ATL: GASTON - Models

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

always on top of things. ..possible carib bound at that lat.....need some model support...

[Evil Jeremy]

Interesting. First BAM run isn't recurving. That's new!

[ROCK]

Interesting. First BAM run isn't recurving. That's new!

Gator will have nothing to post about!! couldnt resist....

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

More openings. JB et al did say this could be the year of the EC.

OT: Did CMC drop that wgom storm?

[Scorpion]

Thats not 98L the CMC is showing

[shah8]

That's not 98l on the cmc, it's the wave still in africa.





I think.

[ColinDelia]

I believe that actually is 98L in the 0z GFS at 144 hours; well sorta. More than the wave off africa anyway. Look at the 0z GFS 850 mb vorticity and you'll notice that 98L becomes or is part of the ITCZ and then at 144 hours the vorticity becomes more symmetrical.

The African wave comes off the coast in the GFS at 90 hours, moves NW and weakens.

GFS doesn't really develop either one at this point.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Blown Away]

More openings. JB et al did say this could be the year of the EC.

OT: Did CMC drop that wgom storm?

That's bold considering Danielle, Earl, and likely Fiona are going to miss the EC. A few more weeks the EC will be closed from west bound systems.

[Stormcenter]

Unfortunately a lot can happen in just a "few" weeks.

More openings. JB et al did say this could be the year of the EC.

OT: Did CMC drop that wgom storm?

That's bold considering Danielle, Earl, and likely Fiona are going to miss the EC. A few more weeks the EC will be closed from west bound systems.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

303
WHXX01 KWBC 311241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC TUE AUG 31 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20100831 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100831  1200   100901  0000   100901  1200   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  31.8W   11.8N  34.2W   12.2N  36.5W
BAMD    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  31.7W   12.0N  33.9W   12.7N  35.7W
BAMM    11.0N  29.5W   11.4N  32.0W   11.8N  34.5W   12.3N  36.6W
LBAR    11.0N  29.5W   11.5N  32.3W   12.1N  35.1W   12.8N  37.8W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100902  1200   100903  1200   100904  1200   100905  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  38.4W   13.0N  42.0W   13.8N  46.1W   15.0N  51.0W
BAMD    13.3N  37.1W   14.6N  39.7W   16.2N  43.3W   17.6N  47.4W
BAMM    12.6N  38.2W   12.9N  41.1W   13.6N  44.8W   14.4N  49.7W
LBAR    13.2N  40.2W   14.3N  44.0W   17.2N  47.3W   21.1N  50.2W
SHIP        43KTS          50KTS          53KTS          61KTS
DSHP        43KTS          50KTS          53KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  29.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  10.0N LONM12 =  26.5W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  23.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[x-y-no]

More openings. JB et al did say this could be the year of the EC.

OT: Did CMC drop that wgom storm?

That's bold considering Danielle, Earl, and likely Fiona are going to miss the EC. A few more weeks the EC will be closed from west bound systems.

Huh ... remarkable confidence there, considering that much of the EC is in Earl's cone and that it's pretty unclear what happens with Fiona after the stall (if there's anything left of her to stall and if the stall happens as forecast).

[Blown Away]

More openings. JB et al did say this could be the year of the EC.

OT: Did CMC drop that wgom storm?

That's bold considering Danielle, Earl, and likely Fiona are going to miss the EC. A few more weeks the EC will be closed from west bound systems.

Huh ... remarkable confidence there, considering that much of the EC is in Earl's cone and that it's pretty unclear what happens with Fiona after the stall (if there's anything left of her to stall and if the stall happens as forecast).

Don't get me wrong, I really admire JB and I think he is a great forecaster and I appreciate his candor. He made CONUS landfall predictions and he must of seen a pattern he thought would bring storms onto the CONUS. Recurve's just off the EC happen about every year.

[utweather]

I followed JB for about a month before accuweather was a paid site maybe more than 5 years ago. He over sensationalized everything and was wrong too many more times in that month for me to ever go back to take him as a professional and not an amateur like most of us here.. Its like he takes Ivan's long range maps and details the damage it will cause which probably isnt even approriate for 'talkin tropics' but to have a pay site, ughh.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z CMC develops a powerful westward moving hurricane of this wave in the upcoming days. It doesnt look bad this afternoon, but pretty decent.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

12Z CMC develops a powerful westward moving hurricane of this wave in the upcoming days. It doesnt look bad this afternoon, but pretty decent.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep model support on board now....

[ROCK]

looks like carib bound....hello islanders out there...

[tolakram]

Guess I'll start posting for historical lookup.

12Z run, 8-31-2010

72 hours Canadian



72 hours GFS



72 hour GFDL



72 hour HWRF

[srainhoutx]

UKMET develops this as well although somewhat weaker that the Canadian.