ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[artist]

We got a tornado warning!!

stay safe and let us know when it has passed ( the warning)

[sandyb]

no i have been here all my life but the local weather is showing it staying off shore way off of the Outer Banks I watched tv 12 at noon but he did say he thought Earl might even bend closer to the inner banks (?) I don't know where the inner banks are atlantic beach maybe? but the track the hurricane center is showing seems like we will be ok here in carteret county and I wanted to know what you all thought casue you all seem very informed and well educated on storms and i appreciate your imput so I can be ready and have my family informed cause as of right now they all see only what the tv is showing,

[Canelaw99]

Wow this thing is looking mighty impressive. I'm just sorry it had to look this good & ramp up this fast so close to the islands. Hope all of y'all are staying safe!!!!

[emeraldislencguy]

hi newbern guyI live at emerald isle about 75 yards from ocean
I am really watching the storm now
lets keep in touch

[sandyb]

hi newbern guyI live at emerald isle about 75 yards from ocean
I am really watching the storm now
lets keep in touch

hey another one from cc i live in newport what do you think about this do you think if it hits the outbanks we will have any effects here in carteret county?

[StormClouds63]

Shape beginning to change from concentric circle to egg-shaped ... orientation more north/south as the trough begins to pull the system more northward.

[UpTheCreek]

no i have been here all my life but the local weather is showing it staying off shore way off of the Outer Banks I watched tv 12 at noon but he did say he thought Earl might even bend closer to the inner banks (?) I don't know where the inner banks are atlantic beach maybe? but the track the hurricane center is showing seems like we will be ok here in carteret county and I wanted to know what you all thought casue you all seem very informed and well educated on storms and i appreciate your imput so I can be ready and have my family informed cause as of right now they all see only what the tv is showing,

Inner Banks are referring to downeast, like Harker's Island and such.....inside the sounds. I'm not so well educated, but starting to get interested during Isabel. I got admonished for giving you bad advice, but assuming you're prepared, I really don't think we'll know a more concrete track until Wednesday. Nobody does, even Skip Waters! Just keep an eye out.

Looks like NHC updated advisory at 1 pm today instead of 2. Their track has stayed the same as their 11 advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... e#contents

[Brent]

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

AT 2 PM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AND 130 MILES...
210 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[ravyrn]

no i have been here all my life but the local weather is showing it staying off shore way off of the Outer Banks I watched tv 12 at noon but he did say he thought Earl might even bend closer to the inner banks (?) I don't know where the inner banks are atlantic beach maybe? but the track the hurricane center is showing seems like we will be ok here in carteret county and I wanted to know what you all thought casue you all seem very informed and well educated on storms and i appreciate your imput so I can be ready and have my family informed cause as of right now they all see only what the tv is showing,

In my unprofessional opinion, I don't think you guys in Carteret County will get too much from Earl. Just keep an eye on it. Tomorrow at this time, if you're in the NHC's 3-day cone, I would take the initiative to get supplies. UpTheCreek is likely correct with his assessment, I'm just a bit more cautious than he is. Tomorrow if you find yourself in the 3-day cone, run your Hurricane routine. Don't wait until Wednesday.

[invest man]

track guidance will not change before the 5 pm adv. I'm also a long time resident from carteret and now live in craven and have lots of family still in carteret. IM

[sandyb]

no i have been here all my life but the local weather is showing it staying off shore way off of the Outer Banks I watched tv 12 at noon but he did say he thought Earl might even bend closer to the inner banks (?) I don't know where the inner banks are atlantic beach maybe? but the track the hurricane center is showing seems like we will be ok here in carteret county and I wanted to know what you all thought casue you all seem very informed and well educated on storms and i appreciate your imput so I can be ready and have my family informed cause as of right now they all see only what the tv is showing,

Inner Banks are referring to downeast, like Harker's Island and such.....inside the sounds. I'm not so well educated, but starting to get interested during Isabel. I got admonished for giving you bad advice, but assuming you're prepared, I really don't think we'll know a more concrete track until Wednesday. Nobody does, even Skip Waters! Just keep an eye out.

