ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like its riding along 19west

[SootyTern]

LOL - it's funny one asked whether it could go further west, the other asked if it could further north...

Well...

It's just that it looks like a wall in front of Earl that will make him turn somewhere; the motion of clouds would suggest off to the NE, but if that is a ridge then he would go more west? I'm very interested in learning how to properly interpret water vapor loops.

[cwachal]

AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 175, 160, 120, 160, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,
AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 100, 100, 50, 75, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,
AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 25, 40, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,


Cat 4... with 115 knt winds..

[Dean4Storms]

Going to have to watch the progression of the dry air, if it keeps dropping southward I see no reason why Earl wouldn't ingest some and lose some intensity. It (Dry Air and Ridge) is expected to stop and begin shifting westward!!

[SoupBone]

I think Earl could come to a crawl in the short term.

If that happens it would give 97L a chance to catch up. That would certainly change things as well. I guess this is why we love the tropics...

[supercane]

Last image from St Maarten radar:

Note that the web page apparently only updates the 1-hr image loop once an hour sometime after the hour.

And from San Juan:

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree - it could slow Earl that's for sure...

P.S. My aunt lives outside Cherryfield, ME, so I'm sure she and my cousin are very interested in Earl's cone (though they are very used to 975 mb northeasters during their long winter)...

P.P.S. Perhaps the 5 p.m. TCD will discuss what we are seeing this afternoon...

[CrazyC83]

Advisory keeps it as a Cat 3 for now though.

[AdamFirst]

If Earl stays on that current heading the inner core is going to rub along the northern Puerto Rican coastline...lets hope it begins to lift out again.

[TropicalWXMA]

AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 175, 160, 120, 160, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,
AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 100, 100, 50, 75, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,
AL, 07, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 190N, 642W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 25, 40, 1010, 250, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,


Cat 4... with 115 knt winds..

Can you provide me with a link to this information? Much appreciated! I used to have the link but, have since lost it.

[TCmet]

As of 2pm local time (3pm Eastern), the government of Haiti has declared an Orange alert in advance of Hurricane Earl, and activated the national emergency preparedness plan.

http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/vigilance.php (in French)

We're working with many partners in the humanitarian community, especially those with responsibility to protect the 1.5 million people still living in informal settlements and tents. Even a heavy rainshower could be life-threatening, so we have to be extra cautious with preparedness messages and actions.

[StormGuy]

I think Earl could come to a crawl in the short term.

If that happens it would give 97L a chance to catch up. That would certainly change things as well. I guess this is why we love the tropics...

That's what the GFS has been showing all along too. Yeah, you've got to love the unpredictability of this. lol

[UpTheCreek]

Man, mother nature just can't give Haiti a break. I hope they're spared and this heads away from them.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Yes, I agree - it could slow Earl that's for sure...

P.S. My aunt lives outside Cherryfield, ME, so I'm sure she and my cousin are very interested in Earl's cone (though they are very used to 975 mb northeasters during their long winter)...

P.P.S. Perhaps the 5 p.m. TCD will discuss what we are seeing this afternoon...

lol sorry this was off topic and meant as a PM not a reply to the thread. so since I can't delete it I am just editing it out.

[jeff]

If Earl stays on that current heading the inner core is going to rub along the northern Puerto Rican coastline...lets hope it begins to lift out again.

The inner core will pass N of Puerto Rico.

[Cookie]

Man, mother nature just can't give Haiti a break. I hope they're spared and this heads away from them.

totally agree

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, Puerto Rico should be fine, it's looking better for Puerto Rico which each passing hour.

[GCANE]

55+ K-Ft cells crossing the west side of the island.

[HURAKAN]

Yea, Puerto Rico should be fine, it's looking better for Puerto Rico which each passing hour.

except for the rain, severe flooding is likely

[eastcoastFL]

when will the latest visible come out?