ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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#2701 Postby breaking wind » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:21 am

This shows pretty much due west the past two hours. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/windFi ... storm=Earl
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#2702 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:23 am

well off to bed... hopefully tomorrow its will start doing what its supposed to ... other wise I have a long post to write.. lol
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2703 Postby StormGuy » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:26 am

Does it have to be over a 3 hour period since they normally have their updates every 3 hours? I know one thing, Earl is going to have to start turning more NW real soon to hit their forecast spot of 8AM. Maybe he will. We'll see.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2704 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:26 am

StormGuy wrote:Does it have to be over a 3 hour period since they normally have their updates every 3 hours? I know one thing, Earl is going to have to start turning more NW real soon to hit their forecast spot of 8AM. Maybe he will. We'll see.

6 hours.
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#2705 Postby breaking wind » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:26 am

Earl can't gain latitude fast enough for those in Puerto Rico. It continues to be one insanely windy night across that country.
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#2706 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:26 am

Yeah, I think that although it has been pretty much due W the last 2 hours the NHC is confident in an overall WNW motion and that seems to be back underway recently, but will that finally continue or will we see more W wobbles in Earl's future? This stair stepping seems to be going on for longer than I remember with other storms.
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#2707 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:26 am

Wow continuing to deepen. 931
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#2708 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:27 am

The pressure and winds seem to remind me somewhat of Hurricane Gloria, which was 919mb yet only had winds supporting 115 kt...it was also a Cat 2 at landfall with a 942mb pressure...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim11.gif
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#2709 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well off to bed... hopefully tomorrow its will start doing what its supposed to ... other wise I have a long post to write.. lol
Aric, gather your thoughts because I have a feeling you will be writing that long post.
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Re:

#2710 Postby StormGuy » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:well off to bed... hopefully tomorrow its will start doing what its supposed to ... other wise I have a long post to write.. lol


Good night Aric. Thanks for your expertise on here. I've learned a lot already since joining this site.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2711 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:28 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



It's time to call it, unless it springs back NW over the next few hours it's definitely left of track.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2712 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:31 am

T'Bonz wrote:OK, how in the heck can the NHC say a storm is moving WNW when in the past two hours, it moved WEST (19.9 at 11 PM, same at 1 AM. 65.8 at 11, 66.2 at 1)?


It really didn't wobble due westward over that time frame.

31/02:33:20Z 19 deg 46 min N 065 deg 47 min W
31/04:26:00Z 19 deg 51 min N 066 deg 06 min W
31/05:06:20Z 19 deg 55 min N 066 deg 12 min W

Based on radar and recon, what I think happened is that the 03Z advisory position was a tenth of a degree too far north (i.e. it was more likely near 19.8N instead of 19.9N).
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2713 Postby emeraldislencguy » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:32 am

off to bed here too
I an getting more concerned about it coming closer to nc
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2714 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:43 am

It could just be a weak "hand-off" between the Atlantic steering current Earl arrived on and the steering current about to pick it up. I think what this shows you is there's no strong ridge above Earl driving it west so therefore the eventual direction will be poleward.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2715 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 31, 2010 12:56 am

Sanibel wrote:It could just be a weak "hand-off" between the Atlantic steering current Earl arrived on and the steering current about to pick it up. I think what this shows you is there's no strong ridge above Earl driving it west so therefore the eventual direction will be poleward.
If it were just a weak hand-off, then I would think that the forward speed would be markedly slower.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2716 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:00 am

Fiona seems to be closing in on Earl, will be very interesting tomorrow to see the interaction between the two goodnight everybody.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-rb.html
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#2717 Postby Time_Zone » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:15 am

So is it starting an EWRC or not?
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Re:

#2718 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:27 am

Time_Zone wrote:So is it starting an EWRC or not?


I think so. There was no reports of a double wind maxima from recon however it was starting to show up in recon data that there might have been one forming. They would go through the eye wall and as normal the wind would pick up then outside the wall the wind would die down to lower 90kt range and then there was a small ring around the eye where the winds would spike back up over 100kts. So based on that I would say a double wind maxima is in the forming stages and the next recon flight should report it.
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Re:

#2719 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:28 am

Scorpion wrote:Wow continuing to deepen. 931

Too bad 90% aren't discussing that. The pressure has just nose-dived within the last 20 hours. Impressive tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane EARL - Discussion

#2720 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Aug 31, 2010 1:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
StormGuy wrote:Does it have to be over a 3 hour period since they normally have their updates every 3 hours? I know one thing, Earl is going to have to start turning more NW real soon to hit their forecast spot of 8AM. Maybe he will. We'll see.

6 hours.



2 hour intervals right now:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010


< snipped >

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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