ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[tolakram]

Yesterday I was concerned that the ridge to the northwest of Earl was much stronger than forecast, but today it seems more likely to me that the NHC forecast track will take place and hopefully for those in Nova Scotia (and my family in Maine) it'll remain on the east side of the forecast cone...

Yesterday you were a hero for suggesting it might get closer to the coast. Today, not so much. Funny how that works, isn't it.

[HurrMark]

Well, it's now at 21N so it's definitely showing a more NW motion that WNW, so it's looking better when it comes to remaining far enough off shore to miss the US EC and perhaps Canada, too, since it's forecast to have a more NE motion once beyond 45N...

Frank

Well, in the last 13 hours, it moved 13 ticks north and 22 ticks west...or about 300 degrees...in the last 6, it moved 6 ticks north and 11 ticks west...or about 298 degrees...if anything, it has moved slightly more WNW. Hopefully that will change later today.

You can't judge true motion that way when a storm moves out of the deep tropics, as each tenth of a degree north always represents 6 nautical miles, but each tenth of a degree longitude represents less and less the farther north you go.

I did adjust the direction by multiplying the westerly displacement by cos(20), with 20 roughly being the latitude. It's a tad off probably, but close enough...even at this latitude, a degree or two latitude will not appreciably change the distance between longitudinal points. Up in the 30s and especially 40s, yes, it has a more notable impact.

EDIT: Actually, you must have started to post right after I first posted this, since I realized the trig error right after the initial post.

[Sanibel]

The southern inflow might be affected by the islands. But more likely Earl is now encountering a different air quality associated with the front.

I think the track is like a car skidding into a turn. Whether it skids out a little or not it still makes the turn. What matters most is the weather feature blocking it from moving more left.

[eastcoastFL]

Earl is starting to get boring.

[shah8]

Sanibel, there's a WV pic that shows Earl hitting the dry air and then wave ripple throughout the dry air. Was massively cool.

[tolakram]

Here's a 30 frame WV loop. I don't think dry air is any issue at the moment, simply an ERC in progress.

30 FRAME LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[CourierPR]

The southern inflow might be affected by the islands. But more likely Earl is now encountering a different air quality associated with the front.

I think the track is like a car skidding into a turn. Whether it skids out a little or not it still makes the turn. What matters most is the weather feature blocking it from moving more left.

I just looked at the Ramsdis floater and he is still skidding more west than north.

[rosethornil]

I'm in Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and this morning, I made the arduous trek to Mall-Wart to buy water and some canned goods and such. There was *no one* else buying water this morning and their shelves were pretty well stocked. I was surprised to be "lone shopper on aisle 17."

Secondly, there's been very little in the local media about this (as a prior poster said). That's a puzzle. Any ideas what that's about?

Rose

[CourierPR]

Earl is starting to get boring.

Just what makes such a powerful storm posing a threat to the U.S. boring?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Shouldn't the 11am update be out by now? Or did I just miss it?

[eastcoastFL]

Earl is starting to get boring.

Just what makes such a powerful storm posing a threat to the U.S. boring?

Guess I got burnt out on it yesterday

[JtSmarts]

Shouldn't the 11am update be out by now? Or did I just miss it?

It's not on the NHC site yet.

[TropicalWXMA]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

[JtSmarts]

[Stephanie]

I'm in Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and this morning, I made the arduous trek to Mall-Wart to buy water and some canned goods and such. There was *no one* else buying water this morning and their shelves were pretty well stocked. I was surprised to be "lone shopper on aisle 17."

Secondly, there's been very little in the local media about this (as a prior poster said). That's a puzzle. Any ideas what that's about?

Rose

Complacency...

[HurrMark]

Looking at the map and interpolating, Cape Cod would be very close to a direct hit.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

It looks to me like an easterly shift has occurred in the forecast. Or is that the same forecast just with all the plots moved ahead in time from the last forecast?

[Stephanie]

It looks to me like an easterly shift has occurred in the forecast. Or is that the same forecast just with all the plots moved ahead in time from the last forecast?

I think it's the same forecast with the plots moved ahead. Still WAY too close to NC and point north for my liking.

[Wayne]

I'm in Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and this morning, I made the arduous trek to Mall-Wart to buy water and some canned goods and such. There was *no one* else buying water this morning and their shelves were pretty well stocked. I was surprised to be "lone shopper on aisle 17."

Secondly, there's been very little in the local media about this (as a prior poster said). That's a puzzle. Any ideas what that's about?

Rose

Complacency...

Fully agree with the complacency quote, I live in South Louisiana but still keep an eye on any storm just to make sure something out of the ordinary does not kick it my way

[KWT]

Thats still way too close for comfort, you've got what will likely be a major hurricane just a smidge east of the Outer Banks and thats assuming there are no more surprises in store in terms of track shifts to the west which can't be totally ruled out...its close enough to the coast that any sizeable west wobble would put the inner core onto the Outer Banks.