ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Florida1118]

It's trending West...I'm getting concerned about the East Coast. This could trigger a completely massive evacuation. If this thing heads to NYC...you are looking at a huge evacuation.

They would try to evac. but many people according to EMC are unprepared and really dont know much about the tropics. But at Cat. 1-2 it would be pretty bad up in NYC. I dont think it would surpass andrew or Katrina but people would make a big deal about Earl.

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 07, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 196N, 652W, 115, 938, HU

[SouthFLTropics]

I've got news for everyone...The trough better get over this way and I'm talking quick like if it is going to save the East Coast. Right now here in Port St. Lucie the high pressure is large and in charge and the wind is out of the ENE at about 15mph.

SFT

[Julanne]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

[BigB0882]

Hurricane Earl 8:00pm position. Map courtesy http://www.BoatUS.com

Classic stair stepping. Hopefully it takes off more N soon. Every jog W is a higher threat to the East Coast.

[george_r_1961]

Speaking of evacuation im making the decision tommorow. If the models keep pushing west theres no way in hell im gonna ride this one out in a mobile home.

[angelwing]

Oh boy, I do not have pleasant thoughts here...we are packing to move, gonna tell the hubby to unpack the oil lamps, etc, sigh

[neospaceblue]

It's trending West...I'm getting concerned about the East Coast. This could trigger a completely massive evacuation. If this thing heads to NYC...you are looking at a huge evacuation.

I'm starting to get a little queasy.

Same here. I don't know if I'm going to be able to sleep tonght.

[greels]

Two years ago, just around this time, we were getting prepared for Hanna (Cat1) since we were living in the Turks & Caicos. Several days later, we got hit with Ike as a Cat 4.

Now, having relocated back to the States and living on the cusp of Cape Cod, it's almost like "Groundhog Day".

Thoughts and prayers to all in Earl's path (especially those in the Islands) and those who are understandably, knuckle wrenching with the days ahead of uncertainty.....

[Sean in New Orleans]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

I wouldn't be nervous. With that said, this is a very powerful storm and it is not forecasted to weaken that much according to forecasts. Truthfully, if I was you, I'd probably go buy batteries, water, and some basic hurricane supplies...but, hey, I'm always one to beat the rush when it comes to hurricanes. Watch the 11:00 forecast...if it continues this trend, I'd buy these things in the morning just to be prepared. It won't hurt.

[cpdaman]

I've got news for everyone...The trough better get over this way and I'm talking quick like if it is going to save the East Coast. Right now here in Port St. Lucie the high pressure is large and in charge and the wind is out of the ENE at about 15mph.

SFT

do any promets consider this a threat to florida......or i haven't looked at any ensembles....but i wasn't aware of any of them showing a hit to fl....it seems like it would be awfully tuff for this to bypass all the models.

[UpTheCreek]

Did I miss something tonight? What's all this talk about models pushing to the west?

[rosethornil]

I'm in Norfolk, Virginia and year after year (after year), we're told that we're going to get hit with Hurricanes. The last really, really bad storm to hit us (IMHO) was the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. There are no words to describe the build up that this area has seen since 1962, and most of it is pretty shabby construction. (I'm an architectural historian.)

My question is, I'd like to hear opinions as to whether or not y'all think this one might be headed our way? Heretofore, most storms hit the outer banks and bounce out to sea.

Any guesses when Hurricane Earl might hit the East Coast - and when?

Rose Thornton
Norfolk, VA

[Florida1118]

Hopefully for all of those on the EC, such as NC, and Virginia Earl will be down to Cat. 3 or 2, and stay of off of land. As I imagine there are lots of old trees that are just waiting to be blown down...Best of luck

[Stephanie]

It's trending West...I'm getting concerned about the East Coast. This could trigger a completely massive evacuation. If this thing heads to NYC...you are looking at a huge evacuation.

They would try to evac. but many people according to EMC are unprepared and really dont know much about the tropics. But at Cat. 1-2 it would be pretty bad up in NYC. I dont think it would surpass andrew or Katrina but people would make a big deal about Earl.

The building codes aren't anywhere NEAR what you have down there for hurricanes in some areas. The population itself hasn't been through anything quite as severe in decades. The homes around the shorelines are not on stilts. The bridges in NYC can only hold so many cars/buses/trucks at once. We're talking millions of more people than what's down in the NO area and that was horrible enough and NO was on the west side of the storm. Storm surge, anyone??

[SouthFLTropics]

I've got news for everyone...The trough better get over this way and I'm talking quick like if it is going to save the East Coast. Right now here in Port St. Lucie the high pressure is large and in charge and the wind is out of the ENE at about 15mph.

SFT

do any promets consider this a threat to florida......or i haven't looked at any ensembles....but i wasn't aware of any of them showing a hit to fl....it seems like it would be awfully tuff for this to bypass all the models.

For the record I was not trying to project that I thought that Earl is a threat to the peninsula. Just the fact that the high pressure is showing it's strength right now...

SFT

[ozonepete]

Is that shear related to Earl's outflow? Otherwise there could be serious weakening once up around 25N.

Hi CrazyC83,
That shear isn't related to Earl's outflow. Remember that the CIMSS chart you showed is shear TREND over the PRIOR 24 hours. Here is a GFS forecast chart for shear on Wednesday evening. Most of the other models, as well as the GFS, are forecasting the shear to lessen ahead of Earl as it moves northwestward. So the shear that could have helped weaken it is forecast to relax and move northward before it can affect Earl.

(The blue areas are shear blowing fromt the east. The red areas are westerly shear blowing from the west.)

[Weather Watcher]

Can catch both storms in this funktop loop, pretty amazing sight!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ft.html

Wow. It's looks to be something behind 97L ...

sure does... is there another thread on this?

[wxman57]

As of 5PM CDT, the SEF/ERC probability model is now estimating an 82% chance of at least one event in the next 12 hours, and a 100% chance in the next 36 hours. The model suggests the potential for repeated ERCs in the next 2 days.

So I wouldn't joke too much about noticing an ERC in progress. It is in progress.

[Malcome]

Hm. Looks like it could be down to a cat 1 by the time it gets to Nova Scotia. At least I hope.