ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Nimbus]

I'm NOT enjoying ts beauty
its a whole other thing when you have to live through it.


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We are all glad you made it through and even still have your internet!
If Earl had intensified into a cat 3 just a few hours earlier it would have been a disaster.
What are you hearing about winds and damage on St Maarten?
Luis is probably going out of his mind without power wondering if the storm is going to change course.

[CourierPR]

its gaining latitude for sure

In two previous posts you said it was riding 19 N heading west.

[eastcoastFL]

its gaining latitude for sure

In two previous posts you said it was riding 19 N heading west.

and since i have been staring at radar and it appears to be gaining latitude. Also if you look at the visible it road 19n for quite a while and recently junmped NNW My eyes are going whacky

[HURAKAN]

loop

[eastcoastFL]

loop

you can see it right there, the jump I was talking about.

[USTropics]

Systems generally do not traverse in a perfectly straight line, and "jogs" or "wobbles" encompass the overall path. Instead, an extrapolated motion is taken over a period of time (generally 3+ hours). While Earl did jog west momentarily, the overall movement has been 285 degrees, or WNW.

[cycloneye]

I am alive,safe and dry!!. Power was cut since around 10:15 AM until recently.But I can expect more power cuts tonight as the eye moves at its closest point from San Juan and tropical Storm force winds blow by then. After that big band this morning, less strong ones have moved thru but radar shows plenty of rain that will move in the next few hours. So I will be here as conditions permit to report.

[UpTheCreek]

I don't know if I'm understanding this whole setup. Is it possible that the further west Earl moves and the longer it takes to head on a northbound track, the better it might be for the east coast? In other words, the longer Earl stays south, the longer time it's easterly component will have to travel southbound and intercept Earl before he's able to get near the coast? Or something, I don't know. I can't even read that back to myself without getting further confused, so hopefully someone can figure out what I'm trying to say!

[feederband]

Systems generally do not traverse in a perfectly straight line, and "jogs" or "wobbles" encompass the overall path. Instead, an extrapolated motion is taken over a period of time (generally 3+ hours). While Earl did jog west momentarily, the overall movement has been 285 degrees, or WNW.

Yeah I keep waiting for the next stair step...Hope it is soon...

[eastcoastFL]

Good to see you are ok luis.

[UpTheCreek]

I am alive,safe and dry!!. Power was cut since around 10:15 AM until recently.But I can expect more power cuts tonight as the eye moves at its closest point from San Juan and tropical Storm force winds blow by then. After that big band this morning, less strong ones have moved thru but radar shows plenty of rain that will move in the next few hours. So I will be here as conditions permit to report.

Glad to hear you're well!

[HURAKAN]

Luis, good to hear from you! Stay safe.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am alive,safe and dry!!. Power was cut since around 10:15 AM until recently.But I can expect more power cuts tonight as the eye moves at its closest point from San Juan and tropical Storm force winds blow by then. After that big band this morning, less strong ones have moved thru but radar shows plenty of rain that will move in the next few hours. So I will be here as conditions permit to report.

Good to hear you are okay.

[gpickett00]

Systems generally do not traverse in a perfectly straight line, and "jogs" or "wobbles" encompass the overall path. Instead, an extrapolated motion is taken over a period of time (generally 3+ hours). While Earl did jog west momentarily, the overall movement has been 285 degrees, or WNW.

So true, it's easy to get caught up in looking at every single satellite refresh image and convince yourself that the system is taking a whole new direction. Then a couple images later its confirmed that the storm has been maintaining the exact direction that the models predicted

[HurrMark]

I don't know if I'm understanding this whole setup. Is it possible that the further west Earl moves and the longer it takes to head on a northbound track, the better it might be for the east coast? In other words, the longer Earl stays south, the longer time it's easterly component will have to travel southbound and intercept Earl before he's able to get near the coast? Or something, I don't know. I can't even read that back to myself without getting further confused, so hopefully someone can figure out what I'm trying to say!

It's really geography. The further west it goes, the more likely it will go south the Outer Banks, which bulges out. A more northwesterly track will take it closer to the coast. It will get shunted out by the upcoming trough, so whether it does it at 33 N or 35 N or 38 N makes a big difference in terms of who gets what.

[ColinDelia]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

For many of you wondering ...
This map has the closest distance the eye of Earl will come to many locations if it follows the exact expected track.

[UpTheCreek]

I don't know if I'm understanding this whole setup. Is it possible that the further west Earl moves and the longer it takes to head on a northbound track, the better it might be for the east coast? In other words, the longer Earl stays south, the longer time it's easterly component will have to travel southbound and intercept Earl before he's able to get near the coast? Or something, I don't know. I can't even read that back to myself without getting further confused, so hopefully someone can figure out what I'm trying to say!

It's really geography. The further west it goes, the more likely it will go south the Outer Banks, which bulges out. A more northwesterly track will take it closer to the coast. It will get shunted out by the upcoming trough, so whether it does it at 33 N or 35 N or 38 N makes a big difference in terms of who gets what.

I think I get that, but that upcoming trough will be moving S or SE. So if Earl gives it more time to get more south before getting hit by it, then Earl will be even further away from the coast when it recurves eastward. I'm probably not making myself clear because I'm not using the proper jargon.

[KBBOCA]

Question: Did Earl officially landfall anywhere in the Islands? It looked to me like the eyewall brushed Anguilla, but I'm guessing that doesn't count. What about Sombrero Island which looked to be right in the center of the eye? (That's unpopulated I believe?).

[breaking wind]

135 mph 948 mb

[bzukajo]

The 5:00 Runs came in as the WHDH met was doing a live broadcast. "is this a cat 4 just off the coast of NC!?" I think he had a pucker moment on live TV