ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[USTropics]

They even mention in the discussion that the surface circulation is difficult to discern. IMO, partial reasoning for making the upgrade was for the potential impact Fiona may have on the Leeward Islands, and to allow watches/warnings for those residents dealing with the aftermath of Earl.

[painkillerr]

Gentlemen:
Look at this comparison between EARL and FIONA when they were both a tropical storm.

http://a.imageshack.us/img64/483/earlvsfiona.gif

They had the same latitude
They had the same barometric pressure
They had the same wind speed

However, EARL was much farther away from the Caribbean and had to travel a very long way west to get here. (Despite the predictions to the contrary by the NHC). We obviously now know that the NHC’s forecast was wrong all along.

We are getting battered by EARL in St. Thomas. Any more wind and rain from FIONA would add insult to injury.

What are the chances for a back to back strike in our area?

Thanks!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 310006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 30/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N
48.7W...OR ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
MOVING WEST AT 21 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
NW OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 49W-53W. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA

[HURAKAN]

She's popping!

[Vortex]

I always find it fascinating how some systems can lack convection and once they hit 50W its like the light switch goes on...I've seen this so many times and notice with fiona as she's approaching 50w the convection fires...

[Gustywind]

[BigB0882]

Definitely appears to be popping convection closer to the center. Is this just D Max or will it hang on to the convection?

[Blown Away]

CROWN WEATHER'S TAKE ON FIONA: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Invest 97-L/Fiona:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become more concentrated around Invest 97-L, which is located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. I still expect this system to become a tropical depression today or Tuesday and eventually become Tropical Storm Fiona. The future for 97L/Fiona has become a lot more uncertain this morning and I think right now we need to see whether we get development into a tropical depression or tropical storm first before we can draw out a little more certain forecast track. The operational European and operational Canadian models, which yesterday, forecast a significant landfall on the US Southeast coast is now siding with the GFS model and forecasting a much weaker storm and a track that takes it out into the open Atlantic in 8 to 10 days from now. I am very skeptical with this huge shift in the forecast. Let me explain why:

The key to where this system ends up highly depends on how strong it gets. The weaker the storm the greater likelihood it tracks out into the open Atlantic. The stronger the storm, the greater chance it impacts the US mainland. The latest operational European model is significantly different in its upper air forecast. The latest forecast now thinks that the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States will dig further south and the ridge in the western Atlantic is weaker than yesterday’s forecast. It should be noted that the overall model bias, including the European model, is that they forecast too strong of a trough of low pressure in the eastern United States and that this trough may be weaker and more progressive than what is being forecast by the European model.

So, before I dramatically change my thinking on Invest 97-L/Fiona, I’d like to see more consistency in these model trends (at least 24 more hours of model runs). As I mentioned in the first paragraph, I think the model guidance will get into better agreement once this becomes a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

It should be noted that the European ensemble guidance still has a storm track that takes it near the Bahamas or south Florida. In 10 days, the ensemble model spread extends anywhere from the central Gulf of Mexico east-northeastward to off of the South Carolina coast. So, it will be interesting to see which one ends up correct in the end, the operational European or the European ensemble models.

I still think that 97L/Fiona still has the very real potential to impact the southeastern United States right around Labor Day. I will be monitoring 97L/Fiona extremely closely and I will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Tuesday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

This summary helps me understand the models, I read if Fiona gets strong then it may follow the EURO solution and if Fiona remains weak then the GFS solution will likely be correct.

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 08, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 149N, 498W, 35, 1007, TS

no change

[Gustywind]

I always find it fascinating how some systems can lack convection and once they hit 50W its like the light switch goes on...I've seen this so many times and notice with fiona as she's approaching 50w the convection fires...

Right Vortex. That's why we should always keep an eye on any system approaching the 50W. The hot ssts often allow some system to rapidly intensifie especially when you have sst's close to 31°c as those of this year near the carib islands. For example, sea surface temps are close to 30,5°C in Guadeloupe since the end of July. This season seems so versatile with my untrained eyes of amateur, and anything can happe from nothing.
Let's wait and see what could happen with Fiona especially for those who are in the islands.

[Blown Away]

00z

AL, 08, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 149N, 498W, 35, 1007, TS

no change

Amazing Fiona almost to 50W, she is flying!! Gained a little latitude.

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

delete

[Buck]

If the convection keeps popping up, maybe she can stave off the embarrassment of being downgraded after one advisory.

[TheBurn]

Fee' gaining a little lat?
-

[Evil Jeremy]

Sorry, wrong thread.

[paintplaye]

Fee' gaining a little lat?
-
http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/6236/ef1.gif

No still moving west. Convection is just bursting to the north a little more.

[fci]

If she continues at current speed (she is forecast to slow down tomorrow) and Earl at current speed; she will run into his outer bands.... C R A S H!!!!!

[abajan]

If she continues at current speed (she is forecast to slow down tomorrow) and Earl at current speed; she will run into his outer bands.... C R A S H!!!!!

Kinda reminds me of an animation I’ve seen of two spiral galaxies colliding!
I really can’t see Fiona getting very strong with all that outflow from Earl so nearby. I don’t think it will become a hurricane at any point in its lifetime but as we all know too well, things can change quickly.

[blazess556]

i know its the nam but it strengthens fiona a lot more on the 00z run tonight. maybe it got more data from the planes?