ATL: FIONA - Models

[gatorcane]

Trends are out to sea on this one which has been my thinking for several days now. As expected the Euro makes its shift right and is also well out to sea. Those in the US wanting a storm to come their way should probably start looking elsewhere.

[Vortex]

yeah gator, euro looks to be a bust!

[canes04]

The center appears to be south of the 5am position and moving due west.

[canes04]

correction, 8am position.

This may get into the NE Caribbean as a strong TS.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

304
WHXX01 KWBC 311240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA (AL082010) 20100831 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  54.4W   17.4N  57.9W   19.5N  61.0W   22.9N  63.8W
BAMD    15.8N  54.4W   16.5N  57.3W   17.6N  60.4W   18.9N  63.4W
BAMM    15.8N  54.4W   16.9N  57.5W   18.6N  60.3W   20.5N  62.8W
LBAR    15.8N  54.4W   17.2N  57.9W   18.6N  61.4W   20.5N  64.7W
SHIP        35KTS          38KTS          43KTS          48KTS
DSHP        35KTS          38KTS          43KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.5N  65.3W   34.1N  63.9W   41.4N  57.1W   47.8N  45.5W
BAMD    20.4N  66.2W   21.8N  70.3W   21.0N  74.6W   19.8N  80.2W
BAMM    22.5N  64.9W   25.5N  66.8W   26.4N  67.0W   26.1N  68.6W
LBAR    22.7N  67.4W   27.2N  69.3W   27.7N  68.0W   27.9N  68.0W
SHIP        52KTS          51KTS          52KTS          60KTS
DSHP        52KTS          51KTS          52KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.8N LONCUR =  54.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  22KT
LATM12 =  14.9N LONM12 =  49.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
LATM24 =  14.3N LONM24 =  45.6W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =  120NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[tolakram]

Completely ignoring the incoming shear?

As far as the models go, not sure I buy anything at this point. Either it follows Earl and gets semi-absorbed, or a completely different solution is in the offing. I have to favor recurve, but not really sure.

[Blown Away]

Trends are out to sea on this one which has been my thinking for several days now. As expected the Euro makes its shift right and is also well out to sea. Those in the US wanting a storm to come their way should probably start looking elsewhere.

Gator, suggesting a recurve on every storm will make anybody right most of the time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, Fiona looks even more out to sea than any other we've had....

[KWT]

Yeah because Earl took the much further west track its probably help save the E.coast from a major plowing into them...thats not to say Earl isn't a problem but Fiona could have been far nastier then even Earl may eventually become as we saw on some of the ECM runs.

The truth seems to be ending up as a fusion of most of the models, the GFS was right to catch it up, but didn't actually prog its development like the other models.

[CrazyC83]

Same front that grabbed Earl will scoop up Fiona it appears? Otherwise we could be in for a rather erratic track.

[fci]

Trends are out to sea on this one which has been my thinking for several days now. As expected the Euro makes its shift right and is also well out to sea. Those in the US wanting a storm to come their way should probably start looking elsewhere.

Gator, suggesting a recurve on every storm will make anybody right most of the time.

So will following climatology.
Most of the time the recurve is the right guess.
And when Wxman pulls together statistics that show the huge percentage of systems that DO NOT affect the CONUS he is telling us what "should" happen.
People love to reject the statistics. I love to listen to ther arguments against logic!
Keep on mind the "rarity" is when climatology DOES NOT hold true.
Every once in a while Mother Mature throws a curve ball at us eschewing climatology, just to keep us honest!!

[AdamFirst]

Seems like this thing has zero model support.

Bring on Gaston...

[5KOVERLIBOR]

GFS op with its seldom discussed solution repeats it in the 12z. No Fiona.

Not as exciting as a deep BAM to Belize... but perhaps worth a mention on the Fiona Model Thread.

[Comanche]

What's a hurricane nut to do????

[Steve H.]

Maybe Fujiwara around Earl to the coast /slam/then earl stall and go SW across FL into the GOM....LOL!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Seems like this thing has zero model support.

Bring on Gaston...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Indeed looks like she is going fishing boys, if she develops at all that is.

[ROCK]

Trends are out to sea on this one which has been my thinking for several days now. As expected the Euro makes its shift right and is also well out to sea. Those in the US wanting a storm to come their way should probably start looking elsewhere.

Gator, suggesting a recurve on every storm will make anybody right most of the time.

So will following climatology.
Most of the time the recurve is the right guess.
And when Wxman pulls together statistics that show the huge percentage of systems that DO NOT affect the CONUS he is telling us what "should" happen.
People love to reject the statistics. I love to listen to ther arguments against logic!
Keep on mind the "rarity" is when climatology DOES NOT hold true.
Every once in a while Mother Mature throws a curve ball at us eschewing climatology, just to keep us honest!!

He never pulled Fiona stats...if he did you would find a whole bunch of US landfalls.

SO we are to follow the CLIMO model everyone!! disregard any other solution since climo is the correct guess ......your argument holds no water my friend....

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks to be a little south of track moving west to me...If she hits that 01/000z forecast point on visual satellite I'd be surprised. Looks like convection building back toward the center again too so she's not being sheared that bad. Anyone know if Earl has increased forward speed in the past couple of hours? What time do this evening's Euro ensemble models come out again?

[fci]

Gator, suggesting a recurve on every storm will make anybody right most of the time.

So will following climatology.
Most of the time the recurve is the right guess.
And when Wxman pulls together statistics that show the huge percentage of systems that DO NOT affect the CONUS he is telling us what "should" happen.
People love to reject the statistics. I love to listen to ther arguments against logic!
Keep on mind the "rarity" is when climatology DOES NOT hold true.
Every once in a while Mother Mature throws a curve ball at us eschewing climatology, just to keep us honest!!

He never pulled Fiona stats...if he did you would find a whole bunch of US landfalls.

SO we are to follow the CLIMO model everyone!! disregard any other solution since climo is the correct guess ......your argument holds no water my friend....

A whole bunch of US landfalls and MANY MORE recurves.
I don't get how you steadfastedly refuse to use climatology as a guide to forecasting and discount it as much as you do.
Then to make a bold statement (even with a twinge of sarcasm) that we are to only use climatology.
You are the one who holds the contrarian view to this. And it seems we battle daily on this issue.
The balance I can handle through PM's if needed so as not to risk the wrath of Mods for being "off subject".

[Blown Away]

What time does the EURO run again?