ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Macrocane]

I would wait until the 1st advisory, I will always remember how we thought we had Ana last year and it actually was named a few days later.

[stormhunter7]

GV flew its first mission and it appears its data showed TS force winds... but NHC is making the right call waiting on good convection

[Gustywind]

SSD
30/1745 UTC 15.3N 48.1W T1.5/1.5 97L

[stormhunter7]

just saw online that someone posted

"We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from NHC, but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see. "

can anyone verify?

[duris]

just saw online that someone posted

"We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from NHC, but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see. "

can anyone verify?

Accuweather claims its officially TD8 (FWIW) http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... rms-in.asp

[westcoastfl]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972010_al082010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008301952
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

AL, 08, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 142N, 477W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

just saw online that someone posted

"We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from NHC, but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see. "

can anyone verify?

[HurrMark]

Looks like we have Eight...waiting for the official word...

EDIT: We have Fiona.

[AdamFirst]

No.

We have Fiona, check the NHC site. :p

[HurrMark]

00
WTNT23 KNHC 302039
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[thetruesms]

just saw online that someone posted

"We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from NHC, but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see. "

can anyone verify?

The ATCF renumber has been done, yes. But while it usually is followed by the initiation of advisories, NHC has backed out of it before.

Ultimately, we'll probably have TD8/Fiona shortly, but it's not a guarantee

edit - guess I should have waited 30 seconds to refresh the NHC site, amirite?

[RL3AO]

Pretty standard 1st advisory forecast for a system they're unsure about. 40kts peak intensity and slow it down day 4/5. Once they know it won't die in the next 12 hours, they'll slowly up the peak intensity each advisory.

[AdamFirst]

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

wow, lol.
Might as well keep the TS Warnings up.

[Brent]

[I-wall]

It really surprises me.

me too

[SouthFLTropics]

In regards to Fiona's future track I think we are going to hear many say that it is a recurve based on the new NHC forecast track...BUT before anyone is sold on that I think it is important to point out the significant slowdown at days 4 and 5 that is shown in the forecast. Can anyone say ridge building in? Hmmm...

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Notice the bending more to the west and really slowing down at the end of the track...

[rockyman]

a slowdown AND a slight turn to the left between Day 4 and Day 5 (compared to Day 3 to Day 4)

[caneseddy]

A little west bend there it seems like at the end

[Blown Away]

Cone farther east then I expected, but day 4-5 she hits the breaks! That is the point where some models bring Fiona back to the coast and others stall then continue the recurve. At least we have a track to follow!

[CrazyC83]

For those in the islands, don't take down your shutters or get rid of your supplies just yet!!!

Looks like the same trough that picks up Earl will carry Fiona out.