ATL: FIONA - Models

[5KOVERLIBOR]

First-time poster, long-time lurker, and I'll be going back to that following this.

This is an excellent site, and I can tell you people use this. Professionals use this site as a tool. So, I say this with all due respect for those who run a rare gem on the info super camino.

This is the model thread for 97L. The GFS operational is now through 150 hours and...no Fiona. For the second straight on-the-run run (0z was missing her as well) there is no development of Fiona. Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

And there is no discussion of it on this board? I can't read the good thoughts of those who contribute as to why a global model that had Fiona consistently no longer has her? I get that this isn't a cane model, I get that the GFS can be as capricious as a pack of 13-yr old girls mealing on pixie sticks at the mall. But why isn't anyone talking about it? That's what this site does, it talks about that. Where is that?

[Blown Away]

Close up look at the model map, I see many models feeling the transition from Earl's weakness to a building ridge. Most are now bending west or stalling, so if 97L develops I think we may continue seeing the models moving away from the sharp recurve. Again, the NHC likes to hug the TVCN (gray line) and that model shows the west bend.

[AdamFirst]

Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

And there is no discussion of it on this board? I can't read the good thoughts of those who contribute as to why a global model that had Fiona consistently no longer has her? I get that this isn't a cane model, I get that the GFS can be as capricious as a pack of 13-yr old girls mealing on pixie sticks at the mall. But why isn't anyone talking about it? That's what this site does, it talks about that. Where is that?

Most likely because the GFS has been struggling with 97L/Future Fiona this whole time. The fact of the matter is that 97L is very very close to being declared a depression at the moment.

[BigB0882]

First-time poster, long-time lurker, and I'll be going back to that following this.

This is an excellent site, and I can tell you people use this. Professionals use this site as a tool. So, I say this with all due respect for those who run a rare gem on the info super camino.

This is the model thread for 97L. The GFS operational is now through 150 hours and...no Fiona. For the second straight on-the-run run (0z was missing her as well) there is no development of Fiona. Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

And there is no discussion of it on this board? I can't read the good thoughts of those who contribute as to why a global model that had Fiona consistently no longer has her? I get that this isn't a cane model, I get that the GFS can be as capricious as a pack of 13-yr old girls mealing on pixie sticks at the mall. But why isn't anyone talking about it? That's what this site does, it talks about that. Where is that?

Well the % has gone from 80% to 90% since yesterday. Many of the most educated people on here think it looks like it could be on its way to TD status by tonight. If that happens then isn't the GFS already wrong with regards to not developing this? Or is "development" only when you have a TS or Hurricane? I thought a TD would count but I could be wrong. I think the lack of development is probably because of Earl "eating" 97L but that still seems unlikely with 97L heading W and Earl finally heading more NW. The gap that has been closing between them shouldn't continue to close at this point and will probably begin to expand.

[x-y-no]

This is the model thread for 97L. The GFS operational is now through 150 hours and...no Fiona. For the second straight on-the-run run (0z was missing her as well) there is no development of Fiona. Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

Last night's 18z GFS lost it after 72 hours. So yeah, it held on for a whole 24 hours more than most of the other runs have. But I'd hardly call that seeing the system.

And you may recall, at approximately the same relative positions, the GFS was keeping Earl very weak and SE of Danielle, much like it has been pretty consistently doing with 97L.

The GFS solution is possible, but I think it's less than likely. 97L will certainly be inhibited by Earl's outflow, but I don't believe it will be totally shredded by it.

[tolakram]

And there is no discussion of it on this board?

There has been, actually. Some models struggle with particular setups, in this case it appears the GFS can't discern 97L from Earl and has it absorbing whatever 97L is. The Canadian is now doing this as well. It may be they're correct, but the Euro is showing a different solution and the Euro, while it has its own set of errors, can't be ignored.

Reality is probably somewhere in between.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
some of the models are trending more west.

[shah8]

12z canadian keeps the 00z idea of Earl absorbing.

[Frank2]

As others have mentioned, this view of the GFS doesn't acknowledge the existence of 97L:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[MWatkins]

First-time poster, long-time lurker, and I'll be going back to that following this.

This is an excellent site, and I can tell you people use this. Professionals use this site as a tool. So, I say this with all due respect for those who run a rare gem on the info super camino.

