2003 Hurricane Season is Beginning

[wxman57]

As part of my job, I get to travel all around talking about hurricanes. Every single season around mid August I start getting these questions:

It's already mid August and we've had only 1 storm, are we reaally going to get any storms this year?

Or... Looks like the season is going to be a quiet one. You said we'd have 12-14 storms and we've only had one or two. Where are all those storms you've been predicting?

Well, I just sort of chuckle and tell them that although the hurricane season officially starts on June 1st, there normally isn't very much activity until the third week of August. Around August 14-21, there is generally a sharp rise in activity, followed by all-hell breaking loose in September through mid October. Most of the major hurricanes develop from late August through October.

This year, the Atlantic is primed for a very active peak season. The water is a good bit warmer than normal, shear is much lower than recent years, and we have a tremendous amount of Cape Verde disturbances this year compared to recent years Top that off with a flow pattern that may drive a number of storms into the southeast U.S. and you have one scary season ahead.

So for those of you who think that this season may be a "dud" - consider that we are just now beginning the heart of the season. About 80% of all storms form after mid August. So if this season were to follow the historical norm, then we would have had 20% of the season's total storms by now. We've had 5 storms so far, so if we used the historical norm, then we could expect another 15 storms. Now I don't think we're likely to see 15 more storms, but another 10 would not be unlikely. And I think we'll have our first major hurricane within 10 days. Look for quite an increase in activity over the next 3-4 weeks. Probalby 1-2 major hurricanes by Septermber 15th and 3 by the end of September.

Get ready, the season is just beginning!

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the post Wxman57. It points up what many seem to forget. Just because we have a quiet 2-3 weeks doesn't mean the season is over in any way shape or form. My prog of 15/8/5 is starting to look better and better, if you want to worry about numbers. I don't want it to come true but agree fully with your statement concerning the upcoming month. My fear is that at least one of those upcoming during the peak will end up being a true MONSTER that landfalls at least once, maybe twice. So far the pattern suggests to me, unfortunately, that the 2 landfall scenario is quite likely. I truly hope not or hope that if it happens it is not one of the intense storms we WILL have this year. Unless something strange happens this is going to be one of the most memorable Hurricane seasons on record, IMHO.

[JetMaxx]

Well said wxman57!! We've been far too lucky for too long....

I came onboard the internet in May 2000....there hasn't been a major landfalling U.S. hurricane since (the last was Bret in August 1999).
I could be fictitious and say I'm a good luck charm --but I'm not that foolish.

Four years is a long time between landfalling U.S. hurricanes...in fact, the last two times it occurred were 1986 to 1988 (ended by Hugo in 89'), and 1976 to 1978 (ended by Frederic in 79'). The last time we went MORE than four hurricane seasons between landfalling major U.S. hurricanes was way back in 1922 to 1925 -- and was ended by two major canes in 1926, one of which was the devastating Great Miami hurricane. :o :o

With no major U.S. hurricanes in 2000, 2001, and 2002...the odds are very high of a major landfalling hurricane later this season...somewhere between Maine and Texas.

[wx247]

I agree and echo the sentiments of others in saying that the post was great! So often we get fickle... when it is busy some say "this season will be gangbusters", when it is quiet some say "this season is a dud". Historically, we are entering the increase in hurricane activity and we need to remain vigilant -- especially if you live along or near the coast.