Looks like NHC updated advisory at 1 pm today instead of 2. Their track has stayed the same as their 11 advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... e#contents

no you were fine...thanks for info have you see the model runs on the model page some of them have it coming right on land just south of carteret county...i just saw that, don't know if that is gonna happen but it is worth watching

[artist]

no i have been here all my life but the local weather is showing it staying off shore way off of the Outer Banks I watched tv 12 at noon but he did say he thought Earl might even bend closer to the inner banks (?) I don't know where the inner banks are atlantic beach maybe? but the track the hurricane center is showing seems like we will be ok here in carteret county and I wanted to know what you all thought casue you all seem very informed and well educated on storms and i appreciate your imput so I can be ready and have my family informed cause as of right now they all see only what the tv is showing,

sandy - here is what your local weather service is saying at this time regarding Earl. It is out of Wilmington, NC -

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THURSDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND SIZE OF EARL AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT BEST AS THE STORM PASSES JUST
OVER 300 MILES EAST OF THE COAST SOME OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PASSES
OVER MAINLY NC ZONES. A TRACK FURTHER WEST WOULD OBVIOUSLY IMPLY
MORE CLOUDINESS AND SOME MORE WIND OVER LAND AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
A SQUALLY OUTER RAINBAND SUCH AS THAT IMPLIED BY THE 00Z GFS AND TO
A LESSER EXTEND THE ECMWF (BOTH OF WHICH REPRESENT LARGE WESTWARD
SHIFTS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS). MOST OF THE EFFECTS, FOR NOW, APPEAR TO
BE CONFINED TO MARINE/BEACH ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE WAVES/STRONG RIPS
RESPECTIVELY. REST OF FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FRIDAY
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LATE DAY OR NIGHTTIME FROPA DEVOID OF ANY
REAL RAIN CHANCES.

here is the link for you so you can check it daily. I hope it helps somewhat.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... ion#AFDILM

[x-y-no]

Looks like NHC updated advisory at 1 pm today instead of 2. Their track has stayed the same as their 11 advisory.

They're doing intermediate advisories every 2 hours because of proximity to land. But track is only updated in the full advisories.

[emeraldislencguy]

thanks
I agree wed will be too late to start everything
esp if you have to work wed am
the advisory this afternoon and tonight
will be interesting
we all keep waiting for the nw turn
I think it may be a close call
everyone is talking about it here

[Luc56]

thanks
I agree wed will be too late to start everything
esp if you have to work wed am
the advisory this afternoon and tonight
will be interesting
we all keep waiting for the nw turn
I think it may be a close call
everyone is talking about it here

When you type your message like this I keep expecting it to be a poem before I read it.

[UpTheCreek]

Looks like NHC updated advisory at 1 pm today instead of 2. Their track has stayed the same as their 11 advisory.

They're doing intermediate advisories every 2 hours because of proximity to land. But track is only updated in the full advisories.

I see, I figured it was updated since the track map said 1 PM on it. Thanks for the clarification!

[Macrocane]

You can see on this thread some webcams http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&start=0

look at St. Marteen, St. Croix and St. John They having a hard time.

[HURAKAN]

beautiful

[UpTheCreek]

For those of us in NC, this is how I think it'll play out. The only exception to my idea is if it makes a direct landfall on our coastline. We'll certainly feel tropical storm force winds, maybe even hurricane force if it's close enough. We'll be on the west side hopefully, so that should give us some reprieve from the full force. Our problem, especially inside the banks like Newport and where I live in New Bern, will be the wind driven tide. The water in the sounds will be pushed up into the creeks and rivers giving us some serious flooding. Not to mention any rainfall that will add to it. The faster the storm moves past us, the better in that regard. I really don't think it'll be anything like Isabel, which made landfall to the north of us here in Carteret and Craven Counties. If the track changes to the west any further, all bets are off and some of us could be on the wrong side of this, especially towards the coast like Emerald Isle guy. But I'll repeat myself and say that we won't have a handle on exact position until at least Wednesday sometime.

Boy, I hope it takes a good, hard right turn soon!

[eastcoastFL]

What an amazing storm.