ATL: FIONA - Models

[ROCK]

it vanishes into thin air.....

[ROCK]

either it falls part....edit not GOM thats another area....this looks off the EC...

[Ivanhater]

Forgot to check the ensemble ROCK, Still a split with some members in the Gulf, others off the South Carolina coast. Still some flopping left to go on the operational run in the future...

[caneseddy]

Make that a Georgia hit continue due west inland.

Well we all know that landfall is a very very low probability, but it seems if Fiona develops she is going to be blocked per the EURO. One thing for sure if the EURO is correct with Fiona becoming an EC or GOM storm, I will become a EURO believer because most of the other models say out to sea. I guess if you can't beat the Texas EURO huggers you might as well join them!

got you a EURO seat right next to me, WX warrior and soon to be Ivan...

Will there be a seat for one more ; if the Euro nails this, I will be a believer

[Vortex]

very interesting rock...ensembles are pushing west so how far she gets north will be critical before the turn

[HurricaneBelle]

either it falls part or gets pushed into the GOM......

It's still there, just weaker, off the E coast of FL.

[Big O]

anyone have the 12Z euro ensembles..can't pull up until later.

Ensemble mean is quite interesting. At 144h, there is one low south of the Florida peninsula. At 168h, there is a kink in the isobars near the Florida/GA coast, with a more defined low pressume over the central GOM. At 192h, the low is south of the central LA coast heading WNW. Hour 216 is missing from raleighwx output.

[Ivanhater]

Actually ROCK, here is the latest ensemble run..

Florida Straits, the into the central Gulf

[Vortex]

for days now the ensembles have been clustering either side of fl..well see.

[ROCK]

Forgot to check the ensemble ROCK, Still a split with some members in the Gulf, others off the South Carolina coast. Still some flopping left to go on the operational run in the future...

yeah they cluster at the tip of FL at 144hr then its up the EC sort of....your better at looking at these than me....

[srainhoutx]

The one Ivan left out...

[SootyTern]

Lots of high pressure in that one.

[ROCK]

ok..must have got the last runs....sory guys...like I said Ivan is better at these ensembles than I am....not even closed off on the GOM so looks not to amount to much...

[Ivanhater]

ok..must have got the last runs....sory guys...like I said Ivan is better at these ensembles than I am....not even closed off on the GOM so looks not to amount to much...

The ensembles on this map are not really indicative of strength. The map shows a blend of multiple ensemble members so it gives a "blurry" reflection of the storm as it gets further in time as the ensemble members spread out. When they spread out in time it gives you that blurry reflection making it look weaker, but in reality it is not.

The operational being only one run shows a better indicator of strength.

[gatorcane]

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Right now every model but the NOGAPS and ECMWF have Fiona very weak and getting sucked up with massive EARL staying away from the United States. We did have one run of the Euro last night which showed it recurving. NOGAPS just isn't a good model for the tropics.

Right now odds are this ends up heading out to sea with Earl and staying fairly weak. Judging by the looks of Fiona this evening, seems like that could happen. Even if it ends up getting blocked by a ridge, seems that vertical shear could be an issue, as noted by the last disco.

I don't have a high level of concern about Fiona at this time.

[artist]

Great post mike as usual....What are your personal thoughts on 97?

Hi Vortex/Artist...

I will get something together tonight for the main thread, but I think the 12Z Euro's idea in terms of the synoptic pattern works...the big key is will 97L stay far enough away from Earl?

Typically, I would be looking for an upper low to develop in the area trailing Earl (where 97 is now). My guess is there is upper level convergence going on there, suppressing some of the upward motion coming from the surface. As long as 97L remains in that relative position, it's going to struggle to get deep convection going on a sustained basis...and the Euro shows this.

However, once Earl begins hauling the mail to the north, it will leave behind a better upper pattern...

So, I really don't think we will see significant intensification from 97L even if it gets an upgrade for 2 more days, but by Wednesday/Thursday it should start taking shape.

Hard to speculate on a landfall point, or even if it will be a problem for the US or others just yet, other than saying I am more concerned down the road about this system than Earl.

MW

thanks Mike, will be looking forward to your post later.

[Vortex]

off topic but has anyone taken noticed of the area sw of the cape verde islands...good inflow and very deep convection..Gaston?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I must say I am impressed and surprised at the level Big E has strengthened today. In regards to this and the development and track of Fiona flying to the west it is making it harder than a couple of days ago to look and see what might happen. Could easily see the outflow shear off of Earl tear Fiona apart over the next two days, BUT also if Fiona can survive until Earl makes the much awaited turn north think he will put the accelerator to the floor and take off leaving Fiona behind in a much better environment much like Danielle did with Earl. Now lets just say Fiona survives and Earl sticks to his forecast track. I don't think she will follow Earl out into the atlantic. I am still siding with the euro that she gets left behind under a building ridge. What happens and where she goes from there is anyones best guess right now until Earl decides what he is going to do in the next 24 hrs or so.

[blazess556]

off topic but has anyone taken noticed of the area sw of the cape verde islands...good inflow and very deep convection..Gaston?

yep thats what i was thinking. models haven't really caught on to it. probably still have to figure out what to do with earl and fiona

[artist]

look at the hook on the end of the tvcn-