ATL: FIONA - Models

[Orlando_wx]

Well the media is talking about this and they are riding along with gfs and other models in facts they said no way that it would hit the states kinda of bold statement.

[Ivanhater]

The deep bam takes it all the way to Belize

[CrazyC83]

The deep bam takes it all the way to Belize

If Earl gets away and the ridge builds in, not unreasonable at all, especially as Fiona would likely stay weak to the islands.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

365
WHXX01 KWBC 310041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL082010) 20100831 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  0000   100831  1200   100901  0000   100901  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  49.8W   15.9N  53.4W   17.6N  57.0W   19.8N  60.6W
BAMD    14.9N  49.8W   15.6N  52.9W   16.5N  56.0W   17.6N  59.2W
BAMM    14.9N  49.8W   15.6N  53.1W   16.8N  56.4W   18.5N  59.5W
LBAR    14.9N  49.8W   15.8N  53.5W   16.9N  57.2W   18.3N  60.9W
SHIP        35KTS          36KTS          39KTS          42KTS
DSHP        35KTS          36KTS          39KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  0000   100903  0000   100904  0000   100905  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.0N  63.5W   30.1N  65.9W   37.3N  62.4W   44.6N  57.7W
BAMD    19.0N  62.3W   21.4N  67.6W   21.4N  72.0W   20.3N  77.5W
BAMM    20.5N  62.3W   24.5N  65.9W   26.7N  66.2W   27.0N  66.3W
LBAR    20.1N  64.0W   24.0N  68.1W   24.2N  69.1W   21.5N  72.5W
SHIP        46KTS          45KTS          41KTS          41KTS
DSHP        46KTS          45KTS          41KTS          41KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR =  49.8W DIRCUR = 278DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  45.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  23KT
LATM24 =  14.0N LONM24 =  41.4W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  210NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Vortex]

BAMD has company as LBAR has joined in with a SW motion at the wend of run.....

[Vortex]

18Z how about this change with the statistical/dynamical models...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... t3best.gif

[Ivanhater]

Notice the TVCN model vortex. Moves SW. The NHC likes to track close to the TVCN. I would imagine a track change next package.

[Blown Away]

The TVCN has been doing that for the past few runs and I think if the 5pm NHC cone continued out beyond 120 hours we would have seen a west bend. Actually the track kinda had a subtle slow down with a ever so slight west bend. I just think the EURO, BAMD, and TVCN cannot be ignored completely.

[jlauderdal]

Notice the TVCN model vortex. Moves SW. The NHC likes to track close to the TVCN. I would imagine a track change next package.

i wonder if the models are picking up on the ridge in the wake of earl,

[Vortex]

I bet they barely move fiona from days 4-5 at 11pm given the uncertainty..If the trend continues with the euro late tonight and TCVN it wouldn't surprise me if they show a bend west at 11am tom before locking in with this scenario...She's going to take a beating it would appear tomorrow through much of wednesday but it she maintains an identity and doesn't get entrained into earls circulation she'll have an ideal environment late week/weekend...I'm 50/50 how this unfolds...

[Florida1118]

I agree . they really probably arent sure. Maybe a slight west shift.

[Blown Away]

Notice the TVCN model vortex. Moves SW. The NHC likes to track close to the TVCN. I would imagine a track change next package.

i wonder if the models are picking up on the ridge in the wake of earl,

If they would just listen to us we have been telling them all day long the ridge was going to block Fiona!! They better recognize at 11pm or we will have to sick the EURO huggers on them.

[gatorcane]

Don't expect any big shifts in the cone tonight. They very likely will wait for the 00z runs from the globals and let the late night shift decide.

[jlauderdal]

Notice the TVCN model vortex. Moves SW. The NHC likes to track close to the TVCN. I would imagine a track change next package.

i wonder if the models are picking up on the ridge in the wake of earl,

If they would just listen to us we have been telling them all day long the ridge was going to block Fiona!! They better recognize at 11pm or we will have to sick the EURO huggers on them.

if they listened to us they would verify everytime because i have seen tracks posted on here from belize to east of bermuda over the last 24H

[LowndesCoFire]

You know NHC reads this! Ever seen Avila44 logging in?? j/k

[Dean4Storms]

Unless the GFS turns out correct and Fiona gets absorbed by Earl it will have to deal with a rebuilding ridge in my opinion much like we've seen here with Earl. I think the TVCN has picked up on that.

[ROCK]

current steering for Fiona.....westward for awhile....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[StormGuy]

Checking out the latest NOGAPS, at first it looks like it's going to have Fiona follow Earl right out into the Atlantic. But, it looks like it stalls in the Atlantic on the last couple of frames while Earl keeps going.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO sends a weak Fiona out to sea.

[dexterlabio]

so no more "doomsday" forecast with fiona...at least for now? It could be that the agencies are in doubt whether fiona can grow big like danielle and earl.