ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Florida1118]

I am here in Cape Cod Massachusetts. Been lurking and watching you guys and your observations all day. Your posts are very much appreciated. Should we be getting nervous up here? What are your thoughts on a direct hit for Cape Cod?

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.

Marstons Mills here. I know the Dennis/Dennsport area. Hey, thanks for all the good advice. It is appreciated. I worry that so many of us up here are not prepared as it has been generations since we really got hit hard (Hurricane Bob and our "no name" storm of the 80's but they weren't the Duke of Earl). I will shop tomorrow and be ready. If it doesn't hit, great, if it does, I'll be ready. Lots of boarding and taping to do. Ugh. Gonna be a rough 48 hours.....

Taping something other than windows I hope!

[jinftl]

We don't see storms this symmetric and....dare i say it....dangerously beautiful...too frequently. Is there any shear whatsoever impacting it? Textbook look to it....wow

Just imagine if this beast was 125 miles south of where it is right now....and was moving wnw.

[invest man]

can someone tell us where the trough is at the moment that is suppose to push it away from e nc?

[Weather Watcher]

Has anyone heard from cyclone eye?

[SunnyThoughts]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

Crazy yes, and when it comes to hurricanes, you can't very well wait until the LAST minute to leave, so IF during the next couple of days, the models still show Earl turning RIGHT as it approaches the coastline, makes it tough for everyone involved with their decision making in terms of staying..or leaving. Good luck everybody and stay safe!

[Julanne]

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.[/quote]

Marstons Mills here. I know the Dennis/Dennsport area. Hey, thanks for all the good advice. It is appreciated. I worry that so many of us up here are not prepared as it has been generations since we really got hit hard (Hurricane Bob and our "no name" storm of the 80's but they weren't the Duke of Earl). I will shop tomorrow and be ready. If it doesn't hit, great, if it does, I'll be ready. Lots of boarding and taping to do. Ugh. Gonna be a rough 48 hours.....[/quote]
Taping something other than windows I hope![/quote]

ummmm... No I was referring to windows. By your tone, I better switch forums and read the hurricane preparedness tips

[Stephanie]

I just went and looked a bit closer at the GFS, it actually takes the 2nd trough to recurve Earl. The first one swings out of the Great Lakes and then another trough comes down from Canada and into the upper Plains turns around and lifts out through the Great Lakes and it is this trough that recurves Earl. There are many pucker factors for this one to happen and miss the East Coast I'm afraid!!!!!

The tone of your post and the fact it is coming from you, is not making me feel very comfortable.

[HURAKAN]

Has anyone heard from cyclone eye?

He wrote a few hours ago and said he was fine but was expecting to have no power tonight, that's probably he's not here

[Stephanie]

Has anyone heard from cyclone eye?

Yes, and msbee. They posted in the thread for those that are being affected.

[Weather Watcher]

Has anyone heard from cyclone eye?

He wrote a few hours ago and said he was fine but was expecting to have no power tonight, that's probably he's not here

Thank You HURAKAN,

I was worried about him.

[RL3AO]

can someone tell us where the trough is at the moment that is suppose to push it away from e nc?

There is a trough over the Montana area right now, but it looks like the energy thats going to curve Earl is near Anchorage right now, at least after looking at the GFS.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's steady moving WNW...I've been waiting for a turn to the NW all day. Don't see it yet, I'm afraid.

[angelwing]

This is going to be a hell of a way to find out if that house that I am buying will sustain storm/flood damage, sheesh..on another note we had really bad rain last week and the next door neighor's storage bin got flooded out and we were dry, maybe our luck will continue.

[Florida1118]

It's steady moving WNW...I've been waiting for a turn to the NW all day. Don't see it yet, I'm afraid.

The NHC track still indicates a NW turn that hasn't happened yet...Im sure it will shortly though. I hope.

[gatorcane]

the posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Folks really think this misses the united states enough for the hurricane-force winds to stay offshore, probably the tropical storm force winds as well. I just don't see any of the doom and gloom I keep reading. Notice the 00z tropicals. They are now well offshore the outer banks of north Carolina.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I watch the long range radar...it's better to watch direction here, for me, at least..... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

[Florida1118]

I watch the long range radar...it's better to watch direction here, for me, at least..... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

Looks Due west

[HurrMark]

I just went and looked a bit closer at the GFS, it actually takes the 2nd trough to recurve Earl. The first one swings out of the Great Lakes and then another trough comes down from Canada and into the upper Plains turns around and lifts out through the Great Lakes and it is this trough that recurves Earl. There are many pucker factors for this one to happen and miss the East Coast I'm afraid!!!!!

Maybe, but the storm is already getting shunted out by the first trough that the second trough simply gives it another kick.

[Weather Watcher]

This is quoted from Fox news...

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Earl, which formed on Sunday, was already a major hurricane and it was likely to keep gaining force.

"Interests from North Carolina all the way to Maine should keep an eye on the system," said Jessica Schauer, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center.


http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2010/08/ ... latestnews

[LowndesCoFire]

I watch the long range radar...it's better to watch direction here, for me, at least..... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

Looks Due west

I was about to post the same thing, but of course, if we watch every second it will be W, WNW, NW every other time we look at it..better to look at the grand scheme of things over the last 12 hours or so.