ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

it is very much the beginnings of a eyewall cycle..

[quaqualita]

mostly a lurker here. We live on the north coast of the Dominican Republic. The 'how close can it get' tool at stormcarib.com keeps Earl in a fairly safe 180mi distance from us (closest point tomorrow around 5pm), we are not in the NHC forecast cone, we are no under TS warning or watch, no advisories mention the Dominican Republic, nobody here is expecting more than a rainy day tomorrow and maybe some light TS winds. But this 'west wobble' Earl is doing in the last 3 hrs or so starts to make us a bit worried here!
Check out http://www.drsol.info/weatherlab/drsol- ... -radar.php (best go to the 4km view).

Any ideas when it will start going more to the north again? at the moment this doesn't look any near like a 300 movement to me, I hope I'm wrong?

[fox]

Hey everyone,

I live in St. John's, Newfoundland and am travailing to Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday Morning. Do you think Earl will cause any real problems in Nova Scotia. I was there for Jaun and it was hell. Hoping to not run into this again...

Thanks

If you didn't like what Juan did, I'd stay away. This one looks like it could be just as bad. The NHC track calls for Earl to make landfall near Halifax, and the NHC is rather good track wise imo.

Im not really all that educated in Hurricanes but if I remember correctly Jaun was a cat 2... wouldnt the colder waters up here weaken Earl possibly?

Thanks

[Luc56]

Hey everyone,

I live in St. John's, Newfoundland and am travailing to Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday Morning. Do you think Earl will cause any real problems in Nova Scotia. I was there for Jaun and it was hell. Hoping to not run into this again...

Thanks

If you didn't like what Juan did, I'd stay away. This one looks like it could be just as bad. The NHC track calls for Earl to make landfall near Halifax, and the NHC is rather good track wise imo.

Juan was pretty bad, hit as a category 2 that caught everyone here off guard in a major way. This one looks like it would be category 1 by the time it makes it up here, though I realise no one knows how strong it will be just yet. Hoping that it will veer to the east of Nova Scotia and make its noise out there.

[BigA]

Im not really all that educated in Hurricanes but if I remember correctly Jaun was a cat 2... wouldnt the colder waters up here weaken Earl possibly?

Thanks

Certainly Earl will weaken by the time it gets up to a Canadian latitude, but ANY hurricane is a dangerous weather event. Halifax could be in the core of the storm, a dangerous situation.

[fox]

Im not really all that educated in Hurricanes but if I remember correctly Jaun was a cat 2... wouldnt the colder waters up here weaken Earl possibly?

Thanks

Certainly Earl will weaken by the time it gets up to a Canadian latitude, but ANY hurricane is a dangerous weather event. Halifax could be in the core of the storm, a dangerous situation.

Then I don't think my flight will even make it out of St. John's lol

[StormGuy]

it is very much the beginnings of a eyewall cycle..

I just looked at the latest satellite image and I'd have to agree. The eye looks a little jagged in the northwest side.

[UpTheCreek]

When that eyewall is separated, it can collapse and that's when an eyewall replacement cycle can occur?

[StormGuy]

Looks like he's jogging back to the NNW again after that last wobble. He keeps climbing the stairs.

[gpickett00]

I'm looking at my GR Level3 software from the Puerto Rico radar site and from 7:09 to 8:45 earl has moved 24nm @ 303 degrees which is a little bit west of NW if I am doing this right. From what I've read, movement can't be perfectly tracked by radar but it's the best I've got for now. Does this seem accurate? I placed a marker at the center of the eye at 7:09 p.m. and then put my mouse in the center at 8:45 and it showed 307 degrees. I'd like to know someones opinion who is more experienced. Thanks!

i def...believe that is at least 300 over the last 90 minutes.....please post again around 10 and let us know if it's a consistent movement

So, over the last few hours I kept that same place marker that I put in the center of the eye at 7:09. As of 10:41 it had moved 49.1 nm from the 7:09pm position @ 292 degrees. However between 9:05pm and 10:41pm it has been traveling at 282 degrees, barely any northerly component to its track.

34.3 nm @ 286 degrees between 9:05pm and 12:12am. It's awesome to be able to monitor a Cat 4 on a radar like this. It won't be on radar too much longer though.

[ROCK]

boy that Nexrad loop shows more west than N currently.....

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hey everyone,

I live in St. John's, Newfoundland and am travailing to Halifax, Nova Scotia Saturday Morning. Do you think Earl will cause any real problems in Nova Scotia. I was there for Jaun and it was hell. Hoping to not run into this again...

Thanks

If you didn't like what Juan did, I'd stay away. This one looks like it could be just as bad. The NHC track calls for Earl to make landfall near Halifax, and the NHC is rather good track wise imo.

Juan was pretty bad, hit as a category 2 that caught everyone here off guard in a major way. This one looks like it would be category 1 by the time it makes it up here, though I realise no one knows how strong it will be just yet. Hoping that it will veer to the east of Nova Scotia and make its noise out there.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It could easily still be a cat 2 when it makes landfall there imo. Another thing to consider Juan was a very small storm, Earl isn't so hurricane force winds (especially guts) could be spread over a much greater area (i.e. nearly all of Nova Scotia).

[Aric Dunn]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

think this could move near/over the Bahama's the way this thing is moving????????????

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

Psst don't tell some of the Media that.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

Aric, what do you think is going to happen?

EDIT: Wow Aric, your post just set off a chain lol.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

Aric, what do you think is going to happen?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[BigB0882]

Aric, thank you for your posts. I always carefully read your posts and I find your confusion with this storm very telling. It will be interesting to see where this is at in 24 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

I have been saying it for a couple days... but something just does not seem right with the forecast... I have been struggling to justify the trough picking it up with such a strong ridge to the NW. it is clearly between the two in some sense and when it comes down to it this system is stair stepping more than normal. It is clearly being pulled by both the trough and the ridge from the current steering it seems the weakness is less prevalent.. I am actually just waiting to see what happens ... because im really missing something for once.. its not as clear cut as usual..lol anyway..

think this could move near/over the Bahama's the way this thing is moving????????????

the far SE bahamas at least with current track will see some rain and winds.. but depending on what happens they could get more.. the 00z nogaps is way west and has it very near the bahamas..

[Ivanhater]

Still south and west of almost all model guidance