ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[x-y-no]

Talked with Cycloneye by phone a few minutes ago. He is ok and his family too but there is not power were he lives. Until now, we don't have any report of fatalities, no major damages; a lot of rain, strong wind. I'll be, as a tv reporter, working in the east zone of the island, so if I can I'll keep you posted.

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Thanks for the update Fego, and stay safe.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[GCANE]

Vertical Core temp profile is now where Danielle was at Cat 4.

However, it is narrower.

[pcolaman]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes
Looks like the westward track is now continuing

[UpTheCreek]

i live in carteret county in NC how much of this do you think we will get the outer banks is north east of us but not that far

Sandy, it's way, way too early to make any predictions. I wouldn't even worry about it until Wednesday, especially if it starts getting pulled north soon.

Bad advice. Definitely keep an eye on it. Wednesday would be too late to make any real preparations on the NC coast, as you'll begin feeling the effects of this storm within around 24hrs of Wednesday morning. If you wait until Wednesday, you'll risk long lines and many stores being closed beginning Wednesday PM. NHC's plot suggests this thing is gonna start booking it starting Wednesday AM.

You need to start planning today, and based upon it's track over the next 24 hrs, make preparations tomorrow on Tuesday, if not today. Make sure you fill up your vehicle with gas today as well as any gas cans you got handy.

I didn't assume she wasn't prepared, you obviously did. We simply won't know if this will affect us or not until Wednesday, my friend. That's all she asked. Oh, the drama.

[sandyb]

thanks for replying to my post think i will go home after work and get things put away just incase guess it can never hurt to be ready if they put us under hurricane watch/warning when do you think that will be done?

[Fego]

We got a tornado warning!!

[ravyrn]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Looks like the westward track is now continuing

In that loop, it still looks 300ish to me.

[eastcoastFL]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Looks like the westward track is now continuing

In that loop, it still looks 300ish to me.

Someone previously stated that it would be stepping stairs. So we ill prob see a few jogs west then a few north and so on until its ready to head poleward

[wxman57]

Is there any chance of that parts of NJ could experience TS force winds? I would think that unless the TS winds spread out beyond 300 miles across while the storm curves to the N/NE, then there is no chance of getting TS force winds.

Come on, CW! You know there's a chance! Most of NJ is in the latest cone. Why wouldn't there be a chance? I've read your posts, you know better!

Well I'm basing this on Earl following the center of the NHC forecast cone, not the possible west or east shifts of the center track which could still happen.

If Earl follows the current forecast track and if its wind field is predicted correctly, then the current forecast is for winds of 20-30 mph along the coast of New Jersey as Earl passes. TS winds would pass to the east of the Jersey coast. Of course, if it tracks farther west, you could see TS winds.

[ColinDelia]

Whomever asked about New Jersey's chance of getting TS/Hurricane winds. You can get the Hurricane Center's probability of getting TS or hurricane force winds for selected cities here. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1445.shtml

These are cumulative probabilities through 12z Saturday:
Atlantic City. 22% TS, 3% Hurricane
Newark. 18% TS, 1% Hurricane
Trenton. 16% TS, 1% Hurricane

[ravyrn]

I didn't assume she wasn't prepared, you obviously did. We simply won't know if this will affect us or not until Wednesday, my friend. That's all she asked. Oh, the drama.

I'm sorry. I assume anyone who asks for advice is unprepared in case they are. I'm still inclined to disagree with you regarding someone on NC's coast not worrying about this until Wednesday. If Earl goes west of NHC's plot, your advice could leave Sandy with less than 36 hrs to prepare for a direct hit.... and if stores close Wednesday PM, that won't leave much time for anything. Which is why I very adamantly professed my opinion. No drama intended.

[stormchazer]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Looks like the westward track is now continuing

I think you can see its movement better via sat. Looks like stair steps but generally WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[eastcoastFL]

Can anyone post a recent visible or radar loop?

[UpTheCreek]

thanks for replying to my post think i will go home after work and get things put away just incase guess it can never hurt to be ready if they put us under hurricane watch/warning when do you think that will be done?

Maybe Wednesday for a Watch, if the track holds true. That doesn't matter though, be prepared for the worst and hope for the best! Are you new to the area?

[hurricaneCW]

Okay thank you for the response. As of now things look pretty good here besides the high waves and rip currents. Unfortunately, with the Labor Day weekend arriving, the beaches will start getting very busy as early as Friday.

[supercane]

Last image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the 1-hr image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

[UpTheCreek]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Looks like the westward track is now continuing

I think you can see its movement better via sat. Looks like stair steps but generally WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Looks right on the forecast points to me.

[pcolaman]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]