This is the model thread for 97L. The GFS operational is now through 150 hours and...no Fiona. For the second straight on-the-run run (0z was missing her as well) there is no development of Fiona. Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

And there is no discussion of it on this board? I can't read the good thoughts of those who contribute as to why a global model that had Fiona consistently no longer has her? I get that this isn't a cane model, I get that the GFS can be as capricious as a pack of 13-yr old girls mealing on pixie sticks at the mall. But why isn't anyone talking about it? That's what this site does, it talks about that. Where is that?

Bleeping great question. I suppose, if there weren't 2 active hurricanes going on there would be more talk about this...but as such some folks are distracted and others, because these hurricanes don't look to threaten the US, are disinterested.

However, the GFS not seeing a feature is not new. Back in 2003, Isabel was a major hurricane yet for some reason, the GFS couldn't resolve it (at all) in the model fields. Talk got so heated around that subject that people believed it was a government conspiracy to cover up the hurricane in the model, so people wouldn't see where it might go!

My guess is three-fold:

1. The system is very shallow and has had a difficult time sustaining deep convection, despite the overall low coud structure. As a result, the GFS isn't initializing much vorticity in 850MB fields initially, and isn't creating enough "modeled" convergance to spin up the cyclone.

2. The thermodynamic environment around 97L isn't super favorable. Earl and Danielle struggled in this area too....

3. Earl is growing to be a significant cyclone, and the outflow from Earl could choke whatever 97 is trying to muster. However, this has also been showing up as a physics problem because the GFS has wanted to absorb 97L into Earl, again because it doesn't seem to have a handle on what's actually happening with 97l.

GFS and the other global models didn't see Felix when it was a 5 a couple of years ago...again not sure why. But it's probably because in terms of the global models, tropical cyclones are such small synoptic features the don't always show up in the grids.

I hope this helps, and keep the good questions coming!

MW

[Vortex]

Great post mike as usual....What are your personal thoughts on 97?

[artist]

First-time poster, long-time lurker, and I'll be going back to that following this.

This is an excellent site, and I can tell you people use this. Professionals use this site as a tool. So, I say this with all due respect for those who run a rare gem on the info super camino.

This is the model thread for 97L. The GFS operational is now through 150 hours and...no Fiona. For the second straight on-the-run run (0z was missing her as well) there is no development of Fiona. Importantly, the GFS op was seeing her yesterday, and has now dropped her since yesterday's 18z.

And there is no discussion of it on this board? I can't read the good thoughts of those who contribute as to why a global model that had Fiona consistently no longer has her? I get that this isn't a cane model, I get that the GFS can be as capricious as a pack of 13-yr old girls mealing on pixie sticks at the mall. But why isn't anyone talking about it? That's what this site does, it talks about that. Where is that?

Bleeping great question. I suppose, if there weren't 2 active hurricanes going on there would be more talk about this...but as such some folks are distracted and others, because these hurricanes don't look to threaten the US, are disinterested.

However, the GFS not seeing a feature is not new. Back in 2003, Isabel was a major hurricane yet for some reason, the GFS couldn't resolve it (at all) in the model fields. Talk got so heated around that subject that people believed it was a government conspiracy to cover up the hurricane in the model, so people wouldn't see where it might go!

My guess is three-fold:

1. The system is very shallow and has had a difficult time sustaining deep convection, despite the overall low coud structure. As a result, the GFS isn't initializing much vorticity in 850MB fields initially, and isn't creating enough "modeled" convergance to spin up the cyclone.

2. The thermodynamic environment around 97L isn't super favorable. Earl and Danielle struggled in this area too....

3. Earl is growing to be a significant cyclone, and the outflow from Earl could choke whatever 97 is trying to muster. However, this has also been showing up as a physics problem because the GFS has wanted to absorb 97L into Earl, again because it doesn't seem to have a handle on what's actually happening with 97l.

GFS and the other global models didn't see Felix when it was a 5 a couple of years ago...again not sure why. But it's probably because in terms of the global models, tropical cyclones are such small synoptic features the don't always show up in the grids.

I hope this helps, and keep the good questions coming!

MW

good to see you Mike! Was just thinking about you. Hope your foot is better.
Regarding what you posted. What are your thoughts? Do you think 97l will become a viable system?

[allicat1214]

Fiona might be birthing as we speak:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 12z 72Hrs

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^

Euro seems to imply plenty of distance between these two systems 72 Hours out. I think it's too soon to proclaim gloom and doom for future Fiona.

[Wx_Warrior]

96 hrs

[Vortex]

Euro H+120 just NE of bahamas




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

[Vortex]

looks like a carbon copy of the 00z run....

[Vortex]

looks like easy recurvature on this run between bermuda and the states...