ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[TheBurn]

GOES-E LOOP CLOSE-UP
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[Frank2]

I'd appreciate input from the Pro Mets here on what we are seeing on the WV loop - for some reason it's hard for me to discern what is to the north of Earl : )

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Just a guess, but my guess is that the NHC is having a hard time trying to discern that, too...

[artist]

go here for Special Weather statements for the Wilmington area regarding Earl from the NWS -

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... ial#HWOILM

Scroll through and you can find out about other beach areas of NC as well.

[Luc56]

I'm just wondering where people go to find the latest GFS track maps for tropical storms? I know of the big name trackers such as NHC, but unsure where to find ones like GFS. If anyone could provide a link that would be much appreciated.

[HURAKAN]

I'm just wondering where people go to find the latest GFS track maps for tropical storms? I know of the big name trackers such as NHC, but unsure where to find ones like GFS. If anyone could provide a link that would be much appreciated.

Link - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

[artist]

I'm just wondering where people go to find the latest GFS track maps for tropical storms? I know of the big name trackers such as NHC, but unsure where to find ones like GFS. If anyone could provide a link that would be much appreciated.

and remember that the gfs is usually incorporated into the NHC track.

[JPmia]

I'd appreciate input from the Pro Mets here on what we are seeing on the WV loop - for some reason it's hard for me to discern what is to the north of Earl : )

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Just a guess, but my guess is that the NHC is having a hard time trying to discern that, too...

That's what i was wondering earlier this morning...appears that area of dry air west of Earl is nosing down further than anticipated?

[Steve]

Joe B has hurricane conditions in the Outer Banks and possibly Cape Cod.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724 ... f-earl.asp

[ravyrn]

thanks for info have you see the model runs on the model page some of them have it coming right on land just south of carteret county...i just saw that, don't know if that is gonna happen but it is worth watching

What you saw were 2 or 3 of the 20 GFS ensembles (20 doesn't include the GFS control and operational). While it's definitely worth keeping a watchful eye, don't fret too much over a few of the ensembles. If you want to watch the model trends, the GFS operational, CMC, and the Euro (in my unprofessional opinion) are the models you want to watch for westward trends.

[Frank2]

That's what i was wondering earlier this morning...appears that area of dry air west of Earl is nosing down further than anticipated?

Perhaps - something appears different than what is mentioned in the TCD...

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU

115 knots, cat 4

[eastcoastFL]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Last 2 frames jump to the west. Probably a wobble.

[eastcoastFL]

looks like its rigth on track for the next forecast point

[Frank2]

Last 2 frames jump to the west. Probably a wobble.

Earl's immediate environment is being squeezed, that's for certain - not sure how it'll respond to that...

[jes]

This gives us an idea of what msbee, Luis and the others on the islands are going through right now

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 77952.html

[GCANE]

Looks like it has been wobbling quite a bit.

I think this is due mostly to the core tilting and stretching as it intensifies.

The tilting in turn could be producing down-drafts and inhibiting boundary-layer inflow.

So, bottom line, Earl may now be settling down a bit into a more steady-state condition as the core realigns vertically.

[Dean4Storms]

That is a substantial west wobble!

[artist]

Last 2 frames jump to the west. Probably a wobble.

Earl's immediate environment is being squeezed, that's for certain - not sure how it'll respond to that...

I don't like it when you say such things.
What I mean is you are always a voice of calm and optimism when it gets stormy around here.

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone have any wind readings from the islands? Interested to see what they are maxing out at right now?

[UpTheCreek]

This gives us an idea of what msbee, Luis and the others on the islands are going through right now

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 77952.html

Wow, I'm saying a prayer for them. I think the strength and proximity of the storm caught them a bit by surprise. Hope there's no loss of life.