ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

That is a substantial west wobble!

True but its right on track for the 00Z forecast

[artist]

Anyone have any wind readings from the islands? Interested to see what they are maxing out at right now?

here is the National data buoy's page just for Earl. Hope this helps -


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

[Frank2]

Well, my concern is that what we see in the WV loop doesn't match what is mentioned in the TCD (one of those "Something doesn't look right" moments) - just a guess, but it seems a weather feature (to the north of Earl) is stronger than forecast - I'm just not sure what that is...

Frank

[Hurrilurker]

Interesting list of Caribbean webcams:

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/caribbean-web-cams/

Some show some really gnarly weather, some actually are calm, but many of the cams are down completely (or moved by the wind, or so dark you can't see anything), those are probably the worst of all. As bad as Earl is, though, it could have been much much worse if it were just a little more south.

[SootyTern]

Frank2, could that feature pull Earl poleward more quickly than the NHC forecast track?

[artist]

Well, my concern is that what we see in the WV loop doesn't match what is mentioned in the TCD (one of those "Something doesn't look right" moments) - just a guess, but it seems a weather feature (to the north of Earl) is stronger than forecast - I'm just not sure what that is...

Frank

thanks Frank, and I am guessing you are concerned it could push it a little more to the west?

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone have any wind readings from the islands? Interested to see what they are maxing out at right now?

here is the National data buoy's page just for Earl. Hope this helps -


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

Thank yuo. looks like the highest gust so far is 46knots hopefully its no worse than that on the islands.

[capepoint]

Joe B has hurricane conditions in the Outer Banks and possibly Cape Cod.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724 ... f-earl.asp

Shewl, thats a relief. i was just about to go buy a generator. Now I can save that money

[artist]

This gives us an idea of what msbee, Luis and the others on the islands are going through right now

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/ ... 77952.html

thanks for posting, from the article -

...Earl's eye passed just north of the tiny British territory of Anguilla, where police said the wind blew the roofs off buildings and damaged utility poles.

"The winds are whistling outside," said Martin Gussie, a police officer involved in coordinating the emergency response. "When the gusts of wind come, each time it sounds stronger."

In Antigua, wind and rain destroyed at least one home, though there were no reports of critical injuries. Emergency response officials said about 350 people were in shelters. Local weather authorities reported at least 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain and 10-foot (3-meter) waves.

In St. Maarten, the storm toppled trees, damaged roofs and knocked out electricity to much of the island. Heavy gusts of wind swirled debris across streets that were empty due to a government-imposed curfew.

Alisha Daya, a 24-year-old tourist from Milwaukee, said she wore earplugs Sunday night but still had trouble sleeping because of the noise from the wind and crashing waves at the Oyster Bay Beach Resort in St. Maarten.

"It was loud because we were right on the ocean," said Daya, who said the storm will keep her and her parents and boyfriend from leaving the island as planned on Monday although the worst seemed to have passed. "Some furniture is flying around, but everything seems to be OK."...

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Dean4Storms]

I'd appreciate input from the Pro Mets here on what we are seeing on the WV loop - for some reason it's hard for me to discern what is to the north of Earl : )

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Just a guess, but my guess is that the NHC is having a hard time trying to discern that, too...

That's what i was wondering earlier this morning...appears that area of dry air west of Earl is nosing down further than anticipated?

Here a better picture.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html


That dry air is the ridge that is just along the eastern Seaboard giving the NE states all the heat. You can also see the weakness from Danielle just to the east of the dry air extending up to Danielle. In between the Eastern Seaboard ridge that is dropping SSW and Earl you can see just a very narrow sub-tropical ridge that is extending from just north of Earl eastward. The Eastern Seaboard ridge with all the dry air moving southward toward Earl is forecasted to weaken and move SW as that trough in the central Gulfstates rides up and around it. Once the Eastern Seaboard ridge weakens this is when over the next day or two that we expect to see Earl turn more northward and then north of 30N begin to get caught up in the trough that will swing through the east bringing a relief to the heat in the NE!

[Frank2]

LOL - it's funny one asked whether it could go further west, the other asked if it could further north...

Well...

