ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[anarchiver19]

How concerned at this point should we be here in Virginia Beach? I live at the "Oceanfront" (not right on the water, but but less than a quarter mile from the coast and I can see Rudee Inlet from my front steps). I've been here through Bonnie, Floyd and Isabel- but always well inland...this will be a first for me so close to the coast and if the Nor'Easter last November was a preview of what we may get with this storm (if it gets close enough) I'm a little nervous.

[ravyrn]

I see a steady NW movement now.

Long Loop:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Agreed! Glad to see it finally starting to pull northwestward!

[fig]

Overall movement looks about 280' to me and this is kinda starting to remind me of Floyd?getting close to FL then to the OBX.

Forget the OBX, Floyd came in over Wilmington. I know, I was there. This is reminding me of Floyd also, that's why I am keeping a very close eye on this storm and hoping it makes its break for the north very soon.

I thought Floyd was supposed to be a Florida threat and then the cone slowly made it's way up the coast to us in Wilmington... either way I remember him, and won't breathe a sigh of relief for this one til it's north of me!

[RevDodd]

I thought Floyd was supposed to be a Florida threat and then the cone slowly made it's way up the coast to us in Wilmington... either way I remember him, and won't breathe a sigh of relief for this one til it's north of me!

Correct, Fig. this would be a reverse Floyd....sliding to the left after he was supposed to start turning. The end result would look similar, though.

[supercane]

Latest images from St Maarten radar:


Note that the web page apparently only updates the image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[UpTheCreek]

How concerned at this point should we be here in Virginia Beach? I live at the "Oceanfront" (not right on the water, but but less than a quarter mile from the coast and I can see Rudee Inlet from my front steps). I've been here through Bonnie, Floyd and Isabel- but always well inland...this will be a first for me so close to the coast and if the Nor'Easter last November was a preview of what we may get with this storm (if it gets close enough) I'm a little nervous.

This is what I have done. I ran my generator yesterday....today I am removing everything off of my dock out back. My boat is on a lift and if by Thursday morning I believe we are going to get a decent hit from this, I'll remove my boat from the water, get fuel for the generator, be sure we have plenty of food and water on hand and maybe pick up some extra batteries. Just prepare folks and keep your eye on the track.

This storm is a long way off and while I have a good deal of faith in the NHC, their forecast points 4-5 days from now can be hundreds and hundreds of miles off! Folks on the east coast, RELAX!!! Be vigilant, but relax already! There's more than a good chance this will remain out to sea. Although the trend seems to be in the other direction, but that's only for the NOW.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde just estimated the pressure down to 955mb, down 5 in just 2 hours.

[deltadog03]

Ya, FL doesn't have to worry about this one at all. The surfers should be happy tho!!! I still NC **could** see a glancing blow from earl. Again some outside feeders with a bit of wind more than likely. We are heading into SEP..things progress rather nicely from here on out into fall. (pattern wise)

[CrazyC83]

How concerned at this point should we be here in Virginia Beach? I live at the "Oceanfront" (not right on the water, but but less than a quarter mile from the coast and I can see Rudee Inlet from my front steps). I've been here through Bonnie, Floyd and Isabel- but always well inland...this will be a first for me so close to the coast and if the Nor'Easter last November was a preview of what we may get with this storm (if it gets close enough) I'm a little nervous.

You don't have a lot of room for error. You'll probably be looking at least at strong winds and rain, but if this makes landfall or comes close, hurricane conditions are likely.

[GTStorm]

Overall movement looks about 280' to me and this is kinda starting to remind me of Floyd?getting close to FL then to the OBX.

Forget the OBX, Floyd came in over Wilmington. I know, I was there. This is reminding me of Floyd also, that's why I am keeping a very close eye on this storm and hoping it makes its break for the north very soon.

I thought Floyd was supposed to be a Florida threat and then the cone slowly made it's way up the coast to us in Wilmington... either way I remember him, and won't breathe a sigh of relief for this one til it's north of me!

Floyd did a pretty sharp curve just east of the bahamas if I recall. Up until then everyone on the east coast from Miami to Myrtle Beach was in panic mode.
Earl looks like it may beginning the nw motion that has been anticipated.

[wxman57]

Based upon my observation of this loop, it's beginning a northwestward jog slightly north of wnw.

Agree. I plotted the last 3 hours of satellite positions and measured a 3hr movement toward 312 deg and a 2hr movement of 320 deg. That's NW for now.

[MGC]

Earl's eye does appear to be contracting on radar....still looks to be kinda open to the west........MGC

[sevenleft]

Based upon my observation of this loop, it's beginning a northwestward jog slightly north of wnw.

Agree. I plotted the last 3 hours of satellite positions and measured a 3hr movement toward 312 deg and a 2hr movement of 320 deg. That's NW for now.

The last 3 hours of recon fixes yields about 295 degrees. Pretty big difference there. (From 1222z to 1556z)

Though on satellite, it does look to jump substantially to the northwest in the last hour.

[Just Joshing You]

Nova Scotia in the 5 day cone.. uh oh.

Could this be a Juanabee? Different angle of attack, of course.

[UpTheCreek]

Based upon my observation of this loop, it's beginning a northwestward jog slightly north of wnw.

Agree. I plotted the last 3 hours of satellite positions and measured a 3hr movement toward 312 deg and a 2hr movement of 320 deg. That's NW for now.

Excellent! Cross our fingers and hope that's a trend from here on out!

[HURAKAN]

beautiful

[CJPILOT]

Earl's eye does appear to be contracting on radar....still looks to be kinda open to the west........MGC

The western squall line is beating the crap out of PR. AVN shows another burst of convection firing on the east side of the eyewall.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[MGC]

Lets hope that NW trend continues and the eyewall remains offshore.

Has Cycloneye posted lately? I guess that feederband knocked out power like he though...MGC

[otowntiger]

Remember, as intense as "Earl" might be heading up the east coast, even if the center stays just 100 miles east of land then the impacts to land will be minimal. The impacts on the west side of a storm are always over exaggerated.

Thank you FOX13, but "always" is a very strong word. I lived in NOLA during Katrina and we were on the west side of the storm.

The original point is still valid. The damage from wind was much worse on the eastern side of Katrina. N.O. got just cat one winds on the west side. Of course that's nothing to sneeze at and certainly that's all it took for the levees to be overtopped.