ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it. There have been dozens of threats in the past and very few have actually materialized. I also doubt it will be as strong as they forecast it to be once it nears the east coast. Probably a Cat 2 at most near N.C. due to decreasing water temperatures and increasing shear/dry air. Remember what happened to Cat 5 Isabel as it was getting close to the east coast.

I think the real danger will be the high surf and rip currents that are timing in with the busiest beach weekend of the season. There will be 1,000s of rip current rescues associated with Earl. I believe Friday will be a partly cloudy day up here with a 15 mph breeze. Please don't criticize me, it's just my opinion and what I believe will happen. I think Earl is going through an EWRC right now, we'll probably see more evidence of that tomorrow. The wind field could expand further so I agree on the advisories for parts of the Bahamas.

Earl is definitely moving more to the NW now, another indication of a non landfall type of track. This is all just my opinion. I don't want anyone to be hit by this, Earl was a fun storm to track but once it started impacting the islands, it became more dangerous. Unfortunately, the danger isn't over and I fear parts of Canada could suffer some severe impacts from Earl.

[HurrMark]

Keep this in mind...the storm's intensity is the rotational PLUS translational speed. So say you have a situation with Earl having maximum sustained winds of 100 mph at its closest approach to the Cape, with it moving 30 mph. The 100 mph winds are only in the northeast quadrant, where there is nothing but fish. The western half, which is where all the land is, will only experience winds of 40 mph (since you have to subtract 30 mph on that side...unlike the eastern side where you add 30 mph).

[supercane]

Latest San Juan radar from the Earl floater page by senorpepr:

[invest man]

can someone tell us where the trough is at the moment that is suppose to push it away from e nc?

There is a trough over the Montana area right now, but it looks like the energy thats going to curve Earl is near Anchorage right now, at least after looking at the GFS.

Thanks for the insight, but does it now really all depends on timing?

[Weather Watcher]

Even though I believe in prayer it is still better to be prepared and to be safe then to write it off.

God wants us to be smart and prepare.

Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days.

[paintplaye]

I watch the long range radar...it's better to watch direction here, for me, at least..... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... A&loop=yes

Looks Due west

I was about to post the same thing, but of course, if we watch every second it will be W, WNW, NW every other time we look at it..better to look at the grand scheme of things over the last 12 hours or so.

Earl like many major hurricanes really "ride" the ridge and due to the ridge not being completely smooth most of the time the storm will move west for a couple of frames and then almost due north and repeat this process. Trust me if you keep on watching each turn it will kill you.

[setxsunshine]

Now that I'm looking at the models, I myself am starting to wonder more if this has the potential of a direct hit on the USA. You see the turn to the right just as it approaches the US Coast. Can you imagine how crazy this board is going to be the day before, wondering, "Is it going to turn"?

Hello everyone...I've been lurking for a while but wanted to respond to this thought 'Is it going to turn'.
I see some tell others not to worry, trust the forcasts that say it will turn, etc.
BUT, seeing that monster keep tracking toward you, it is very difficult to NOT worry.
After experiencing Rita and Ike, I totally understand the worry and uncertainty of whether it will actually turn or not. I remember specifically our very experienced local met saying that Ike would NOT enter the gulf and not be a threat to our area. Unfortunately, he was wrong.
That is not disrespect to any professional met. I greatly appreciate the work they do. They work with the models and info they have. My point is, that sometimes the models and info they work with get it wrong. I would not like the job of deciding if an evacuation should be called or not, so I respect those in authority that have to make those decisions.
I'm not trying to spread doom and gloom. I listen to our local mets, value their advice, but Ike taught me that, until I see it curve or turn with my own eyes, I'm not going to put total trust in a model run. Too many things can change at any given time. Like one of our local mets says when asked where will it make landfall...'when it makes landfall, we'll know'.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Eeeh, I think he's at WNW, but, certainly not NW....I'm very curious to see model runs now...Earl continues to go West of the forecasts from both humans and computers.

[Florida1118]

Looks on track according to this...Very strong

[ozonepete]

Just because Earl is trending left doesnt mean it will continue and even now IF Earl goes down the center of the cone, their should only be tropical storm force winds near the outer banks of NC. I"m really pulling for this trough to make it presence known and kick this bad boy out to sea. That being said, I was in Jeanne and Charlie when they were tropical storms in central fl and I gotta tell ya 50mph sustained winds with gusts to 60 for a half hour was enough to scare the crap out of me.

We have to pray that the trough does what you say. Remember Jesus calmed the sea for His disciples. He can do it again!

Way off topic.

[T'Bonz]

Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days.

Agnes. I lived in Pittsburgh too at that time, was a teen and remember it well.

[pimentel2]

I won't be surprised if this intensifies even more. Lets just hope it weakens a bit before it speeds towards New England -_-

[ozonepete]

Even though I believe in prayer it is still better to be prepared and to be safe then to write it off.

God wants us to be smart and prepare.

Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days.

Please!

[paintplaye]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it. There have been dozens of threats in the past and very few have actually materialized. I also doubt it will be as strong as they forecast it to be once it nears the east coast. Probably a Cat 2 at most near N.C. due to decreasing water temperatures and increasing shear/dry air. Remember what happened to Cat 5 Isabel as it was getting close to the east coast.

