Interesting blob southwest of the Cape Verde Islands

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Didn't saw that this area of disturbed weather had a topic, so I decided to start this discussion as it appears to have a decent rotation.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[Vortex]

I noticed that earlier today.. …Could this be future gaston? I haven’t checked if there is any model support yet. It does look fairly impressive at the moment.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS looks to keep it very far south and ride 10N past 40w….GFS still updating. Something to watch for sure

[srainhoutx]

PGI38L

[Vortex]

18Z GFA at H+96...

Very low latitiude


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[Sanibel]

Forget Fiona. This is the one I'd watch. It's positioned perfectly.

[artist]

it loosk a heck of alot better than Fiona!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ft.html

[Scorpion]

Wow, yes. This definitely looks like a potential player.

[artist]

they have it here -

[wxman57]

We looked at it earlier today. Has a fairly well-defined LLC. I think the NHC may be too busy to worry about something so far out to sea. Let's see if it holds together for another day or two.

[srainhoutx]

We may see Rappaport and Read writing advisories before all is said and done.

[HURAKAN]

We may see Rappaport and Read writing advisories before all is said and done.

If they need help, I'm at walking distance from the NHC!! LOL

[artist]

Is this it mentioned in the TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION-

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR 15N25W.
SAHARAN AIR SURROUNDING THE WAVE IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 9W-30W.

[TheBurn]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Does look impressive. Since Earl is taking up everyone's attention guess it thought it would quietly move through the atlantic with no fuss

Wxman, were any models showing this disturbance doing anything this week or did it slip through the cracks with all this other action? Now that it is out there are models doing anything with it?

[Brent]

We may see Rappaport and Read writing advisories before all is said and done.

This looks better than Fiona.

[HURAKAN]

no mention at 8 pm

[ColinDelia]

I think this wave will have a difficult few days.

Fiona just had to travel through a number of days of dry air, low convective potential and occasional shear over the system that now this system has to travel through. Fiona was much tighter though in that it had a rather symmetrical area of considerable vorticity to start with. This system has a very elongated, irregular and rather weak area of vorticity. This wave has more convection than Fiona had but we've seen how fleeting that has been and keeping it together through the dry air has been difficult. There is 20 knots of shear (and increasing) immediately to the west of this wave that looks like it could be there for 24 hours of travel. I'm pretty the Ocean Heat Content is nothing to write home about either. To top it off, the CAPE is forecast to be low for at least the next 72 hours.

I don't believe there is any model support either. The next system with model support comes off the coast on Sep 5th.

Despite the immediate good looks on satellite, put me in the bearish camp for at least the next 48 hours.

Current wave


"Fiona" when it came off coast.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805 PM

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 18N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE NEAR
14N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 26W-29W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SAHARAN
DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 13N HAMPERING CONVECTION.

[T'Bonz]

I think the NHC may be too busy to worry about something so far out to sea.

Pretty much what I thought. Still, it kind of snuck up on us while we were paying attention to Earl and Fiona.