ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[senorpepr]

AL, 97, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 477W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 0,

Still a low, but up to 35 kt...

[Gustywind]

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 30, 2010 3:05 pm ET

ELSEWHERE

In the Central Atlantic, an area of tropical low pressure, 1050 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to organize. This system could become a tropical cyclone at any time.

[HURAKAN]

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 30, 2010 3:05 pm ET

ELSEWHERE

In the Central Atlantic, an area of tropical low pressure, 1050 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, continues to organize. This system could become a tropical cyclone at any time.

That's basically what the TWO said but the latest images doesn't show the system getting any better organized

[expat2carib]

Tomorrow Earl will eat Fiona for lunch.

[wxman57]

Tomorrow Earl will eat Fiona for lunch.

I don't think so. I think they'll stay far enough apart. Models forecast Danielle to "eat Earl for lunch" last week. That's clearly not happening.

[Gustywind]

Tomorrow Earl will eat Fiona for lunch.

I don't think so. I think they'll stay far enough apart. Models forecast Danielle to "eat Earl for lunch" last week. That's clearly not happening.

Absolutely you're 100 % right, this scenario has never pan's out.

[Weatherfreak000]

Tomorrow Earl will eat Fiona for lunch.

I don't think so. I think they'll stay far enough apart. Models forecast Danielle to "eat Earl for lunch" last week. That's clearly not happening.

The EURO and CMC seem to agree....you would think maybe the GFS is somewhat flawed out there.

[shah8]

cmc agrees with gfs since 00z today. CMC also spins up a bret style hurricane. Take it for what it's worth.

[wxman57]

Tomorrow Earl will eat Fiona for lunch.

I don't think so. I think they'll stay far enough apart. Models forecast Danielle to "eat Earl for lunch" last week. That's clearly not happening.

The EURO and CMC seem to agree....you would think maybe the GFS is somewhat flawed out there.

I'm fairly sure the Euro merged Danielle/Earl last week, too. Canadian, too, at times.

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from Jeff Masters Wunder blog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1593
97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

[expat2carib]

Very interresting discussion from Jeff Masters Wunder blog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1593
97L
The tropical wave (Invest 97L) now 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has a well-defined surface circulation and enough heavy thunderstorms to be classified as a tropical depression, if it can maintain that state for another six or so hours. Satellite loops show the surface circulation clearly, but also that heavy thunderstorm activity has been slow to build. The storm is experiencing low wind shear of less than 5 knots, and is over warm 29°C waters. The main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for shear to stay in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Tuesday, and this should allow 97L to organize into a tropical depression today or Tuesday. NHC is giving 97L a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

97L is moving quickly to the west, at about 20 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which has slowed down to 14 mph. By Tuesday night, Earl is expected to be a large and powerful major hurricane with a well-developed upper-level outflow channel heading clockwise out from Earl's center at high altitudes. These strong upper-level winds will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to 97L, and probably arrest the storm's development. The most likely scenario depicted in the computer models is for 97L to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Earl would then eventually destroy 97L through high wind shear, and by robbing the storm of its moisture. An alternative scenario is that 97L will stay far enough away from Earl that it will be able to pass through the northern Lesser Antilles islands as a tropical storm on Wednesday and Thursday, then bend northwestwards to potentially threaten the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. There is a very high degree of uncertainty on what may happen to 97L. History suggests that a storm in 97L's current location has a 25% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

OK, Earl will eat Fiona as finger-food at night time then.

[Blown Away]

The last few loops it looks like Earl has picked up a little forward speed! Keep in mind there is still over 600 miles between Earl and 97L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Gustywind]

Awaiting the Development of a New Tropical Depression By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Aug 29, 2010; 4:13 PM ETShare |
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... t-of-a.asp

The low being monitored for development is churning just east of Hurricane Earl.
The demise of Hurricane Danielle is expected within the next couple of days, which is when another low in the Atlantic is expected to develop tropically.

The area of low pressure that the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is monitoring is churning over the open waters of the Atlantic, about midway in between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Dry, dusty air from Africa has been inhibiting the low's ability to strengthen. Otherwise, the low is spinning in an environment conducive for tropical development.

The low should overcome that dry air within the next 36 hours and intensify into a tropical depression.

Soon after, the low should further strengthen into a tropical storm. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin would acquire the name "Fiona."

Computer models are hinting that the system will follow in the footsteps of Hurricane Earl, potentially passing by just north of the Leeward Islands around midweek and in between the Bahamas and Bermuda later in the week.
Where the system heads this upcoming Labor Day weekend will depend on the pace and intensity of a new cold front set to reach the Atlantic Seaboard.

Until the system develops and its exact track becomes clearer, all residents along the East Coast should closely monitor its progress.

[HURAKAN]

Seems like Kristina didn't read the TWO ... Accuweather, lol

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

Looks like we have Fiona

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972010_al082010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008301952
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 14N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

GARCIA

[Cyclone1]

Upgrade at 5?

[thetruesms]

Looks like we have Fiona

It appears that way, though it doesn't seem as slam dunk as other times - they may still end up deciding against it.

But, assuming it does get started up, now we get to see what it can do. I don't think it will be a very smooth road at all, though.

[HURAKAN]

It really surprises me.