ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Exactly wxman57, thats what I was saying earlier, it really wouldn't take much of a difference, for example if EArl is say 1-2mph faster in its /NW motion over the next 36-48hrs and the trough takes say 4-6hrs longer then progged, you've suddenly gone from having probably TS winds to having the western eyewall over at least the Outer Banks if not further inland...

Its going to be close folks!

ps, Emily 93 may turn out not to be too bad a comprasion if the forecast comes close.

[SoupBone]

Anyone want to take a shot in the dark for possible conditions at Myrtle beach this weekend?

Bueller? Bueller?

[gboudx]

Anyone want to take a shot in the dark for possible conditions at Myrtle beach this weekend?

Bueller? Bueller?

Keep an eye on this page.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 8&site=ILM

[UpTheCreek]

Anyone want to take a shot in the dark for possible conditions at Myrtle beach this weekend?

Bueller? Bueller?

I think it'll be great in Myrtle Beach over the weekend. Maybe some higher surf, maybe not. It shouldn't have a whole lot of effect on S.C. except for rips, high surf and high inland tides to begin with, but by Saturday, I would think things would be good.

[Frank2]

Large outflow boundary seen in the current VIS loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[SCHawkFan]

Anyone want to take a shot in the dark for possible conditions at Myrtle beach this weekend?

Hot, humid, a little breezy at the beach with very rough surf.

[RL3AO]

MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 15:31:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 114 KT SE QUAD 17:19:00Z
EYEWALL IS REFORMING.

[HurrMark]

Large outflow boundary seen in the current VIS loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Yeah, see it clearly. I am amazed this is still a cat 4.

[KWT]

Large outflow boundary seen in the current VIS loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Take a look at some of the posts on the page before, the boundaries are coming from the outer part of the storm so whilst it probably does indicate conditions aren't as conudsive as they have been, it probably doesn't mean an awful lot for now given the EWRC that appears to have ben occuring.

That being said the W.quadrant does look a little weaker right now and there is a dry slot of sorts in the far W.quadrant.

The other thing to say is it looks like its heading right down the NHC path on that loop.

[TropicalWXMA]

Earl is spitting out a huge outflow boundary right now. This is certainly indicative of a weakening system. I also see a lot of dry trying to tear down the western half of the system. An EWRC could overall help the system ramp up because I expect it to weaken to a Cat 2 later today.

That outflow boundary is coming from a far outer band of Earl, not the inner core, and thus I doubt it will lead to any weakening of the system. In fact, I think it is very possible that Earl could actually strengthen slightly later today as it completes the EWRC it is currently undergoing.

[SunnyThoughts]

Eye looks to be clearing out

[KWT]

Yeah ST I was looking at the loop just now and thinking the eye is clearing out a little, goes along with the idea that the eyewall is reforming at the moment as well...

[tailgater]

Certainly not looking as impressive as earlier.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... aDHVxD.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

ITs about to ingest a bunch of dry air...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Maritimer71]

LATEST FROM THE CHC.

Canadian Hurricane Centre <chc-ccpo-en@mailman.ns.ec.gc.ca>

WOCN31 CWHX 311800
HURRICANE EARL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT TUESDAY
31 AUGUST 2010.

...HURRICANE EARL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...LIKELY TO
IMPACT EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 N
AND LONGITUDE 68.5 W... ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES OR 425 KM
NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 939 MB. EARL IS
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS... 22 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 31 3.00 PM 21.5N 68.5W 940 115 213
SEP 01 3.00 AM 23.1N 70.4W 942 120 222
SEP 01 3.00 PM 25.5N 72.3W 942 120 222
SEP 02 3.00 AM 28.3N 73.9W 948 115 213
SEP 02 3.00 PM 31.4N 74.8W 952 110 204
SEP 03 3.00 AM 34.9N 74.0W 961 100 185
SEP 03 3.00 PM 38.6N 71.5W 970 90 167
SEP 04 3.00 AM 42.1N 68.1W 973 85 157
SEP 04 3.00 PM 45.9N 63.7W 980 75 139 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05 3.00 AM 49.8N 59.6W 990 60 111 TRANSITIONING
SEP 05 3.00 PM 54.6N 54.0W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NO WARNINGS TO SPEAK
OF HERE AS EARL IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY CURRENTLY NO WARNINGS
IN EFFECT. AS EARL APPROACHES THE MARITIMES,
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK..AND FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT THIS COMING WEEKEND.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEORLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS EARL HAS BEEN WOBBLING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON BOTH
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE EYEWALL
DISPLACEMENT CYCLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF EARL SHOWS AN
AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

B. PROGNOSTIC FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

EARL IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS IT IS
BEEING STEERED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC. AS IT NEARS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, EARL WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 48-72
HOUR TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER THEY BECOME DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. THERE
REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF TRACK SCENERIOS LATER IN THE WEEK, RANGING
FROM A POTENTIAL LANDFALL AS FAR WEST AS MAINE AND AS FAR EAST AS
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

AT THIS POINT...PROBABLISTIC COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS (60-70 KM/H) OVER LAND
IN NOVA SCOTIA. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES A
CATEGORY-ONE HURRICANE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA..THIS ONLY
REFLECTS THE AVERAGE OF MANY SCENARIOS AND LANDFALL LOCATIONS 3 TO 4
DAYS AWAY. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EARL ENTERING CANADIAN FORECAST WATERS AS A HURRICANE AND
30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE IN NOVA SCOTIA.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

D. MARINE WEATHER TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO GIVE DETAILED IMPACTS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
31/18Z 175 150 120 160 120 120 60 75 60 50 25 45
01/06Z 175 150 120 160 120 120 60 75 60 50 25 45
01/18Z 175 150 120 160 120 120 60 75 60 50 25 45
02/06Z 175 150 120 160 120 120 60 75 60 50 25 45
02/18Z 175 150 120 160 120 120 60 75 60 50 25 45
03/06Z 165 150 110 150 100 100 50 65 50 50 25 40
03/18Z 150 140 100 140 90 90 45 60 45 45 20 30
04/06Z 130 120 80 110 70 70 35 50 30 30 20 30
04/18Z 130 120 65 90 50 50 25 40 20 20 10 10
05/06Z 140 140 65 100 35 35 20 30 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 160 160 75 120 25 25 10 15 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/MARCH

[Aric Dunn]

and that large outflow boundary is likely due to the dry air it rotated into and collapsed the convection..

[UpTheCreek]

ITs about to ingest a bunch of dry air...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Almost looks as if it's going to ingest a goodly portion of Fiona as well.

[CronkPSU]

what would the fujiwhara effect do the track of the storm?

[Aric Dunn]

what would the fujiwhara effect do the track of the storm?

well one of the variables is relative size of each system.. earl is larger and has a much lower pressure so its motion would change little in comparison to Fiona.

[ncweatherwizard]

Here's the 12Z sounding from Nassau:


Fair amount of buoyancy above 750mb, so we'll see some intermittent convection away from the center. You also see that the air is pretty dry above 750; this will help suppress the convection that does form far from the center.