ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[edgeblade]

I'm in Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and this morning, I made the arduous trek to Mall-Wart to buy water and some canned goods and such. There was *no one* else buying water this morning and their shelves were pretty well stocked. I was surprised to be "lone shopper on aisle 17."

Secondly, there's been very little in the local media about this (as a prior poster said). That's a puzzle. Any ideas what that's about?

Rose

Complacency...

Yeah people in this area seem to think that it can't happen here or won't happen here. The really last storm that I'm aware of to make a direct landfall in SE VA was the 1933 Chesapeake/Potomac storm which according to the track map I've looked at made landfall around VA Beach, though the article says OBX. Isabel in 2003 was a really close call for the area, but she also hit the OBX first. 1933 was much further north and east than Isabel in terms of landfall location. SE VA will be in big trouble when the next major storm makes a direct hit. Hopefully it never happens, but I think it will one day.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

According to the new CPA I just ran for Wilmington, NC versus the one I ran at 9am, there has been an easterly shift to the forecast buy about 30nm and an increase in time buy about 4 hours. So shifting east and moving faster?

[HurrMark]

It looks to me like an easterly shift has occurred in the forecast. Or is that the same forecast just with all the plots moved ahead in time from the last forecast?

I would say a smidgen west...at first, I thought its track would take it over Cape Cod, but it still slightly east of it. But it may be too close for comfort.

[Evenstar]

"Thats still way too close for comfort, you've got what will likely be a major hurricane just a smidge east of the Outer Banks and thats assuming there are no more surprises in store in terms of track shifts to the west which can't be totally ruled out...its close enough to the coast that any sizeable west wobble would put the inner core onto the Outer Banks."

Nice to see you back KWT. Though if you are willing to entertain the thought that Earl might hit us here in the southeast of the Mid-Atlantic (Hampton Roads), I know I should be taking myself straight to Walmart for supplies!

[fig]

According to the new CPA I just ran for Wilmington, NC versus the one I ran at 9am, there has been an easterly shift to the forecast buy about 30nm and an increase in time buy about 4 hours. So shifting east and moving faster?

Might have to run out to Johnny Mercer's to check this one out Thursday night!

[KWT]

The other thing that is obvious is Earl right now is weakening and probably undergoing some sort of reorganisation, though I've not had time to see recon reports I'm thinking its quite obviously a EWRC occuring.

Its just too close to call right now though!

Heading broadly NW it seems at the moment, though probably on the more 'west' part of NW rather then say the true 315 definition, say maybe 305-310.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

According to the new CPA I just ran for Wilmington, NC versus the one I ran at 9am, there has been an easterly shift to the forecast buy about 30nm and an increase in time buy about 4 hours. So shifting east and moving faster?

Might have to run out to Johnny Mercer's to check this one out Thursday night!

Well we shouldn't have to worry about it falling in the ocean anymore.

[CourierPR]

The other thing that is obvious is Earl right now is weakening and probably undergoing some sort of reorganisation, though I've not had time to see recon reports I'm thinking its quite obviously a EWRC occuring.

Its just too close to call right now though!

Heading broadly NW it seems at the moment, though probably on the more 'west' part of NW rather then say the true 315 definition, say maybe 305-310.

The Ramsdis floater doesn't appear to show a BROAD NW motion. It still appears to be WNW.

[KWT]

CourierPR, its not as easy to tell because the eye has pretty much gone now, I'm just trying to look at the overall thing which looks to be going about 305-310 at the moment, of course you could be right and it may well be going WNW...

Either way it really doesn't need much adjustment for this one to slam at least the Outer Banks...and history suggests thats a very likely thing to occur...reminds me of Hugo to be honest!

[CourierPR]

CourierPR, its not as easy to tell because the eye has pretty much gone now, I'm just trying to look at the overall thing which looks to be going about 305-310 at the moment, of course you could be right and it may well be going WNW...

Either way it really doesn't need much adjustment for this one to slam at least the Outer Banks...and history suggests thats a very likely thing to occur...reminds me of Hugo to be honest!

NHC at 11:00 am says WNW or 300 degrees.

[hurricaneCW]

The trough interaction will be interesting to see, the possible expansion of the system. Earl is going to be dangerous even in the best case scenario with high rip currents and swells. I agree that based on the current track, some wobbling to the west as it begins to speed north can make a huge difference for the outer banks and than maybe Cape Cod further north.

[KWT]

The faster and more westerly it moves now the greater the chances of a E.coast strike it seems, pretty simple.

What pressure did it eventually get down to by the way?

Also regardless of the E.coast threat we do have another possible Landfalling threat with Earl and thats with it possibly threatening Nova Scotia over the weekend, and its interaction with the upper trough will probably help it to stay a hurricane as it hits.

[JtSmarts]

The faster and more westerly it moves now the greater the chances of a E.coast strike it seems, pretty simple.

What pressure did it eventually get down to by the way?

I believe 931 was the bottom.

[lovestorms84]

This is the latest news for Hampton Roads on Earl... Although still up in the air, it looks good for VA

http://hamptonroads.com/2010/08/nc-coas ... icane-earl

[anarchiver19]

According to the 11:00 advisory NHC says a hurricane watch may be posted for portions of the Mid-Atlantic later today. Any ideas where and when? I'm in Va Beach.

[KBBOCA]

Looking at the map and interpolating, Cape Cod would be very close to a direct hit.

Wow. Getting awfully close to NYC / Long Island too. I wonder when NYC was last in the cone of a hurricane?

[abajan]

Fiona seems closer to Earl than before... or is that just my imagination? Is there any way to measure the distance / track changes in the distance?

Fiona is moving at 24 mph compared to Earl's 13 mph, plus, Fiona's convection has increased which makes it look closer to Earl. But they're about 900 miles away

http://freeuploadimages.org/images/d3i6 ... 46vpv8.jpg

Did the math!!

Hey nice trigonometry lesson, HURAKAN! Did your calculations take into account the Earth’s curvature? I mean, everything looks so darned straight.

[KWT]

The faster and more westerly it moves now the greater the chances of a E.coast strike it seems, pretty simple.

What pressure did it eventually get down to by the way?

I believe 931 was the bottom.

Wow the ECM ended up being 1mb out in the end then, models did a job seeing a very good set-up aloft for quick strengthening, Earl ended up bombing in the end.

Recon still finding pressures around 935mbs and winds do appear to justify 115kts so despite the eye getting clouded over the system still justifies a 115kts cat-4 from what is coming in from recon.

Motion from recon generally backs up the idea of 300 degrees.

[OuterBanker]

According to the 11am discussion I'll probably be able to fly my hurricane flags this pm.

[Three Blind Mice]

According to the new CPA I just ran for Wilmington, NC versus the one I ran at 9am, there has been an easterly shift to the forecast buy about 30nm and an increase in time buy about 4 hours. So shifting east and moving faster?

Might have to run out to Johnny Mercer's to check this one out Thursday night!

Famous last words!!!