[Frank2]

Here a better picture.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html


That dry air is the ridge that is just along the eastern Seaboard giving the NE states all the heat. You can also see the weakness from Danielle just to the east of the dry air extending up to Danielle. In between the Eastern Seaboard ridge that is dropping SSW and Earl you can see just a very narrow sub-tropical ridge that is extending from just north of Earl eastward. The Eastern Seaboard ridge with all the dry air moving southward toward Earl is forecasted to weaken and move SW as that trough in the central Gulfstates rides up and around it. Once the Eastern Seaboard ridge weakens this is when over the next day or two that we expect to see Earl turn more northward and then north of 30N begin to get caught up in the trough that will swing through the east bringing a relief to the heat in the NE!

Dean,

Thanks - that's an awesome WV loop and makes things clearer (in my head - lol)...

Still, that's a very impressive feature to the north of Earl, and perhaps stronger than has been forecast - a very dynamic and fluid environment, that's for sure...

[UpTheCreek]

Joe B has hurricane conditions in the Outer Banks and possibly Cape Cod.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/432724 ... f-earl.asp

Shewl, thats a relief. i was just about to go buy a generator. Now I can save that money

lol.....

Actually, that was a fairly reasonable forecast from JB, I think. Except that he already has his track a couple hundred miles west of NHC's. Which is fine, but then goes on to say that it could have a 50 mile deviation from his track to the west and that would make things interesting. He's got the whole gamut covered, looks to me! But he's right about one thing, it's the only weather we've got!

[eastcoastFL]

on radar it looks like the eye is getting a bit wider

[artist]

I'd appreciate input from the Pro Mets here on what we are seeing on the WV loop - for some reason it's hard for me to discern what is to the north of Earl : )

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Just a guess, but my guess is that the NHC is having a hard time trying to discern that, too...

That's what i was wondering earlier this morning...appears that area of dry air west of Earl is nosing down further than anticipated?

Here a better picture.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html


That dry air is the ridge that is just along the eastern Seaboard giving the NE states all the heat. You can also see the weakness from Danielle just to the east of the dry air extending up to Danielle. In between the Eastern Seaboard ridge that is dropping SSW and Earl you can see just a very narrow sub-tropical ridge that is extending from just north of Earl eastward. The Eastern Seaboard ridge with all the dry air moving southward toward Earl is forecasted to weaken and move SW as that trough in the central Gulfstates rides up and around it. Once the Eastern Seaboard ridge weakens this is when over the next day or two that we expect to see Earl turn more northward and then north of 30N begin to get caught up in the trough that will swing through the east bringing a relief to the heat in the NE!

great description! And if that dry air does nose down further, what could the implications of that be?

[StormGuy]

on radar it looks like the eye is getting a bit wider

And less jagged.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I'd appreciate input from the Pro Mets here on what we are seeing on the WV loop - for some reason it's hard for me to discern what is to the north of Earl : )

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Just a guess, but my guess is that the NHC is having a hard time trying to discern that, too...

That's what i was wondering earlier this morning...appears that area of dry air west of Earl is nosing down further than anticipated?

Here a better picture.......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html


That dry air is the ridge that is just along the eastern Seaboard giving the NE states all the heat. You can also see the weakness from Danielle just to the east of the dry air extending up to Danielle. In between the Eastern Seaboard ridge that is dropping SSW and Earl you can see just a very narrow sub-tropical ridge that is extending from just north of Earl eastward. The Eastern Seaboard ridge with all the dry air moving southward toward Earl is forecasted to weaken and move SW as that trough in the central Gulfstates rides up and around it. Once the Eastern Seaboard ridge weakens this is when over the next day or two that we expect to see Earl turn more northward and then north of 30N begin to get caught up in the trough that will swing through the east bringing a relief to the heat in the NE!

well theres no weakness in the High pressure up here in Maine thats for sure. Temps today in the 90s and temps tomorrow 95+. we are looking at our first official heat wave this week with temps right up to Thursday being 90+ even at the coast!

[Dean4Storms]

I think Earl could come to a crawl in the short term.

[JPmia]

yeah that's what I'm thinking too because that high doesn't show any signs of weakening at the moment and Earl is quite well on his way toward it.