Global model runs discussion

[flwxwatcher]

Todays 12 EURO brings future Earl further West and it looks really interesting for Future Fiona , as it looks like it caught under a ridge.





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[flwxwatcher]

Day 9 is above and here's day 10 of the 12Z EURO.





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[Ivanhater]

That system being discussed in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109113

[cycloneye]

On September 10th,peak day of the season,there are some candidates.

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't look like the Cape Verde factory is shutting down anytime soon according to the GFS and Euro..

Euro at 240 hours starting to spin another up



GFS

And ridging all across the Atl

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to have the Cape Verde factory open.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z CMC has a system north of Yucatan then goes NW into South Texas @ 120 hours....

[StormClouds63]

MJO still unfavorable.



Weather_Wx:

Does it look like September 7-21 (rough estimate) the time period we still need to watch for possible Caribbean/GOM development?

Do you still feel after October 5-10, we're in the clear on the western GOM coast?

[Wx_Warrior]

I think your 2nd set of dates the WGOM is clear.

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has a system north of Yucatan then goes NW into South Texas @ 120 hours....

the 12z cmc also shows this.
is this a reasonable possiblity? or is the cmc just spinning up another tc like it sometimes does?

[Migle]

I think it might just be a CMC phantom storm. I would wait for the EURO and GFS to show it more than once to even think about it.

[USTropics]

While the CMC is one of the more reliable models beyond 72 hours in regards to track and position of an already established system (statistically, the CMC has been the best performing model beyond 72 hours the past 2 years), it has been known, as migle pointed out, to spin up numerous systems that don't actually evolve into anything.

[Macrocane]

The other models have been showing a very quiet start of september, maybe they will start sniffing something on a few days but for now there's nothing.

[jaxfladude]

The other models have been showing a very quiet start of september, maybe they will start sniffing something on a few days but for now there's nothing.

A possible lull after D-E-F would be nice. Heck end the season right after Fiona is done.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO @ 240 hours...

[StormClouds63]

The other models have been showing a very quiet start of september, maybe they will start sniffing something on a few days but for now there's nothing.

A possible lull after D-E-F would be nice. Heck end the season right after Fiona is done.

I'm curious what happens with the "I" storm. Perhaps Igor will be nothing more than a deep-sea fisherman.

Every day that passes looks better for the western GOM. We only have about 5 weeks left.

[Stormcenter]

I would say more like 4 weeks. IMO

The other models have been showing a very quiet start of september, maybe they will start sniffing something on a few days but for now there's nothing.

A possible lull after D-E-F would be nice. Heck end the season right after Fiona is done.

I'm curious what happens with the "I" storm. Perhaps Igor will be nothing more than a deep-sea fisherman.

Every day that passes looks better for the western GOM. We only have about 5 weeks left.

[flwxwatcher]

GFS continues to have the Cape Verde factory open.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Yea.. the GFS keeps things busy into September for sure. I think once Earl leaves the set-up might also be ripe for some Home brew around the SE Coast Bahamas area.. Let;s see if that starts showing up in any model runs the next 3 or 4 days.

[Macrocane]

The latest run fo the GFS is crazy, it has 3 systems at the same time. I know it's in the very long range but it wouldn't be that surprising becasue september is the most active month, let's watch the trends in the next runs.

[flwxwatcher]

The 0Z run of the GFS has the storms lined up across the Atlantic and looks like another one coming off Africa.. September is looking very interesting.






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