ATL: EARL - Models

[vacanechaser]

Does the Eye actually go across Hatteras, or just clip it? Wondering 'cause I honestly can't tell in that image, looks like maybe a clip to me...

its a clip to the east... western eyewall right over the island and some of the clear eye, but not a true center fix on land.... i am thinking this is strting to look like alex to me from 2004.... except possibly stronger...

joe seems to think that the gfs may be trying to hand it off and not phase with the trough... certainly it is possible for the phase because it is gonna be one strong hurricane... something to consider..

i said this might be the path it takes a few nights ago... of course not set in stone, but in a way, nice to see some support... lol.. baaaaad for folks in the outer banx and northeast...

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Model consensus continues to show Earl passing east of the united states. At this point will go with that as a forecast with a brush along the outer banks of north Carolina. More than likely the hurricane-force winds should stay offshore as those winds are typically on the east side. One thing to also keep in mind when wobble watching: Even if it wobbles some more west should just mean a sharper angle of curvature to the northeast as it interacts with the great lakes trough.

[shah8]

vacanechaser, I don't understand the distinction between hand-off and phase in the context of the trough. Are you saying that the hurricane might go left into the trough or something?

[Ivanhater]

Model Guidance is west of the NHC track and current movement is west of that. Look for another shift west next package

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater a west shift for the first 72 hours maybe but no change or a slight right shift after that which would not change the cone much for potential landfalling areas. In other words more of a bend to the northeast.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater a west shift for the first 72 hours maybe but no change or a slight right shift after that which he not change the cone much for potential landfalling areas. In other words more of a bend to the northeast.

Not necessarily. Almost impossible to tell exactly what angle of recurvature will be in this time frame. Model consensus has spread out compared to the 12z package with some models now showing a U.S landfall because of the prolonged WNW motion.

[cpdaman]

Ivanhater a west shift for the first 72 hours maybe but no change or a slight right shift after that which would not change the cone much for potential landfalling areas. In other words more of a bend to the northeast.

i think a left shift for the first 72 hours ....is surely something outer bankers don't want to see.....he is not forecast to bend NNE till he just gets just below the outer banks latitude....are u telling me that if you saw this monster shifting west from your house in the outer banks ....you would say this left shift = more of a bend to the NE?....p.s i like your posts but think this is more of an issue than your post suggests...this is a big issue for NC....perhaps not NE ? IMO

and as ivan hater's model shows ....a general shift west for those in NC

heck this even has my attention if i was in FL....now it's a very low shot there...but with the high and steady ENE winds blowin over the state....i wouldn't like a monster storm...that is hesitant to shift NW ....edging closer...granted the last shift took the storm from passing east of WPB, fl by 475 miles down to about 400 per that map... so about 75 miles west in one update just eyeballing the consensus track's longitude and wpb's latitude.

[gatorcane]

Ivanhater, nice animated graphic by the way

[HurrMark]

Ivanhater a west shift for the first 72 hours maybe but no change or a slight right shift after that which he not change the cone much for potential landfalling areas. In other words more of a bend to the northeast.

Not necessarily. Almost impossible to tell exactly what angle of recurvature will be in this time frame. Model consensus has spread out compared to the 12z package with some models now showing a U.S landfall because of the prolonged WNW motion.

I only see one inland in SNE....the others are still offshore...and none are still making landfall in NC.

Keep in mind that because of the bulging of NC, the WNW movement might be a saving grace for that area since it could hit its longitude of recurvature at a lower latitude than Cape Hatteras.

[plasticup]

I only see one inland in SNE....the others are still offshore...and none are still making landfall in NC.

But remember the old maxim, "the trend is your friend."

Continued trends in forecast changes tend to represent the presence of an unrecognized variable. This is true of everything, not just meteorology.

[Steve]

GFS only out to 24 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[ROCK]

better start heading more NW if it wants to verify that position...

[Weatherfreak000]

^^


Already hate the GFS. It just doesnt feel like Earl is at all behaving like the GFS sees it in the shortrange.


This is where EURO excels however.

[SouthFLTropics]

better start heading more NW if it wants to verify that position...

I still think the GFS is fouled up from the upgrade it got...It needs some tweeking!

SFT

[ROCK]

you can see the trof moving through the great lakes at 30hr

[Steve]

Through 36 it still has a wnw heading.

[ROCK]

yeah..it killed Fiona......at 42hr its already lifting out it seems on a NW heading.....trof about to swing through....but doesnt look all that stout if you ask me.....

[ROCK]

Through 36 it still has a wnw heading.

looks more like NW to me Steve...hard to tell...shouldnt be going NW though with the high parked above it...

[Weatherfreak000]

Through 36 it still has a wnw heading.

looks more like NW to me Steve...hard to tell...shouldnt be going NW though with the high parked above it...

The short term motion just altogether appears off right from the start I would say. We may need the other models to come in and verify these ideas GFS has in the short term.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have alot of confidence in the NHC's ability to forecast a storm but is it possible that the models are underestimating the strength of the ridge...

We have seen it before back in 2008 with Ike...

Just a thought

SFT