ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I am enjoying the beauty of this storm. No guilt here even though I do pray for everyone in the path.

[eastcoastFL]

Earl is well inside the famous "box" right now.

Keep in mind the box has nothing to do with a chance to hit the coast, it's the other way around. If a storm hits Florida it almost always passes through the Hebert box.

Also you cant get insurance when there is a storm in the box.

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[HurrMark]

I spent a vacation with Ike, in Houston, back in 2008. When I flew back, on approach to T.F. Green Airport in Rhode Island, I looked down at the canopy below. You cannot see most houses from the air. Unlike flying into Houston, there are just far too many trees. In some places, entire neighborhoods cannot be see from the air. I remember, thinking about what I had just experienced with Ike, and concluded that if we were to get those kinds of sustained winds here in New England; RI, Central Ma, NE CT, with this thick green canopy, we would be in a very very bad situation. How long was Houston without power? A month to fully restore?

In MA, there can be a lot of damage from even a thunderstorm since the foliage is so dense here. Not to mention the flooding issues...we have had several big storms this year that have caused major flooding since we don't have the resources to handle such rainfall in a short amount of time...even a tropical storm could be disastrous

[hurricaneCW]

Earl is well inside the famous "box" right now.

Keep in mind the box has nothing to do with a chance to hit the coast, it's the other way around. If a storm hits Florida it almost always passes through the Hebert box.

I know that. I was just saying that the storm is in the Hebert box.

[eastcoastFL]

its gaining latitude for sure

[CrazyC83]

I spent a vacation with Ike, in Houston, back in 2008. When I flew back, on approach to T.F. Green Airport in Rhode Island, I looked down at the canopy below. You cannot see most houses from the air. Unlike flying into Houston, there are just far too many trees. In some places, entire neighborhoods cannot be see from the air. I remember, thinking about what I had just experienced with Ike, and concluded that if we were to get those kinds of sustained winds here in New England; RI, Central Ma, NE CT, with this thick green canopy, we would be in a very very bad situation. How long was Houston without power? A month to fully restore?

In MA, there can be a lot of damage from even a thunderstorm since the foliage is so dense here. Not to mention the flooding issues...we have had several big storms this year that have caused major flooding since we don't have the resources to handle such rainfall in a short amount of time...even a tropical storm could be disastrous

I don't even live in a hurricane risk area but I can totally see the foliage issue. Once I have my own house, I will be immediately investing in a generator and possibly solar panels to get off the grid. (My current rented house cannot have such due to being in a flood zone)

[Nimbus]

One thing I have noticed is that the winds on SE Fl is blowing from the east 10 to 15 mph. I am not thinking Earl is coming here but it seems like we have a stronger high over Earl

I've been watching the trough to the north of Earl in the water vapor imagery and it looks like it is still drifting east. There is a weak upper air anticyclone over the southeast so the shear is running north to south off the east coast of Florida. I'm not sure what the models do with the high? It almost looks like Earl will be too far south to get picked up by the first trough immediately to his north? Of course you can't tell exactly what is going on just looking at the water vapor imagery. Is there any chance Earl could get stalled out by that high?

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone else see the current radar? That unwrapping the west of the center, is that from the dry air?

[Frank2]

Ugh - well, let's see what the next TCD says about that dropping feature to the north of Earl, because hurricanes move around features, they don't power-ranger through them as Hollywood would like everyone to believe (lol):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

my concern is that it might force Earl southwestward, something similar to Ike's track a few years ago...

[eastcoastFL]

Ugh - well, let's see what the next TCD says about that dropping feature to the north of Earl, because hurricanes move around features, they don't power-ranger through them as Hollywood would like everyone to believe (lol):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

my concern is that it might force Earl southwestward, something similar to Ike's track a few years ago...

Thats what I was thinking, it makes sense. He has to go somewhere.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[eastcoastFL]

Wow look at that thing. its nearly perfect. Im glad we got something pretty to look at.

[tolakram]

30 Frame Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

Incredible to see the eye clear out.

[msbee]

I am enjoying the beauty of this storm. No guilt here even though I do pray for everyone in the path.

I'm NOT enjoying its beauty
I have to admit the satellite pic is gorgeous but it's a whole other thing when you have to live through it.

[tolakram]

Water Vapor loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[GCANE]

The GV flew thru the dry-slot on the south quad.

Here is a skew-t from a dropsonde sampling the air in the dry-slot.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[CrazyC83]

I am enjoying the beauty of this storm. No guilt here even though I do pray for everyone in the path.

I'm NOT enjoying its beauty
I have to admit the satellite pic is gorgeous but it's a whole other thing when you have to live through it.

Sadly that is the case At least the absolute worst of it is over water though. Keep safe!!!

[Time_Zone]

Wow Earl is a beauty!!!!!....Let's hope that it doesn't effect the US and Bermuda, so that we don't have to feel guilty for enjoying it's beauty...

Yea...who cares about us Canadians anyway....Not to mention the islands

[eastcoastFL]

I am enjoying the beauty of this storm. No guilt here even though I do pray for everyone in the path.

I'm NOT enjoying its beauty
I have to admit the satellite pic is gorgeous but it's a whole other thing when you have to live through it.

Glad to see you are doing ok.