ATL: EARL - Models

[xironman]

Just for laughs I am posting the NAM, almost looks like the trough is going to get a negative tilt.

[xironman]

That is a wild setup for coastal NE.

[TampaFl]

Current 0900UTC (5:00am) 8/31/10 of the 200-700MB (<949MB)steering flow for Hurricane Earl. Still looks like very strong high pressure holding over the Mid Atalantic States. If this does not break down soon (I know it is forcasted to ) how will this affect Earl's future track? Thoughts/comments welcomed.

[plasticup]

Current 0900UTC (5:00am) 8/31/10 of the 200-700MB (<949MB)steering flow for Hurricane Earl. Still looks like very strong high pressure holding over the Mid Atalantic States. If this does not break down soon (I know it is forcasted to ) how will this affect Earl's future track? Thoughts/comments welcomed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm6.GIF

I have never understood why Earl is supposed to turn, but the NHC and the models have always agreed on it, and we are starting to see its movement now.

[chaser1]

I'm with you, with regards to motion. Have tracked and chased hurricanes for years, but honestly would have regarded the current pattern of approaching the southeast side of a mid level 594 high, as a near given with regards to any N.W. or WNW motion, to even be pushed more to the left ( westward ). Since before Friday, the models have been pretty consistant on building this hefty mid level high on the Eastern Seaboard, and I for the life of me could not comprehend ( nor still really do ) how a more poleward motion would be expected. Yet all the models have been pretty solid and clustered with regards to anticipating a developing WNW and then NW motion, which it does appear is what we are seeing.

I almost wonder if Earl were to stall while undergoing its latest ERC, and if it's own upper high were to build even further thus temporarily bridging whatever upper ridging which might exist to it's north, AND if slow westward drift/wobble were to ensue for 12 or so hours....if that little difference in longitude would serve to be the "killer" in Earl just getting west enough to be more or less caught under the more predominent westward nudging of the Southeast U.S. ridge??

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

566
WHXX01 KWBC 311221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL (AL072010) 20100831 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.8N  67.4W   22.0N  70.0W   23.4N  72.0W   25.4N  73.3W
BAMD    20.8N  67.4W   22.4N  69.2W   24.2N  71.1W   26.6N  73.0W
BAMM    20.8N  67.4W   22.2N  69.7W   23.5N  71.7W   25.4N  73.4W
LBAR    20.8N  67.4W   22.4N  69.2W   24.2N  71.3W   26.5N  73.2W
SHIP       115KTS         115KTS         115KTS         115KTS
DSHP       115KTS         115KTS         115KTS         115KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.2N  73.8W   35.1N  70.6W   42.0N  62.8W   50.4N  52.6W
BAMD    29.6N  74.2W   36.1N  72.6W   44.3N  65.3W   53.5N  62.5W
BAMM    27.8N  74.6W   34.2N  71.8W   41.6N  62.9W   51.1N  53.6W
LBAR    29.3N  74.5W   35.3N  73.0W   43.2N  62.9W     .0N    .0W
SHIP       116KTS         105KTS          83KTS          56KTS
DSHP       116KTS         105KTS          83KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.8N LONCUR =  67.4W DIRCUR = 301DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  19.6N LONM12 =  65.2W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  18.5N LONM24 =  63.0W
WNDCUR =  115KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =  115KT
CENPRS =  935MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  175NM RD34SE =  160NM RD34SW =  120NM RD34NW = 160NM
 
$$
NNNN



[shah8]

00z and 006z HWRF has been harping a negative tilt after Earl goes by Cape Cod. Much earlier in the 06z and slams Maine.

[KWT]

Models look in good agreement for a close but not quite solution but they are still way too close to the east coast to have confidence, wouldn't take much adjustments for that to be a strike on the E.coast.

Also not looking good for Nova Scotia, could have a system as strong as Bill was up there soon...

[tolakram]

This model thread is frustrating. Was looking back to gauge the performance of the models and realized people linked to the images directly rather than hosting them at imageshack for free.

Do me a favor, if you can't bother to upload the images to imageshack then please don't link to them, it makes these threads useless for historical information.

[HurrMark]

GFS should be rolling in fairly soon...should be an interesting run...

[KWT]

I'm not sure the models will shift all that much from where they are now, we are getting close to the time where once again longer wobbles become increasingly important and the models just won't be able to latch onto such relativly small deviations.

[southerngale]

This model thread is frustrating. Was looking back to gauge the performance of the models and realized people linked to the images directly rather than hosting them at imageshack for free.

Do me a favor, if you can't bother to upload the images to imageshack then please don't link to them, it makes these threads useless for historical information.

We have asked the members to do this over and over. It only takes a few more seconds. I usually use tinypic to upload model or sat images.

[BigA]

12Z GFS run looks to southwest of 06Z. High looks to be surviving a bit more.

[jhpigott]

12Z GFS run looks to southwest of 06Z. High looks to be surviving a bit more.

how much further south and west? Are we looking at impacts in the eastern bahamas potentially?

[KWT]

GFS 12z does look a small amount west of the 06z run, not by much but it may well end up counting down the line a little further...

[BigA]

12Z GFS run looks to southwest of 06Z. High looks to be surviving a bit more.

how much further south and west? Are we looking at impacts in the eastern bahamas potentially?

Not a huge distance, 50, maybe 75 miles at most. If the run verifies I think tropical storm conditions will be experienced in the SE Bahamas.

[KWT]

Pretty much a direct hit on the Outer Banks on the 12z run, would probably see the W.eyewall reach the outer banks in that solution...

[HurrMark]

Looks a bit further east when approaching SNE.

[KWT]

Yeah the upper trough is a bit quicker on the 12z, if it was slower though it'd probably be to the west...

A real close set-up this one for sure!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This model thread is frustrating. Was looking back to gauge the performance of the models and realized people linked to the images directly rather than hosting them at imageshack for free.

Do me a favor, if you can't bother to upload the images to imageshack then please don't link to them, it makes these threads useless for historical information.

I've posted the model plots her from Storm2K, and the Ensemble models from Wunderground from Earl once a day since the weekend. Just look through my blog posts. I like to go back & look at them sometimes for storms that effected, or threatened to effect my region from several years ago. I find it helps to pick out trends towards the next major tropical or winter time systems that will effect the region.

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/