I think the real danger will be the high surf and rip currents that are timing in with the busiest beach weekend of the season. There will be 1,000s of rip current rescues associated with Earl. I believe Friday will be a partly cloudy day up here with a 15 mph breeze. Please don't criticize me, it's just my opinion and what I believe will happen. I think Earl is going through an EWRC right now, we'll probably see more evidence of that tomorrow. The wind field could expand further so I agree on the advisories for parts of the Bahamas.

Earl is definitely moving more to the NW now, another indication of a non landfall type of track. This is all just my opinion. I don't want anyone to be hit by this, Earl was a fun storm to track but once it started impacting the islands, it became more dangerous. Unfortunately, the danger isn't over and I fear parts of Canada could suffer some severe impacts from Earl.

I think this statement is foolish. People are not panicking but just getting prepared and too say everyone will look silly when this passes 100 miles east of the coast is not the mindset you want the east coast to be in. It may very well not hit the coast but too be that confident is foolish and potentially deadly.

As for the NW movement I don't know what you are seeing but it is still on a WNW track or a little above that.

[angelwing]

Even though I believe in prayer it is still better to be prepared and to be safe then to write it off.

God wants us to be smart and prepare.

Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days.

Hurricane Agnes....I remember the flooding then too!

[bzukajo]

What part of the Cape? I grew up on Lower County Rd.

I would say yes at this point. I think these latest runs call for us in southern NE to prepare. Four days out from Ike we stocked up on water and non perishables. Back then it was a "chance" landfall near Houston. Many thought it would be Luisiana at that time. We were lucky we did. Not so much for us, but we had many many friends who needed what we had stockpiled. For them it was either walking to Reliant or Rice Stadium for emergency food supplies, or come to our place for food, shower, and unfiltered sake . The later was far better. Either way your covered if you prepare now. You will also avoid the panic shopping. In Houston, I could not find one bag of chips ANYWHERE the day before Ike arrived.

Please stay safe. If this thing tags Cape Hatteras, I think the Cape, RI, Central MA and eastern CT will all be panic shopping.

Marstons Mills here. I know the Dennis/Dennsport area. Hey, thanks for all the good advice. It is appreciated. I worry that so many of us up here are not prepared as it has been generations since we really got hit hard (Hurricane Bob and our "no name" storm of the 80's but they weren't the Duke of Earl). I will shop tomorrow and be ready. If it doesn't hit, great, if it does, I'll be ready. Lots of boarding and taping to do. Ugh. Gonna be a rough 48 hours.....

Maybe not boarding right now, but having the boards to board with yes. Thats the point. Being prepared is not panicking. Being prepared, is being prepared.

Here is a good story.

Ike arrived on the 12/13 of September. My princess's birthday is on the 14th. The only resturaunt we found open on her birthday was a place called Shanghai River. Days before, they had frozen hundreds of their most popular meals and made sure they had a generator. They were, as far as we could tell, the only place serving food and drinks the day after the storm. To be honest the food was not that great, and it was far too expensive. But it was the best worst tasting expensive meals I have ever purchased .......Shanghai River made a killing! But my princess had a wonderful birthday dinner.

[Steve]

>>I just don't see any of the doom and gloom I keep reading.

I don't necessarily disagree with you. But then again, you didn't see a storm season in '05 or '08 after the first cool fronts came through before Katrina and Rita then Gustav and Ike respectively .

As for Dean's point, the 5:00pm Discussion on Early clearly states:

THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

So it's not really supposed to do anything funky NW for a day or so.

[Raebie]

"Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days."

40 days and nights?

[Weather Watcher]

Although I am praying for the east coast. I lived in Pittsburgh when a TS, I forget which one, in around 1972, brought floods to our area and it rained heavy for days.

Agnes. I lived in Pittsburgh too at that time, was a teen and remember it well.

Thanks,

I remember not being able to play for days. And they showed the lights surrounding 3 rivers stadium under water with their tops only showing.

[UpTheCreek]

This whole panic trip is completely unnecessary. It's going to look silly when Earl passes 100 miles east of the Outer Banks. I guess I just don't buy it. There have been dozens of threats in the past and very few have actually materialized. I also doubt it will be as strong as they forecast it to be once it nears the east coast. Probably a Cat 2 at most near N.C. due to decreasing water temperatures and increasing shear/dry air. Remember what happened to Cat 5 Isabel as it was getting close to the east coast.

I think the real danger will be the high surf and rip currents that are timing in with the busiest beach weekend of the season. There will be 1,000s of rip current rescues associated with Earl. I believe Friday will be a partly cloudy day up here with a 15 mph breeze. Please don't criticize me, it's just my opinion and what I believe will happen. I think Earl is going through an EWRC right now, we'll probably see more evidence of that tomorrow. The wind field could expand further so I agree on the advisories for parts of the Bahamas.

Earl is definitely moving more to the NW now, another indication of a non landfall type of track. This is all just my opinion. I don't want anyone to be hit by this, Earl was a fun storm to track but once it started impacting the islands, it became more dangerous. Unfortunately, the danger isn't over and I fear parts of Canada could suffer some severe impacts from Earl.

I live in a vulnerable place, but I completely agree with your sentiments. I expect this storm to do just what the NHC has forecasted it to do, except perhaps be a tad weaker once it's up near us in NC. (as I tap on my wood desk ever so gently).....