ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[BigB0882]

Still looks like a west movement to me. I know, wobble watcher!!! It just hasn't appeared to take the consistent NW turn yet.

[HurrikaneBryce]

Has a Category 5 ever made landfall on the EC?

[CrazyC83]

Recon dropsonde pressure is 940mb, since it found 941 with 19 kt of wind.

[hurricaneCW]

Earl looks absolutely incredible right now and I think he has a great shot at making it to Cat 5 status. I think we'll see an EWRC tomorrow after it peaks out, it'll probably expand a bit further, weaken to a Cat 3, low end 4 and ramp up to a 140-150 mph Cat 4 E/ENE of the Bahamas.

I think Earl is the biggest threat to the east coast since Isabel nearly 7 years ago.

[CrazyC83]

Has a Category 5 ever made landfall on the EC?

Only Andrew. I doubt it could sustain Cat 5 beyond the Bahamas though, especially as it goes through ERC's.

[CrazyC83]

Earl looks absolutely incredible right now and I think he has a great shot at making it to Cat 5 status. I think we'll see an EWRC tomorrow after it peaks out, it'll probably expand a bit further, weaken to a Cat 3, low end 4 and ramp up to a 140-150 mph Cat 4 E/ENE of the Bahamas.

I think Earl is the biggest threat to the east coast since Isabel nearly 7 years ago.

For many places, this is the biggest threat since Carol in 1954 and the 1938 hurricane.

[Time_Zone]

Not to be captain obvious here, but... Remember Wilma?[/quote]

Oh yeah...Her...I'd rather not talk about her and her visit to my neck of the woods... [/quote]

Ike bombed out pretty well...what about Gustav?

[CrazyC83]

Since early morning, the pressure has fallen from 969 to 940. Not sure what the winds are now, but I would guess around 125 kt.

[hurricaneCW]

Earl looks absolutely incredible right now and I think he has a great shot at making it to Cat 5 status. I think we'll see an EWRC tomorrow after it peaks out, it'll probably expand a bit further, weaken to a Cat 3, low end 4 and ramp up to a 140-150 mph Cat 4 E/ENE of the Bahamas.

I think Earl is the biggest threat to the east coast since Isabel nearly 7 years ago.

For many places, this is the biggest threat since Carol in 1954 and the 1938 hurricane.

I was thinking for New England that it would be more in the lines of Gloria or Bob.

[Okibeach]

Thought this might help some understand the effect of the ridge better.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE ERODED FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE
SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH IMPACT HURRICANE EARL HAS ACROSS
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE WEEK

[Praxus]

Looking at the IR and the vis, it sure looks like it's steadily intensifying...

[CrazyC83]

Earl looks absolutely incredible right now and I think he has a great shot at making it to Cat 5 status. I think we'll see an EWRC tomorrow after it peaks out, it'll probably expand a bit further, weaken to a Cat 3, low end 4 and ramp up to a 140-150 mph Cat 4 E/ENE of the Bahamas.

I think Earl is the biggest threat to the east coast since Isabel nearly 7 years ago.

For many places, this is the biggest threat since Carol in 1954 and the 1938 hurricane.

I was thinking for New England that it would be more in the lines of Gloria or Bob.

We'll know over the next couple days. For the inland Mid-Atlantic (I-95 from Philly south), the threat is probably somewhat less than with Isabel as it wouldn't be coming that far inland - barring a track well outside the cone. For eastern NC and Hampton Roads, the threat is probably equal to Isabel or slightly greater as the higher intensity would counter the side of the storm.

[KBBOCA]

Going back to our earlier discussion as to whether Earl made "landfall" on Sombrero Island, I searched back earlier in the thread to find the image I was this thinking of. You can see it here.

viewtopic.php?p=2050166#p2050166

I so appreciate the helpful answers to questions from so many here.

[hurricanefloyd5]

The
track guidance has shifted noticeably westward during the first
48 hours...with the GFS and ECMWF on the eastern edge of the
envelope. The official forecast has been adjusted westward...
primarily through 72 hours...and lies between the GFS/ECMWF and the
multi-model consensus.

[BigA]

Just passing 65 west at about 19.4 north. Still moving a little to the south of WNW.

[Gustywind]

Yeah, no doubt it's well on it's way to becoming our first cat 5 hurricane since Felix back in 07....not there yet though

Should you add Dean

[Mello1]

.mil's cone has the entire eastern seaboard from north of Savannah, GA to Portland, ME, and as far east covering the eastern half of the Carolina's, most of PA and NY state and all states east of those.

I'm just wondering why the NHC's cone is narrower than the military's cone?

This storm is coming a bit too close for comfort for me.

The navy cone is the area of US Navy ship avoidance. They take the average track error and add it to the expected radii of 34 knot winds. Also, the width of their cone at 72 hours is maintained through 120 hours.

Okay, thanks! That does makes for them to do that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah, no doubt it's well on it's way to becoming our first cat 5 hurricane since Felix back in 07....not there yet though

Should you add Dean

yeah but dean occured before felix, meaning that felix was the last cat 5 to occur in the atlantic to date.

[Sanibel]

This breaks the streak of systems not fully developing in this area due to dry air and other factors.


I think BVIGal will have some stories to tell. She looks like she was in the south part of the CDO.

[I-wall]

Is there an eclipse going on right now with the GOES floater over Earl? The last few images arent there...?