows there was a slight woble to the south, (probably due to tilting), but the storm continues moving west. Ultimately it means PR is going to get beat up which is verified by current radar

[eastcoastFL]

With the storms current movement and intenisty and I dont understand why floridians are not slightly concerned. Jeanne taught me a lesson about looking and trusting forcast tracks. I dont believe anything until the turn has started and the storm has started heading away from us.

Jeanne and this storm are apples and oranges. Jeanne was progged...from the beginning...to slow down on day 5. The islands tore it up...which messed up the steering flow (thus the models).

The steering currents were weak from the beginning. It was nothing like the established steering currents we have with Earl. There was no dominating ridge with Jeanne...just a weak area b/w the ridges that messed up the steering for a weakened system.

Earl and Jeanne are not at all in the same league...intensity wise or pattern wise. Floridians need not worry.

Remember...every case is different. You cannot say "because X did this...I will worry about Y"...unless the patterns are the same...and in this case...they are not.

Thanks for the response but here in south florida we were told not to worry about Jeanne as well and when I woke up the next morning it was time to hurry up and getting ready for a hurricane. This has given me just reason to not have 100% faith in the projected paths of the storms until they have made the "forcasted" turns. Otherwise I have nothing to base my decisions on. At this point I have a CAT 3 hurricane pointing right at me and currently moving straight towards me. The track has shifted west every time. I think you are being very brave by saying "florida doesnt have to worry" .

[Vortmax1]

Earl and Jeanne are not at all in the same league...intensity wise or pattern wise. Floridians need not worry.

Remember...every case is different. You cannot say "because X did this...I will worry about Y"...unless the patterns are the same...and in this case...they are not.

Thank you AirForceMet!
Excellent point...I hope all the Floridians read your comment.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Overall movement looks about 280' to me and this is kinda starting to remind me of Floyd?getting close to FL then to the OBX.

Forget the OBX, Floyd came in over Wilmington. I know, I was there. This is reminding me of Floyd also, that's why I am keeping a very close eye on this storm and hoping it makes its break for the north very soon.

[ravyrn]

Based upon my observation of this loop, it's beginning a northwestward jog slightly north of wnw.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the response but here in south florida we were told not to worry about Jeanne as well and when I woke up the next morning it was time to hurry up and getting ready for a hurricane. This has given me just reason to not have 100% faith in the projected paths of the storms until they have made the "forcasted" turns. Otherwise I have nothing to base my decisions on. At this point I have a CAT 3 hurricane pointing right at me and currently moving straight towards me. The track has shifted west every time. I think you are being very brave by saying "florida doesnt have to worry" .

Bravery has nothing to do with it. Air Force Met is a seasoned professional meteorologist who knows of what he speaks. You can choose to handle this storm any way you wish ... but on this board, you have the luxury of interacting with a number of pro mets who can tell you not only the WHAT but the WHY.

[SkeetoBite]

great point skeetobite, but could you give more details for those that may be here from east nc! IM

The easiest answer is to imagine the storm moving along an arc. It's not too difficult to visualize the storm moving in a sweeping curve through the forecast path.

Of course, some storms do indeed stop dead and change direction (rare), some have even stopped and done a loop (Jeanne 2004), and finally progressing near 90 degrees from their original course.

The forecast path is pretty straight forward for this storm given the current set-up. It's the east/west of track question at this point that has everyone watching closely.

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks for the response but here in south florida we were told not to worry about Jeanne as well and when I woke up the next morning it was time to hurry up and getting ready for a hurricane. This has given me just reason to not have 100% faith in the projected paths of the storms until they have made the "forcasted" turns. Otherwise I have nothing to base my decisions on. At this point I have a CAT 3 hurricane pointing right at me and currently moving straight towards me. The track has shifted west every time. I think you are being very brave by saying "florida doesnt have to worry" .

Perhaps you'd better get off the computer and get your preparations done then? He's a pro-met, so take whatever value you have in what he says and act accordingly! Just what is it you expect him to do?

[tolakram]

The recon data is near real-time, 10-15 minutes old. I'd also trust it over radar observations. The motion over the last ~3 hours is ~290-295 degrees.

Recon time stamp for a position report is realtime in that the time it was posted is recent, but flying a dogbone to develop the plot usually takes WELL over an hour. Looking at the radar/IR/VIS images shows there was a slight woble to the south, (probably due to tilting), but the storm continues moving west. Ultimately it means PR is going to get beat up which is verified by current radar

I see a steady NW movement now.

Long Loop:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[GCANE]

This is ingesting a huge amount of unstable air.

Can clearly see it wrapping in air with CAPE over 3000.

[Javlin]

Well in looking at 00z models the GFS,NOGAPS and CMC really do not show a real gain in Latitude till Earl comes upon Hispanola later today have to see if this verifies.Earl is slowing down which tells you the push W is not as strong and a turn can take place.

[thetruesms]

According to the last vortex message, Earl's dropped 7 mb to 957 in the last three hours